This time I studied @joinyellowbrick's Elite (paywalled) 4000...
QuantCat@justquantcat
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Jul 08, 2026
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This time I studied @joinyellowbrick's Elite (paywalled) 4000 pitches with more insights and charts.
Read till the end to find out how to get 74% 1Y return (vs 38% for all Elite pitches)
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Read till the end to find out how to get 74% 1Y return (vs 38% for all Elite pitches)
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Elite pitches have a claimed average 1Y return of 38.4%.
For analysis I will be taking pitches from 2018-01-02 to 2025-07-01, which gives me 2290 pitches with available 1Y returns with a following distribution by sentiment:
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For analysis I will be taking pitches from 2018-01-02 to 2025-07-01, which gives me 2290 pitches with available 1Y returns with a following distribution by sentiment:
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🐂 Bullish (1,660 samples) • Mean: +45.4% | Median: +15.0% • Win Rate (Pos): 62%
😐 Neutral (540 samples) • Mean: +20.5% | Median: +4.0% • Win Rate (Pos): 53%
🐻 Bearish (89 samples) • Mean: +2.9% | Median: +12.0% • Win Rate (Pos): 60%
Overall (2289 samples) • Mean: +37.9%, close enough to reported on Yellowbrick's Elite feed.
As you can see from the chart below, bearish pitches suffer from occasional moonshots that destroy the overall performance.
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😐 Neutral (540 samples) • Mean: +20.5% | Median: +4.0% • Win Rate (Pos): 53%
🐻 Bearish (89 samples) • Mean: +2.9% | Median: +12.0% • Win Rate (Pos): 60%
Overall (2289 samples) • Mean: +37.9%, close enough to reported on Yellowbrick's Elite feed.
As you can see from the chart below, bearish pitches suffer from occasional moonshots that destroy the overall performance.
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Going further for the sake of better comparison I will be focusing on 1Y forward returns of bullish only picks and aggregating mean (average) returns which will help us construct a more accurate hypothetical portfolio and estimate actual time weighted returns later.
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Next, let's take bullish only pitches and look at return distribution by source:
1️⃣ VIC (Value Investors Club) (350 samples) • Mean: +79.9% | Median: +24.0%
2️⃣ Analyst (47 samples) • Mean: +44.0% | Median: -3.0% (High skew / negative median)
3️⃣ Blog (469 samples) • Mean: +39.0% | Median: +14.0%
4️⃣ Twitter (277 samples) • Mean: +37.9% | Median: +14.0%
5️⃣ Fund Letter (517 samples) • Mean: +32.1% | Median: +14.0%
Returns are somewhat equally distributed with an exception of VIC.
Analyst pitches have negative median which means that most returns are due to fat tails.
5/n
1️⃣ VIC (Value Investors Club) (350 samples) • Mean: +79.9% | Median: +24.0%
2️⃣ Analyst (47 samples) • Mean: +44.0% | Median: -3.0% (High skew / negative median)
3️⃣ Blog (469 samples) • Mean: +39.0% | Median: +14.0%
4️⃣ Twitter (277 samples) • Mean: +37.9% | Median: +14.0%
5️⃣ Fund Letter (517 samples) • Mean: +32.1% | Median: +14.0%
Returns are somewhat equally distributed with an exception of VIC.
Analyst pitches have negative median which means that most returns are due to fat tails.
5/n
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Next, let's look at distribution by Market Cap.
