1/ As promised, here’s the second part of the tank refurb and...
Jompy@Jonpy99
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Jan 25, 2026
~13 min read
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1/ As promised, here’s the second part of the tank refurb and production research and BTRZ tank refurb/modernization capabilities! Since this has turned out waaaay too long, this first thread is mainly about T-90s!
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2/ Here’s the previous threads, first about APCs, where I also explained the fundamentals and methodology:
Jompy@Jonpy99
1/ Time to review Russian Armor Repair Plants (BTRZs)! Been a long time since the last time we checked them, and they’re crucial to the Russian war machine.
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3/ Then IFVs:
Jompy@Jonpy99
1/ Time for the second BTRZ thread! This time we’ll take a look into the state of BMP refurbishment and production rate.
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4/ And finally the first half of the thread about tanks, were we discussed T-54/55s, T-62s, T-64s and T-80s:
Jompy@Jonpy99
1/ It's time to take a look at Russian tank productions and refurbishment rates! Long time delayed, I know, but finally here! This first part of the thread will be about T-54/55s, T-62s, T-64s and T-80s. T-72 and T-90s and specifics on the industry will come in the second part.
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5/ And as always, first I want to thank @CovertCabal and @A36848080 in particular for helping with the sat imagery. Check Covert’s video on the topic as well! youtube.com/watch?v=e_Ft1-…
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6/ DISCLAIMER: many people will read this thread expecting to have all the answers and all claims properly backed by quantified data. Unfortunately, there’s a limit to OSINT, so I don’t have answers for questions like whether a T-72B hull can be made into a T-90"M" (obr. 2023).
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7/ As I already explained several times in previous threads, Russia has switched to infantry-intensive tactics, as they have yielded better results when it comes to taking bigger amounts of Ukrainian territory:
Jompy@Jonpy99
5/ With the introduction dealt with, and as always too, first I want to make some things clear: we have to consider that for the last year Russia has decisively switched tactics to infantry and light vehicles intensive ones.. x.com/wartranslated/…
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8/ Therefore, it’s not surprising that the share of Russian AFV losses, including tank losses, has dramatically decreased:
WarSpotting@WarSpotting
It's hard to believe we're 👀 5th calendar year of #UkraineRussiaWar. Among other things this means our end-of-year overviews are getting increasingly more colorful. The colors appear to tell us what we already know: 2025 is 📉 in almost all departments.
But there's more ⏬
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But there's more ⏬
1/
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9/ That said, they have most clearly risen in the last quarter of 2025, with more mechanized attacks:
kriegsforscher@kriegsforscherD
Today Russian marines from the 40th SMBr attacked near Pokrovsk. As a result they have lost 3 tanks and 8 IFVs.
Increased Russian attacks with AFVs have started since the 5th of October and there are no signs that they are going to stop.
From a friend of mine🔽
Increased Russian attacks with AFVs have started since the 5th of October and there are no signs that they are going to stop.
From a friend of mine🔽
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10/ This was already much discussed, so now we’ll focus on the specifics of T-72 and T-90 production/refurb/modernization and the likely future of the Russian tank fleet.
Wilson@WillKnowler
News Footage of Multiple Russian Tanks & IFV's at a Training Ground in the Zaporizhzhia Region - Fall 2025
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11/ Unlike most types of tanks, T-72Bs and T-90s were the backbone of the Russian tank fleet before 2022 (tho small numbers of T-80s were also active), which means most units were staffed with these.
Wilson@WillKnowler
Two Russian T-72B Obr.2022 Tanks of the 153rd Tank Regiment, 47th Guards Tank Division - Winter 2025
Source - t.me/zov_kam/17848
Source - t.me/zov_kam/17848
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12/ This also means that, for the most part, T-72Bs and T-90s were present in storage depots in relatively small numbers:
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13/ In the case of T-72s, almost half of those in storage were older T-72 Urals/As, pretty obsolete and mostly out of service bar some tank units of the Central Military District. In the case of T-90s, mostly original T-90s from the 1990s.
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14/ Which means that, for over 4,319 tank losses according to Oryx, and with just ~3,000 tanks in service before the war, Russia had to press back into service a lot of older tank types, as we already saw in the previous thread to replenish losses.
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15/ But of course, the most important thing when it comes to T-72s and 90s is that they are still being produced (refurbed and modernized in the case of 72s). Not just repairs like other tanks.
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16/ So, let’s see how things have developed lately: we can see that overall T-72s and T-90s have remained at stable shares of the Russian tank losses over the war.
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17/ Examining production rates will help us solve the enigma of how Russia is replenishing losses and how many of these tanks do they still have and produce.
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18/ But, before starting with the actual analysis of UVZ and its production capabilities, it’s worth looking at the how the industry managed to scale up T-90M production.
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19/ By now I think we all know about the classified UVZ documents leaked by @Tatarigami_UA and his Frontelligence Insight team.
Tatarigami_UA@Tatarigami_UA
Russia’s T-90 tank production in 2024 reached around 240 units, including both new and modernized tanks. But internal planning papers analyzed by Frontelligence Insight show Moscow’s plan to lift output by 80% and launch production of a new T90 variant. 🧵Our Special Report:
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20/ According to the leaked Russian procurement documents, there are plans to maintain and even slightly scale up Russian T-90M production and T-72B3 refurb/modernization rates.
