For 35 years, the United States has relied on one theory of...
Robert A. Pape@ProfessorPape
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Jul 30, 2026
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1
For 35 years, the United States has relied on one theory of military power:
Forward bases
Air superiority
Precision strike
Rapid victory
The Iran war may have just broken all four
Read the Thread
Forward bases
Air superiority
Precision strike
Rapid victory
The Iran war may have just broken all four
Read the Thread
2
Since the 1991 Gulf War, American strategy assumed that overwhelming technology could defeat regional adversaries quickly and cheaply
Today, inexpensive missiles and mass-produced drones are placing U.S. bases, allies, and critical infrastructure under sustained pressure
What changed wasn't American technology
It was who now possesses precision
Today, inexpensive missiles and mass-produced drones are placing U.S. bases, allies, and critical infrastructure under sustained pressure
What changed wasn't American technology
It was who now possesses precision
3
The real question isn't whether America wins in Iran
It's whether Washington is still spending roughly $1 trillion each year on a military model designed for a world that no longer exists
If that's true, this isn't just about Iran
It becomes one of the defining strategic—and political—questions before the midterms
It's whether Washington is still spending roughly $1 trillion each year on a military model designed for a world that no longer exists
If that's true, this isn't just about Iran
It becomes one of the defining strategic—and political—questions before the midterms
4
THE END OF THE AMERICAN EMPIRE
How the Iran War Broke the Post–Gulf War Model of American Power
Thursday at 7:00 PM ET
• Live Zoom access
• Live Q&A
• Full recording afterward
Join me at Prof. Pape Substack
How the Iran War Broke the Post–Gulf War Model of American Power
Thursday at 7:00 PM ET
• Live Zoom access
• Live Q&A
• Full recording afterward
Join me at Prof. Pape Substack