🏢 Large (>$10B) (150 samples) • Mean: +63.9% | Median: +32.0% • Win Rate: 80% (consistency)
🚀 Mid ($2B-$10B) (192 samples) • Mean: +91.3% | Median: +28.0% • Win Rate: 65% (maximum alpha)
🏗️ Small ($300M-$2B) (239 samples) • Mean: +49.9% | Median: +14.0% • Win Rate: 59%
⚠️ Micro (<$300M) (320 samples) • Mean: +17.8% | Median: -4.0% • Win Rate: 46%
6/n
🏢 Large (>$10B) (150 samples) • Mean: +63.9% | Median: +32.0% • Win Rate: 80% (consistency)
🚀 Mid ($2B-$10B) (192 samples) • Mean: +91.3% | Median: +28.0% • Win Rate: 65% (maximum alpha)
🏗️ Small ($300M-$2B) (239 samples) • Mean: +49.9% | Median: +14.0% • Win Rate: 59%
⚠️ Micro (<$300M) (320 samples) • Mean: +17.8% | Median: -4.0% • Win Rate: 46%
6/n
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Return distribution by category:
🔄 Turnaround (167 samples) • Mean: +49.3% | Median: +22.0% • Win Rate (Pos): 65%
💡 Special Situation (294 samples) • Mean: +61.2% | Median: +14.0% • Win Rate (Pos): 61% (High skew / big winners)
🚀 Growth (580 samples) • Mean: +47.6% | Median: +16.0% • Win Rate (Pos): 62%
🧱 Value (494 samples) • Mean: +36.5% | Median: +16.0% • Win Rate (Pos): 62%
💰 Dividend (13 samples) • Mean: +61.3% | Median: +45.0% • Win Rate (Pos): 92% (Note: Small sample size)
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🔄 Turnaround (167 samples) • Mean: +49.3% | Median: +22.0% • Win Rate (Pos): 65%
💡 Special Situation (294 samples) • Mean: +61.2% | Median: +14.0% • Win Rate (Pos): 61% (High skew / big winners)
🚀 Growth (580 samples) • Mean: +47.6% | Median: +16.0% • Win Rate (Pos): 62%
🧱 Value (494 samples) • Mean: +36.5% | Median: +16.0% • Win Rate (Pos): 62%
💰 Dividend (13 samples) • Mean: +61.3% | Median: +45.0% • Win Rate (Pos): 92% (Note: Small sample size)
7/n
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Year by year return distribution:
• 2018: +28.3% mean | 60% positive (40 samples)
• 2019: +45.0% mean | 59% positive (78 samples)
• 2020: +146.9%mean | 84% positive (134 samples)
• 2021: +13.0% mean | 41% positive (124 samples)
• 2022: +16.8% mean | 56% positive (123 samples)
• 2023: +27.5% mean | 63% positive (208 samples)
• 2024: +40.1% mean | 61% positive (702 samples)
• 2025: +53.8% mean | 66% positive (251 samples)
(See the screenshot for SPY return overlayed)
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• 2018: +28.3% mean | 60% positive (40 samples)
• 2019: +45.0% mean | 59% positive (78 samples)
• 2020: +146.9%mean | 84% positive (134 samples)
• 2021: +13.0% mean | 41% positive (124 samples)
• 2022: +16.8% mean | 56% positive (123 samples)
• 2023: +27.5% mean | 63% positive (208 samples)
• 2024: +40.1% mean | 61% positive (702 samples)
• 2025: +53.8% mean | 66% positive (251 samples)
(See the screenshot for SPY return overlayed)
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Distribution by Country (min 5 picks, bullish Ideas 1Y performance)
Top 10 by Country (Mean / Win% / Volume):
🇺🇸 US: +49.3% / 59% (921)
🇨🇦 CA: +35.9% / 61% (195)
🇬🇧 GB: +36.6% / 64% (141)
🇦🇺 AU: +52.7% / 74% (81)
🇩🇪 DE: +30.0% / 58% (26)
🇯🇵 JP: +43.3% / 82% (22)
🇮🇱 IL: +94.2% / 63% (19)
🇭🇰 HK: +92.4% / 74% (19)
🇸🇬 SG:+74.5% / 67% (18)
🇳🇱 NL: +30.6% / 33% (12)
9/n
Top 10 by Country (Mean / Win% / Volume):
🇺🇸 US: +49.3% / 59% (921)
🇨🇦 CA: +35.9% / 61% (195)
🇬🇧 GB: +36.6% / 64% (141)