Tatarigami_UA@Tatarigami_UA
5/ Another document proved decisive: a letter from Uralvagonzavod’s commercial director to ZOMZ outlined production plans from 2026 to 2036, detailing annual projections for new tanks, capital overhauls (CO), and modernization (M).
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21/ Despite many people’s skepticism, we have ample proof that by 2025 Russia has managed to scale up T-90M production (not refurb from older T-90s1) to ~200-250 units per year.
CIT (en)@CITeam_en
As Soviet-era armored vehicle stockpiles near exhaustion, Russia’s ability to build new tanks is under scrutiny. We investigated the current T-90M production rate and how it’s changed over time notes.citeam.org/eng_t90
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22/ Many people claim that we don’t have footage of these deliveries and that it’s all a Russia propaganda ruse. But we do have a lot of footage of T-90M and T-72B3 trainloads leaving UVZ.
Andrei_bt@AndreiBtvt
UVZ (Uralvagonzavod) released a report about the "New Year's" delivery of T-90M tanks. The delivered tanks have no differences from those supplied previously, but the video claims that in the future they plan to install an active protection system (KAZ), which supposedly will counter drones on fiber optics. It is reported that in 2025, "software developments were implemented with the introduction of an anti-drone mode." See more details - At KBM, they are trying to teach "Arena-M" to counter drones (Russian patent 2 853 544) t.me/btvt2019/24199…, everything is still in the "development" stage, and on the T-90M, the KAZ only rides around the factory testing ground. In the footage, the same T-72B3M with "Arena-M" appears again — whether it's a new machine or the one that was filmed for promotional videos (x.com/AndreiBtvt/sta…) is unknown.
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23/ I’m just gonna post a bunch of videos to back it up, predicting a lot of answers to this thread saying that I’m a deluded idiot.
D'Mithridates@Rhaescuporis
T-90M and T-72 obr 2025 dispatch from UVZ was announced right before the 9th May. 10-15 T-72 could be seen at a time, the train with T-90M is not shown at all, but probably tanks from the post above were part of the dispatch
t.me/uvznews/2995
t.me/uvznews/2995
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24/
D'Mithridates@Rhaescuporis
Two T-90M returining after field tests to UVZ
maps.app.goo.gl/9s28kEjemkmrjF…
yandex.com/maps/-/CLAYzFMc
maps.app.goo.gl/9s28kEjemkmrjF…
yandex.com/maps/-/CLAYzFMc
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25/
D'Mithridates@Rhaescuporis
At least seven T-90M MBTs on train in Bashkortostan, Iglino, Staraya Berezovka station. Obviously, a recent dispatch from UVZ maps.app.goo.gl/58NKxBtcbbCebC…
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26/ Obviously not everything is recorded, after all this is a military affair. Even just what we’ve seen is not all officially listed.
CIT (en)@CITeam_en
@WillKnowler Just some examples:
23 T-90M tanks—May 2024
17 T-72B3M tanks—July 2024
20+ T-80BVM tanks— September 2024
No official announcements were made by Uralvagonzavod regarding these deliveries
23 T-90M tanks—May 2024
17 T-72B3M tanks—July 2024
20+ T-80BVM tanks— September 2024
No official announcements were made by Uralvagonzavod regarding these deliveries
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27/ For what my word is worth, I too have seen trainloads of tanks coming from UVZ that haven’t been published, nor I can share publicly.
D'Mithridates@Rhaescuporis
@s2c172 @HoansSolo I saw videos depicting trains carrying 20-30 T-90M from UVZ. I'm not allowed to publish them, so you might not believe me. Another reason-increasing percentage of T-90M losses. With 10-15 pcs rate, it won't be possible (Oryx gives 97 lost T-90 overall) x.com/verekerrichard…
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28/ Some will claim that we have no proof of actual new production, that it’s all older original T-90s obr. 1992, T-90As and even T-90Ss seized from third countries like India that had ordered them.
NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦@NOELreports
Nice, the first T-90S loss. The T-90S is the export version of the T-90A without Shtora-1 (the eyes), but with additional Kontakt-5 reactive armour.
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29/ True, a batch of Indian T-90Ss in UVZ were seized when the war started, and some T-90As were modernized to T-90Ms.
T-90K@T_90AK
T-90A are infact being modernized into T-90M.
And they've been doing it for quite a while, now.
This picture is over a year old.
And they've been doing it for quite a while, now.
This picture is over a year old.
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30/ But the catch is that there were never that many older T-90s for all T-90Ms to be modernizations of the former. At all. Barely 1:2 T-90Ms were modernizations before the war.
D'Mithridates@Rhaescuporis
@Serendipit44446 @verekerrichard1 @gpward72 @SandwichesSo3 Even pre-war new build:modernized T-90M ratio was 1:2, not 1:4 as stated by IISS. And this is really not a big deal to increase hull production-this is the least sophisticated part of the process. UVZ has such capacity
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31/ There were never enough older T-90s produced (and not exported to other militaries) for T-90M numbers to make sense if they were all modernizations of older hulls.
AntaresTuitero@AntaresTuitero
@Jonpy99 As far as I know, T-90A and T-90AK production for Russian military was:
2004: 14, including ? T-90AK
2005: 18, including ? T-90AK
2006: 31, including ? T-90AK
2007: 31, including ? T-90AK
2008: 62, including 2 T-90AK
2009: 63, including 4 T-90AK
2010: 63, including 4 T-90AK
2004: 14, including ? T-90AK
2005: 18, including ? T-90AK
2006: 31, including ? T-90AK
2007: 31, including ? T-90AK
2008: 62, including 2 T-90AK
2009: 63, including 4 T-90AK
2010: 63, including 4 T-90AK
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32/
AntaresTuitero@AntaresTuitero
@Jonpy99 According to Алексей Хлопотов, serial production of T-90 obr 1992 was 105 tanks, though there were some number of tanks built before and after the serial production. If they are counted, total production is 120-125 tanks.
I've read claims that 100 of these are to be modernized.
I've read claims that 100 of these are to be modernized.
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33/
Tatarigami_UA@Tatarigami_UA
4/ Since the invasion began, Russia has produced an estimated 540–630 T-90M tanks, both new and upgraded. With at least 130 losses confirmed, between 410 and 500 remain in service - roughly 15% of all Russian tanks deployed to the front.
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34/ Russia has lost so far 48 T-90As, 11 T-90s and 152 T-90Ms. And to this we should add another 20-30% unseen losses, as always. oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack…
🪖MilitaryNewsUA🇺🇦@front_ukrainian
❗️Assembly point for damaged and destroyed equipment of the 🇷🇺Russian Armed Forces – T-90M, T-80BVM, BTR-82A, T-72B3. There is also a destroyed MT-T
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35/ Before the war some original T-90s and T-90As had been converted to Ms, some T-90As given to Syria and in 2021 they had around 85 T-90Ms and converted more T-90As once the war started.
Tatarigami_UA@Tatarigami_UA
3/ CIT estimates that Uralvagonzavod built 60–70 T-90Ms in 2022. Production reportedly rose to 140–180 tanks in 2023. In 2024, output may have reached 250–300 tanks. All current T-90Ms are newly built, and hull production does not appear to be a limiting factor.
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36/ We also found 112 older T-90s stored in the 22nd Central Tank Storage Base, which by 2023 were gone.
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37/ And it’s likely there were some more indoors and in other places, like these seen T-90As stored in Crimea in 2022 and given to Wagner:
WarTranslated@wartranslated
Wagner shares video of allegedly T-90A tanks being taken off conservation.
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38/ But then, Russia is estimated to field over 370 T-90Ms at the start of 2025 according to TMB2025. We see production of these new MBTs at UVZ.
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39/
D'Mithridates@Rhaescuporis
Here is a couple of news reports from UVZ, T-90M, turrets, hulls etc could be seen at the facility
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40/
D'Mithridates@Rhaescuporis
@HoansSolo @KofmanMichael @TheEconomist By mid-2023 there were only 89 T-90 MBTs at storage bases, by now they've gone already, probably by the end of 2023. While UVZ reported on two dispatches in March and May, both at least 10 pieces
t.me/uvznews/2688
t.me/uvznews/2613x.com/HighMarsed/sta…
t.me/uvznews/2688
t.me/uvznews/2613x.com/HighMarsed/sta…
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41/
T-90K@T_90AK
@KampfmitKette @Jonpy99 Most of it is still manually done, hence why you havn't seen it.
As for the semi conductors, it's all old chips, which has been out production for well over 10 years.
Which China can easily supply to Russia.
Your phone is more powerful than the chip found in a T-90M.
As for the semi conductors, it's all old chips, which has been out production for well over 10 years.
Which China can easily supply to Russia.
Your phone is more powerful than the chip found in a T-90M.
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42/ We see them everywhere in the rear, from Rovsgardia (let’s remember that after the Wagner coup in 2023 they started to receive tanks as well):
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43/ In the rear everywhere (@WillKnowler for lots more proofs in this regard):
Wilson@WillKnowler
@kemankes2121 @Jonpy99 In the rear, training grounds, testing, factories, repair places, reserve units, border protection, media duties etc
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@WillKnowler 44/ And of course in the frontline. Yes, losses have decreased a lot, but so have all tank losses in the last year and half.
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@WillKnowler 45/ Tho it’s worth pointing out that the last loss occurred a while ago and it didn’t have the most recent iteration of the T-90M, but rather an older upgrade package.
Wilson@WillKnowler
@Rebel44CZ @WritingFates @moklasen To add the last T-90M lost live in combat footage was 3 months ago at the start of October whch was quite an old model.
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@WillKnowler 46/ Then again, with the increasing danger of drones and a static front, tanks have increasingly been used as artillery pieces, which makes them less visible:
poe@poetaetrr
Much of the stationary nature of the frontline and the risk of drones have pushed armour roles for Ukraine as precise local fire support.
Here is a neat example of a T-80BVM with modular armor covered in foliage and parked on a crest to increase its firing arc.
Here is a neat example of a T-80BVM with modular armor covered in foliage and parked on a crest to increase its firing arc.