🇦🇺 AU: +52.7% / 74% (81)
🇩🇪 DE: +30.0% / 58% (26)
🇯🇵 JP: +43.3% / 82% (22)
🇮🇱 IL: +94.2% / 63% (19)
🇭🇰 HK: +92.4% / 74% (19)
🇸🇬 SG:+74.5% / 67% (18)
🇳🇱 NL: +30.6% / 33% (12)
9/n
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Bottom 10 by Country (Mean / Win% / Volume):
🇱🇺 LU: -20.5% / 25% (8)
🇮🇪 IE: +0.4% / 64% (11)
🇧🇲 BM: +11.8% / 62% (16)
🇸🇪 SE: +21.3% / 86% (7)
🇨🇳 CN:+21.7% / 47% (17)
🇨🇭 CH: +28.5% / 75% (12)
🇩🇪 DE: +30.0% / 58% (26)
🇳🇱 NL: +30.6% / 33% (12)
🇰🇷 KR:+31.5% / 83% (6)
🇻🇬 VG: +34.0% / 83% (6)
10/n
🇱🇺 LU: -20.5% / 25% (8)
🇮🇪 IE: +0.4% / 64% (11)
🇧🇲 BM: +11.8% / 62% (16)
🇸🇪 SE: +21.3% / 86% (7)
🇨🇳 CN:+21.7% / 47% (17)
🇨🇭 CH: +28.5% / 75% (12)
🇩🇪 DE: +30.0% / 58% (26)
🇳🇱 NL: +30.6% / 33% (12)
🇰🇷 KR:+31.5% / 83% (6)
🇻🇬 VG: +34.0% / 83% (6)
10/n
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Distribution by Author (min 5 picks, bullish Ideas 1Y performance)
Top Authors by Mean CAGR (Mean / Win% / Sample Size):
• templargin: +110.5% / 60% (5)
• @pennycheck: +97.9% / 92% (12)
• @KevinLMak: +97.0% / 91% (11)
• @BoxLongs: +75.6% / 83% (6)
• Maius Partners: +69.8% / 80% (5)
• DO EM GO: +63.7% / 69% (13)
• Fairlight Cap: +63.6% / 88% (8)
• Gator Capital: +62.7% / 83% (6)
• Mason: +60.8% / 87% (15)
• Arquitos Cap: +60.0% / 50% (8)
• Mining Charts: +59.6% / 90% (10)
• Aurelion Res: +53.8% / 88% (8)
• yxd0950: +52.3% / 58% (12)
• The Oak Bloke: +50.0% / 63% (145)
• PPinvest: +48.4% / 69% (42)
11/n
Top Authors by Mean CAGR (Mean / Win% / Sample Size):
• templargin: +110.5% / 60% (5)
• @pennycheck: +97.9% / 92% (12)
• @KevinLMak: +97.0% / 91% (11)
• @BoxLongs: +75.6% / 83% (6)
• Maius Partners: +69.8% / 80% (5)
• DO EM GO: +63.7% / 69% (13)
• Fairlight Cap: +63.6% / 88% (8)
• Gator Capital: +62.7% / 83% (6)
• Mason: +60.8% / 87% (15)
• Arquitos Cap: +60.0% / 50% (8)
• Mining Charts: +59.6% / 90% (10)
• Aurelion Res: +53.8% / 88% (8)
• yxd0950: +52.3% / 58% (12)
• The Oak Bloke: +50.0% / 63% (145)
• PPinvest: +48.4% / 69% (42)
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Bottom Authors by Mean CAGR (Mean / Win% / Sample Size):
• casper719: -35.8% / 33% (6)
• D & A Metropolitan: -22.5% / 40% (10)
• nathanj: -12.3% / 42% (12)
• mrsox977:-11.6% / 53% (19)
• nychrg: -6.5% / 67% (9)
• devo791: -5.4% / 62% (16)
• NoNameStocks: -4.4% / 50% (22)
• Neglected Value Chronicles: -4.3% / 57% (7)
• Laughing Water Capital: -4.2% / 50% (26)
• Treasure Hunting: -3.4% / 47% (15)
• @puppyeh1: -3.1% / 54% (13)
• Maran Partners: -2.8% / 44% (18)
• Bill: -2.0% / 50% (16)
• SRK Capital: -1.6% / 33% (6)
• @BLyons151: +1.3% / 44% (32)
12/n
• casper719: -35.8% / 33% (6)
• D & A Metropolitan: -22.5% / 40% (10)
• nathanj: -12.3% / 42% (12)
• mrsox977:-11.6% / 53% (19)
• nychrg: -6.5% / 67% (9)
• devo791: -5.4% / 62% (16)
• NoNameStocks: -4.4% / 50% (22)
• Neglected Value Chronicles: -4.3% / 57% (7)
• Laughing Water Capital: -4.2% / 50% (26)
• Treasure Hunting: -3.4% / 47% (15)
• @puppyeh1: -3.1% / 54% (13)
• Maran Partners: -2.8% / 44% (18)
• Bill: -2.0% / 50% (16)
• SRK Capital: -1.6% / 33% (6)
• @BLyons151: +1.3% / 44% (32)
12/n
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Next I will create a curated portfolio with the following filters:
• Sentiment: only bullish pitches
• Market Cap: remove Micro Caps (<$300M)
• Category: remove value