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@WillKnowler 47/ Some reliable proof from the actual frontline:
kriegsforscher@kriegsforscherD
@NotWoofers T-90M, T-62M 2022, T-72B3M 2025. Everything was used as artillery.
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@WillKnowler 48/ And also, turtle tanks usually are of the more modern types of tanks, despite some thinking they’re rather old, decrepit tanks that have no other use:
Wilson@WillKnowler
@NadsDogs @Jonpy99 @Rhaescuporis @T_90AK It's more the opposite as the majority of tanks used are newer B3M and BVM models. T-62s and especially T-90 are very rarely seen in assault tasks.
It's why ever decreasing levels of T-72B and T-80 stocks are seen as a major challenge for RU longterm.
It's why ever decreasing levels of T-72B and T-80 stocks are seen as a major challenge for RU longterm.
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@WillKnowler 49/
Michael Kofman@KofmanMichael
More recently Russian forces have renewed mechanized assaults. These are largely ineffective. Even so, ‘assault’ tanks take 30-40 FPV drones to stop, if not more (70 in one recent case). Mines remain the best way to immobilize armor and halt such attacks. 22/
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@WillKnowler 50/ For those saying that Russia not launching a massive mechanized attack is a sign of them having run out of hardware. See this: concentrations of assets are easily destroyed before they even reach the frontline.
Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦@bayraktar_1love
⚡️ The Lazar Group destroyed a large concentration of 14 Russian armored vehicles deep in the rear on the Lyman Front as Russian forces were preparing to launch a mechanized column attack.
The assault was completely neutralized before it even began.
The assault was completely neutralized before it even began.
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@WillKnowler 51/ And, while it’s been said many times before, I’ll say it again: these new tactics have proven more cost-effective at taking Ukrainian positions. Mobility is the key now, at all costs, and they don’t care about their own men.
Tatarigami_UA@Tatarigami_UA
21st-Century Dragoons: Dissecting Russia’s Motorcycle Assault Tactics
🧵Thread with key findings from Frontelligence Insight analysis on Russia’s Motorcycle Assault Groups: structure, tactics, training, equipment, battlefield performance, and the conditions that enabled them
🧵Thread with key findings from Frontelligence Insight analysis on Russia’s Motorcycle Assault Groups: structure, tactics, training, equipment, battlefield performance, and the conditions that enabled them
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@WillKnowler 52/ Finally, the massive Russian army size expansion since late 2022 has too much to do with formations having less armor than what the doctrine says.
John Hardie@JohnH105
Syrskyi: Russian forces in Ukraine grew by 7-9k per month in H1 2025 but then leveled out at 710-711k. Russia planned to form 14 divisions/brigades in 2025 but managed only 7 (and the 2 naval infantry divisions remain incomplete).
24tv.ua/situatsiya-fro…
x.com/JohnH105/statu…
24tv.ua/situatsiya-fro…
x.com/JohnH105/statu…
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@WillKnowler 53/ And with new formations are created and implemented, the same amount of armor has to be distributed among them:
D'Mithridates@Rhaescuporis
Another important thing to highlight, RuAF significantly expanded since 2022, so the same amount of armour is distributed throughout at least 1.5-times larger forces
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@WillKnowler 54/ As @Rebel44CZ explained so well yesterday in the quoted thread, Russia probably has a roughly equal tank fleet in size as it was prewar (with some caveats):
Jakub Janovsky@Rebel44CZ
/thread/
There is an ongoing debate about the current size of the Russian AFV fleet, losses it has taken, new production level storage+reactivation, etc.
Here is my take on the topic
There is an ongoing debate about the current size of the Russian AFV fleet, losses it has taken, new production level storage+reactivation, etc.
Here is my take on the topic
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@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ 55/ Tho I agree with @KofmanMichael here:
Michael Kofman@KofmanMichael
I generally agree with this interpretation of the data. My view is 'slightly larger,' but by a marginal amount. I think there are a few more tanks in the force than @Rebel44CZ numbers show, but the difference is not significant.
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@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 56/ In any case, this fits precisely with what’s been discussed many times: Russia is reconstituting and replenishing its core army far from the front, while using cheap meat and obsolete equipment to keep pressuring Ukraine.
Wilson@WillKnowler
Two Russian T-90M 'Model 2024' Tanks of the 90th Guards Tank Division at Training Grounds - August 2025
t.me/dan_dnr/53385
t.me/dan_dnr/53385
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@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 57/ Here’s a recent interview with some Russian tankers from the 1st GTA. Interesting to note that a commander says: “"With the advent of drones, we lost some of our equipment. We're now rebuilding our complement”. kp.ru/daily/27750.5/…
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@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 58/ To be honest, it shoudln’t come as a surprise:
D'Mithridates@Rhaescuporis
@WillKnowler @verekerrichard1 What we are seeing is strange, I'd anticipate slow but steady increase of T-90 share, not rapid decline. There are three possible explanations 1) They are withholding T-90M at the rear 2) Units equipped with T-90 currently not in combat 3) T-90 employed only as artillery support
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@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 59/ But back to the matter of whether new T-90M are actually produced or mere modernizations, it’s also worth pointing out that despite unfeasible low numbers, T-90As are still seen, tho very rarely:
Wilson@WillKnowler
A Russian T-90A with the 429th Motor Rifle Regiment, 19th Motor Rifle Division - March 2025
Source - tassphoto.com/en/feature/525…
Source - tassphoto.com/en/feature/525…
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@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 60/ Just like some other systems like T-80Us, they’re a critically endangered species, probably in the low dozens ballpark left in service.