• Source: remove Fund Letters
• Country: remove bottom 3 countries: Ireland (IE), Luxembourg (LU) and Bermuda (BM)
• Authors: remove bottom 4 authors: casper719, D & A Metropolitan, nathanj, mrsox977
13/n
• Sentiment: only bullish pitches
• Market Cap: remove Micro Caps (<$300M)
• Category: remove value
• Source: remove Fund Letters
• Country: remove bottom 3 countries: Ireland (IE), Luxembourg (LU) and Bermuda (BM)
• Authors: remove bottom 4 authors: casper719, D & A Metropolitan, nathanj, mrsox977
13/n
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Curated pitches: 611
Performance:
Mean 1Y: +73.8% (n=521)
% Positive: 74%
Year-by-Year 1Y Returns (Curated / Elite (bullish only)/ S&P 500):
• 2025: +93.1% | +53.8% | +12.0% (148)
• 2024: +76.9% | +40.1% | +25.0% (198)
• 2023: +42.7% | +27.5% | +26.3% (86)
• 2022: +20.5% | +16.8% | -18.1% (34)
• 2021: +17.9% | +13.0% | +28.7% (38)
• 2020: +219.1% | +146.9% | +18.4% (46)
• 2019: +48.5% | +45.0% | +31.5% (39)
• 2018: +13.5% | +28.3% | -4.4% (22)
14/n
Performance:
Mean 1Y: +73.8% (n=521)
% Positive: 74%
Year-by-Year 1Y Returns (Curated / Elite (bullish only)/ S&P 500):
• 2025: +93.1% | +53.8% | +12.0% (148)
• 2024: +76.9% | +40.1% | +25.0% (198)
• 2023: +42.7% | +27.5% | +26.3% (86)
• 2022: +20.5% | +16.8% | -18.1% (34)
• 2021: +17.9% | +13.0% | +28.7% (38)
• 2020: +219.1% | +146.9% | +18.4% (46)
• 2019: +48.5% | +45.0% | +31.5% (39)
• 2018: +13.5% | +28.3% | -4.4% (22)
14/n
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Comparing our filtered portfolio with Elite pitches we are getting more alpha almost every year, but to get more accurate idea of how portfolio would perform we can take average return of picks each year, taking 1y return and rolling proceeds for the next year picks and repeat.
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Simulated portfolio:
• Curated: $372,580 final value | +57.2% CAGR
• Elite (Bullish only): $166,675 final value | +42.1% CAGR
Yearly Performance (Curated / Elite):
• 2025: +93.1% | +53.8%
• 2024: +76.9% | +40.1%
• 2023: +42.7% | +27.5%
• 2022: +20.5% | +16.8%
• 2021: +17.9% | +13.0%
• 2020: +219.1% | +146.9%
• 2019: +48.5% | +45.0%
• 2018: +13.5% | +28.3%
16/n
• Curated: $372,580 final value | +57.2% CAGR
• Elite (Bullish only): $166,675 final value | +42.1% CAGR
Yearly Performance (Curated / Elite):
• 2025: +93.1% | +53.8%
• 2024: +76.9% | +40.1%
• 2023: +42.7% | +27.5%
• 2022: +20.5% | +16.8%
• 2021: +17.9% | +13.0%
• 2020: +219.1% | +146.9%
• 2019: +48.5% | +45.0%
• 2018: +13.5% | +28.3%
16/n
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Clearly our filtered portfolio is outperforming, even compared to bullish only Elite pitches, but you might say there is a lot of cherrypicking, so here is a pseudo out of sample test - let's see how picks that were not part of this analysis (since July 2025) perform.
• Curated (124 samples) Mean Ret: +32.6%
• Elite Bullish (469 samples) Mean Ret: +19.3%
• Unfiltered Elite (1,235 samples) Mean Ret: +14.4%
Benchmark: S&P 500 YTD is tracking around +8.0%
Not bad huh?
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• Curated (124 samples) Mean Ret: +32.6%
• Elite Bullish (469 samples) Mean Ret: +19.3%
• Unfiltered Elite (1,235 samples) Mean Ret: +14.4%
Benchmark: S&P 500 YTD is tracking around +8.0%
Not bad huh?
17/17