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@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 61/ And also in UVZ, but not being modernized, but rather just merely repaired.
D'Mithridates@Rhaescuporis
Some recent photos from UVZ. Noteworthy, T-90A is being repaired at the facility. It means T-90 hulls are not urgently needed for T-90M production. Otherwise T-90A would be deassembled to undergo M-variant modification, not to be repaired
x.com/AndreiBtvt/sta…
x.com/AndreiBtvt/sta…
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@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 62/ And we can also tell apart newly made T-90M hulls from T-90A modernizations, and T-90a modernizations aren’t too common:
Rad1kal@BayesTheorems
@Rebel44CZ @Robert_DeLitro Less than 10% if you look at pictures. A batch in January 2024.
Probably ones with damage turrets as we see t-90a turrets outside uvz
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Probably ones with damage turrets as we see t-90a turrets outside uvz
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
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@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 63/
T-90K@T_90AK
How do you differante a T-90 and T-90A hull?
Via the reinforcements on other side of the drivers port.
T-90 Obr. 1992 don't have this.
Via the reinforcements on other side of the drivers port.
T-90 Obr. 1992 don't have this.
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@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 64/
D'Mithridates@Rhaescuporis
@WillKnowler @gpward72 @Serendipit44446 @verekerrichard1 @SandwichesSo3 We have 43 T-90A and 127 T-90M in Oryx list. If the production numbers were close to IISS or fully depend on old hulls, I think we wouldn't see so many T-90M on the frontline now
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@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 65/
D'Mithridates@Rhaescuporis
@GP99001153 I don't know where their numbers coming from. Some assesments are correct, but production numbers for 2024 looks unplausible. Since some upgrades were introduced that year, we can distinguish 2024-25 tanks from earlier models. And Vishchun's numbers don't match with what we see
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@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 66/ Even field repairs suggest active productions, as otherwise these spare parts would be extremely hard to find in the rear direct to the actual frontline:
D'Mithridates@Rhaescuporis
T-90M turret replacement carried out in a field workshop. More damaged T-90Ms and other equipment could be seen at the backgroung
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@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 67/ Russia also anticipated the problem of using Western-made components and switched to other sources not threatened by sanctions:
GrosTaga (T-72 enjoyer)@GrosTaga90
[🧵T-90M thermal imagers thread]
Unlike what we can sometimes read, the T-90M is not equipped with French thermal imagers (except a prototype back in 2017).
« In- deph » thread about the thermal imagers in the T-90M.
Thanks to @AkagiIJN and @Kontakt642 for their help.
Unlike what we can sometimes read, the T-90M is not equipped with French thermal imagers (except a prototype back in 2017).
« In- deph » thread about the thermal imagers in the T-90M.
Thanks to @AkagiIJN and @Kontakt642 for their help.
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@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 68/ With ALL THIS EVIDENCE to back up that there’s actual newly made T-90M production, let’s go back to Tatarigami’s info. See what the planned production figures are:
Tatarigami_UA@Tatarigami_UA
6/ At least 10 new T-90M2 tanks are scheduled for 2026, but production surges from 2027, peaking in 2028 with 428 T-90M and T-90M2 units, a near 80% jump from 2024. Between 2027–2029, Russia plans to produce, overhaul and modernize 1,118 T-90M and T-90M2 tanks
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@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 69/ We can also see what’s actually produced vs refurbed/modernized:
Tatarigami_UA@Tatarigami_UA
2/ Question (Q): Do we know what production vs. overhaul and modernization numbers look like?
A: Yes, at least for 2027–2029:
2027: 232 production, 58 overhaul/modernization
2028: 280 production, 138 overhaul/modernization
2029: 253 production, 147 overhaul/modernization
A: Yes, at least for 2027–2029:
2027: 232 production, 58 overhaul/modernization
2028: 280 production, 138 overhaul/modernization
2029: 253 production, 147 overhaul/modernization
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@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 70/ And the types of tanks, which surprisingly includes T-72B/B1s and T-72B3/B3Ms for T-90M2s:
Tatarigami_UA@Tatarigami_UA
3/ Q: Do we know which tanks are being modernized, and into what models?
Yes. According to the documents:
T-90A, T-72B/B1, and T-72B3/B3M are upgraded to T-90M2.
T-90A also modernized to T-90M.
T-72A, BK, B1, B1K, and BA are converted to T-72B3M.
Yes. According to the documents:
T-90A, T-72B/B1, and T-72B3/B3M are upgraded to T-90M2.
T-90A also modernized to T-90M.
T-72A, BK, B1, B1K, and BA are converted to T-72B3M.
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@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 71/ True, 2026 is an odd year for some unclear reason with minimum planned output, but the overall trend matches the current 200-250 T-90M rate. And it also shows intention of further improving T-90M capabilities, with the M2 version:
Tatarigami_UA@Tatarigami_UA
4/ Q: Do we have an estimate of T-90M2 production after 2026?
A: Not fully. One document indicates 31 units planned for 2027 - a threefold increase from 2026. With 290 total T-90M/M2 tanks scheduled that year, the M2 would make up just over 10% of output in 2027
A: Not fully. One document indicates 31 units planned for 2027 - a threefold increase from 2026. With 290 total T-90M/M2 tanks scheduled that year, the M2 would make up just over 10% of output in 2027
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@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 72/
Tatarigami_UA@Tatarigami_UA
4/ Q: Do we have an estimate of T-90M2 production after 2026?
A: Not fully. One document indicates 31 units planned for 2027 - a threefold increase from 2026. With 290 total T-90M/M2 tanks scheduled that year, the M2 would make up just over 10% of output in 2027
A: Not fully. One document indicates 31 units planned for 2027 - a threefold increase from 2026. With 290 total T-90M/M2 tanks scheduled that year, the M2 would make up just over 10% of output in 2027
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@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 73/ Some more information on the T-90M2:
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@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 74/
Andrei_bt@AndreiBtvt
New turrets for T-90M2 and "T-80" (Rivok-1 & Rivok-2).
Due to welding issues with the turret, UKBTM developed a new one with tighter tolerances.
UKBTM developed a new turret and a method for its manufacture for the future upgrade of the T-90M2 and the so-called "T-80" (Rivok-1 and Rivok-2).
The illustration shows a top-view comparison of the old "humped" T-90M turret and the new one.
They removed the hump from the roof and added it to the sides... added here, removed there, removed here, added there... such is the essence of the design thought here. But the real essence of this turret is visible in the comparison (top view of the standard T-90M turret and the new one).
The internal volume in the rear of the turret has been increased, although this was done in an extremely strange way, by widening that creates weakened zones – traps.
The slope angles of the frontal components have been reduced, the size of the armor packages has also been reduced, leading to a decrease in the safe maneuvering angles (against APFSDS).
In the side section, it is visible that the turret still retains a complex shape that hinders good coverage of the upper projection with protective devices. Not to mention the huge spent cartridge case ejection ports, which are a specific gateway for FPV drone hits.
Details -
btvtinfo.blogspot.com/2025/12/new-tu…
Due to welding issues with the turret, UKBTM developed a new one with tighter tolerances.
UKBTM developed a new turret and a method for its manufacture for the future upgrade of the T-90M2 and the so-called "T-80" (Rivok-1 and Rivok-2).
The illustration shows a top-view comparison of the old "humped" T-90M turret and the new one.
They removed the hump from the roof and added it to the sides... added here, removed there, removed here, added there... such is the essence of the design thought here. But the real essence of this turret is visible in the comparison (top view of the standard T-90M turret and the new one).
The internal volume in the rear of the turret has been increased, although this was done in an extremely strange way, by widening that creates weakened zones – traps.
The slope angles of the frontal components have been reduced, the size of the armor packages has also been reduced, leading to a decrease in the safe maneuvering angles (against APFSDS).
In the side section, it is visible that the turret still retains a complex shape that hinders good coverage of the upper projection with protective devices. Not to mention the huge spent cartridge case ejection ports, which are a specific gateway for FPV drone hits.
Details -
btvtinfo.blogspot.com/2025/12/new-tu…
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@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 75/ Which fits too with the ongoing research and production of new upgrade packages for T-90Ms (and also T-80BVMs and T-72B3s):
Andrei_bt@AndreiBtvt
UVZ (Uralvagonzavod) released a report about the "New Year's" delivery of T-90M tanks. The delivered tanks have no differences from those supplied previously, but the video claims that in the future they plan to install an active protection system (KAZ), which supposedly will counter drones on fiber optics. It is reported that in 2025, "software developments were implemented with the introduction of an anti-drone mode." See more details - At KBM, they are trying to teach "Arena-M" to counter drones (Russian patent 2 853 544) t.me/btvt2019/24199…, everything is still in the "development" stage, and on the T-90M, the KAZ only rides around the factory testing ground. In the footage, the same T-72B3M with "Arena-M" appears again — whether it's a new machine or the one that was filmed for promotional videos (x.com/AndreiBtvt/sta…) is unknown.
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@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 76/
Andrei_bt@AndreiBtvt
On the T-90M variant (conventionally T-90M rev 2024) one can notice, apart from the previously described changes, a new protection for the pallet ejection hatch
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@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 77/ It’s also notable that past 2029 there is no more planned actual production, but only overhauls and modernizations:
Tatarigami_UA@Tatarigami_UA
8/ 2029 is the last year marked “P” for production. Our team has speculated that 2030 may be reserved for factory reorganization, expansion, or modernization, which could explain the missing year
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@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 78/ While not mentioned at all, we also have to consider armored vehicles based on the T-90, like engineering ones:
T-90K@T_90AK
Russian workshop with T-80U and a BREM-1M(T-90 based Recovery Vehicle) Operated by 4th Guards Tank Division, March 2025.
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@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 79/ There’s no shortage of data about the actual technicalities of procuring parts for the production and modernization of all these tanks:
Tatarigami_UA@Tatarigami_UA
4/ Further analysis of procurement records showed Uralvagonzavod ordering IS-445 sensors for T-90M, T-90M2, and BMPT “Terminator” production - covering the years 2026–2036. Only 1 sensor fits each tank, allowing us to estimate production targets (Screenshot of a technical manual)
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@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 80/ Not just Western, OSINT and Russian sources back up this production rate, but also Ukrainian ones:
John Hardie@JohnH105
Maj. Gen. Vadym Skibitskyi, deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence directorate, said that in 2025, Russia plans to produce:
- 57x Su-57, Su-35, Su-34, & Su-30 fighter jets
- Almost 250x new-build T-90M tanks
- Roughly 1,100x new-build BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles & BTR-82A armored personnel carriers
- 365x new-build artillery systems
- "thousands of units" of unspecified modernized/refurbished equipment & weapons
- Almost 2,500 high-precision missiles (e.g., Iskander, Kinzhal)
pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/…
- 57x Su-57, Su-35, Su-34, & Su-30 fighter jets
- Almost 250x new-build T-90M tanks
- Roughly 1,100x new-build BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles & BTR-82A armored personnel carriers
- 365x new-build artillery systems
- "thousands of units" of unspecified modernized/refurbished equipment & weapons
- Almost 2,500 high-precision missiles (e.g., Iskander, Kinzhal)
pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/…
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@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 81/ And also the appearance since mid 2025 of ~40 T-90s in the yards outside UVZ, probably there precisely to be modernized according to this plan.
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@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 82/ AND also ~100 T-72Bs coming from the 1311th central tank storage base, which hadn’t seen activity for over 2 years.
Jompy@Jonpy99
It would appear whatever stock of T-72Bs held UVZ at their own facilities, is now exhausted, as the Russians have restarted to take T-72Bs stored at the 1311th base to be refurbished at that factory. The stock probably won't last long, I estimate they pull ~20 per month.
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@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 83/ Coincidentally, the amount of T-72Bs to be modernized to T-90M2s, as seen before, is similar to the amount in the 1311th at the start of 2025: 263 T-72Bs. Now it’s dropped since a hundred were already shipped to UVZ.
Tatarigami_UA@Tatarigami_UA
2/ Question (Q): Do we know what production vs. overhaul and modernization numbers look like?
A: Yes, at least for 2027–2029:
2027: 232 production, 58 overhaul/modernization
2028: 280 production, 138 overhaul/modernization
2029: 253 production, 147 overhaul/modernization
A: Yes, at least for 2027–2029:
2027: 232 production, 58 overhaul/modernization
2028: 280 production, 138 overhaul/modernization
2029: 253 production, 147 overhaul/modernization
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@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 84/ As a temporary conclusion, by now I think we all agree that Russia is indeed producing 200-250 new T-90Ms per year as of 2025, with some more modernizations of older tanks, and has developed ways to stop the previous armor attrition in Ukraine.
Wilson@WillKnowler
@NordlundMatthew @Jonpy99 @David_Hambling @HighMarsed @CovertCabal I see a considerable amount however sometimes in a more subtle way such as this 10th Tank Regiment repair depot focusing on the units T-80s and BMP-2s until the very end when they casually show numerous new T-90Ms lined up.
x.com/WillKnowler/st…
x.com/WillKnowler/st…
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@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 85/ In conclusion, by now I think we all agree that Russia is indeed producing 200-250 new T-90Ms per year as of 2025, with some more modernizations of older tanks, and has developed ways to stop the previous armor attrition in Ukraine.
Wilson@WillKnowler
@NordlundMatthew @Jonpy99 @David_Hambling @HighMarsed @CovertCabal I see a considerable amount however sometimes in a more subtle way such as this 10th Tank Regiment repair depot focusing on the units T-80s and BMP-2s until the very end when they casually show numerous new T-90Ms lined up.
x.com/WillKnowler/st…
x.com/WillKnowler/st…
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@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 86/ Just to make it clear, there is my estimation:
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@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 87/ Now, I don’t know how exactly they're gonna turn T-72Bs into T-90M2s, that’s far from my expertise. But there’s something else to consider, and that’s stored T-72s…
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@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 88/ That’s for now! More on that in the (I hope) third and last part of tanks, particularly T-72s, and BTRZs! Kudos to everyone, in this case specially @WillKnowler, @Rhaescuporis and @T_90AK for obvious reasons, and also Raptorama for making the graphics! Thanks everyone!
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@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael @Rhaescuporis @T_90AK 89/ Some people have asked me more or less the same questions after I posted this thread, so I'll add an addendum to answer these criticisms:
1) There's no evidence of new tank production.
2) Russia uses infantry because they ran out of everything else.
3) Numbers don't match.
1) There's no evidence of new tank production.
2) Russia uses infantry because they ran out of everything else.
3) Numbers don't match.
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@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael @Rhaescuporis @T_90AK 90/ 1) We've got footage of hull production, as much as we can expect considering it's always gonna be a state secret. Have you seen Americans, Chinese, Japanese, South Koreans, Germans... showing the full process of tank manufacture? That's right.
Bloomberg Whistleblower@bloombergbell
Uralvagonzavod or UVZ has been the backbone of the Russian war effort. T-34's, T-55's, T-72's, T-90's and T-14 Armata's have been rolling off its conveyer since 1936. More than 500,000 tanks have been produced or modernised by UVZ for the last 86years.
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@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael @Rhaescuporis @T_90AK 91/ I already posted this earlier in the thread, but we can even make out the year when tanks were produced, so there's no mistaking here.
D'Mithridates@Rhaescuporis
@GP99001153 I don't know where their numbers coming from. Some assesments are correct, but production numbers for 2024 looks unplausible. Since some upgrades were introduced that year, we can distinguish 2024-25 tanks from earlier models. And Vishchun's numbers don't match with what we see
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@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael @Rhaescuporis @T_90AK 92/ 2) Russia uses light infantry tactics for several reasons. True, one (among several) is that they no longer have massive Soviet-era stockpiles of armor to infinitely replenish losses. Even then, infantry has yield good results while being "affordable".
Michael Kofman@KofmanMichael
This recent advance appears to be made by dismounted infantry, and lightly motorized groups. Russian forces have progressed this year, and done so faster, with much lower use of armored fighting vehicles. This is the issue with treating armor availability as a key metric. 6/
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@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael @Rhaescuporis @T_90AK 93/ But even then, there's also constant, albeit lower scale, mechanized attacks, mainly when bad weather prohibits Ukr drone-based defense, and even outside that there's constant use of AFVs to support small-scale infantry pushes.
kriegsforscher@kriegsforscherD
The only thing that does not allow Russians to attack with AFVs at Lyman direction — river.
That’s why they are placing pontoon bridges to make their logistics better. And we destroy them with the help of aviation and guided bombs.
The situation is getting worse.
That’s why they are placing pontoon bridges to make their logistics better. And we destroy them with the help of aviation and guided bombs.
The situation is getting worse.
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@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael @Rhaescuporis @T_90AK 94/ Some drone units like Lazar don't even post footage of enemy losses, yet they're one of the most succesful ones when it comes to destroying AFVs and keep it up to this day.
Rob Lee@RALee85
Forbes Ukraine published the first article about Pavlo "Lazar" Yelizarov, a film and TV producer, who founded the National Guard Lasar's Group, Ukraine's top heavy bomber UAS unit. The group has destroyed more than $12 billion worth of Russian equipment, including more than 2,000 tanks and 3,000 IFVs.
forbes.ua/magazine
forbes.ua/magazine
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@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael @Rhaescuporis @T_90AK 95/ And it's only gonna get worse for AFV concentrations. For both sides, too.
Rob Lee@RALee85
General Syrsky says that Russia's Unmanned Systems Forces has 80,000 servicemen with plans to reach 165,500 in 2026 and almost 210,000 by 2030.
facebook.com/CinCAFofUkrain…
facebook.com/CinCAFofUkrain…
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@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael @Rhaescuporis @T_90AK 96/ 3) Finally, and on top of all the evidence along this thread, we have some solid numbers of deliveries of AFCs to the Central Military District in 2024, including 50 T-90Ms and T-72B3M.
Wilson@WillKnowler
@Rhaescuporis To follow on from the AFV numbers, we also have this regarding numbers of tanks delivered to CMD units in 2024.
tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/2…
tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/2…
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@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael @Rhaescuporis @T_90AK 97/ Now, the CMD isn't even the most well regarded and better supplied, and this is from 2024 (this number includes repairs and modernizations of tanks taken from active units).
Tatarigami_UA@Tatarigami_UA
3/ CIT estimates that Uralvagonzavod built 60–70 T-90Ms in 2022. Production reportedly rose to 140–180 tanks in 2023. In 2024, output may have reached 250–300 tanks. All current T-90Ms are newly built, and hull production does not appear to be a limiting factor.
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@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael @Rhaescuporis @T_90AK 98/ And this also tracks with the Russian MoD even being willing to put on sale tank and other AFV hulls that aren't even that badly damaged and could be repaired. Woudln't make sense if they were out of armor, right?
T-90K@T_90AK
Russian MOD put all of this up for sale as scrap in the Rostov Region, June of 2025.
Which included 4 T-80 hulls, a T-72B3, T-62M's and 11 BMP hulls to name a few.
Which included 4 T-80 hulls, a T-72B3, T-62M's and 11 BMP hulls to name a few.
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99/ Finally, I think it's obvious, and I already stated as much earlier, that assaults units get worse hardware, while formations of the core army, mostly stationed as a pretorian guard near Moscow and Leningrad and not wasted against Ukraine get the shiny stuff, like T-90Ms.
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100/ After all, the first T-90M loss didn't occur until May 2022, despite losing literally as many tanks in Febrary, March and April as it did in entire years after that first stage of the invasion.
THE END.
THE END.
Rob Lee@RALee85
The first combat loss of a Russian T-90M tank in Kharkiv Oblast. The T-90M is the most modern Russian tank in service.
t.me/Tsaplienko/7662
t.me/Tsaplienko/7662
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Some more evidence of T-90M hull manufacturing:
Arms Show Tracker@21aar_show
@verekerrichard1 I've shared this one multiple times since. It's from January 2023:
