Science/Research thread by @Jonpy99

1

1/ It's time to show the rest of BMPs and BTRs left in Russian storage. Here's my final thread on AFV counts.

2

2/ Here you have the numbers at the remaining storage bases storing BMPs and BTRs which I haven't covered until now, with outdated dates in orange. First BMPs:

3

3/ And BTRs:

4

4/ Here are the prewar quantities @HighMarsed and I found:

Jompy@Jonpy99

Actual numbers after a second count to confirm them are the following:

5

5/ After having posted in recent threads the total numbers of MT-LBs, MT-LBus, BRDM-2s and BTR-50s counted by me and @HighMarsed, and also the number of BMPs and BTR-60/70/80s at the bases analyzed along with @Vishun_military, now it's time to look at the remaining armor left in storage.

6

6/ As you can see, BMPs are mostly stored at the usual tank and IFV bases, such as the ones I already covered with newer footage bought by Vishun, aka the 22nd, 1295th, 111th, 2544th, 769th and 3018th/6018th.

Jompy@Jonpy99

1/ Analysis on @Vishun_military footage of the 22nd, 227th/769th, 1295th, 111th, 1311th, 3018th/6018th and 2544th Russian storage bases.

7

7/ And also at the 349th and 103rd/2546th, which are gonna be covered in this thread.

Jompy@Jonpy99

37/ I'll soon get one final thread with my estimates on cannibalization and remaining equipment in Russian storage. Other than that, unfortunately Vishun couldn't get updated footage of the 349th and 2546th/103rd storage bases, that by the latest footage I counted still held over over a thousand and half BMPs and BTRs, among other equipment.

I know they also want to get footage of those, so if that happens I'll collaborate with them again to bring you updated numbers.

8

8/ Most of the other BMPs are stored in artillery depots, like the 94th arsenal. Probably all armor stored there are artillery support vehicles like PRP-3s in the case of BMP-based armored vehicles:

Highmarsed@HighMarsed

There are 356 BMP based vehicles at the 94th (June 2023) . The vehicles look a bit different from regular BMPs and Russia usually doesnt store IFVs at the artillery bases, which is why I think these are some kind of support vehicles, although I cant confidently ID them

9

9/ And some actual BMPs are also stored in small numbers in bases that HighMarsed and I are unsure if are storage or active bases: the 245th, 187th, 5349th/104th, 7022th, 230th, 237th, 243th (bis) and 247th. These small bases have been almost entirely depleted by now.

10

10/ In the case of BTRs, as you can see in the table, while there are many at tank/IFV and artillery depots, they are also spread out over a huge number of other storage facilities. I couldn't find a clear pattern as to why is that.

Jompy@Jonpy99

5/ and BMP-based PRP-3s artillery observation vehicles: prewar vs January 2024. As you can see, barely any of these has been removed.

11

11/ Now that that's explained, let's get into the actual analysis. First I'll start with the 394th. Based on ground footage from a decade ago, equipment stored here is pretty rundown, but the lack of good footage make it impossible to prove it:

12

12/ This base was already covered by HighMarsed back in the day, and what he and @CovertCabal found was an increase in the number of stored BMPs:

Highmarsed@HighMarsed

5/ So far the total count amounts to 308 in 2021 and 295 in 2023. Interestingly ~240 vehicles have appeared in antother spot which was previously empty. Although I am not 100% sure I think these are BMPs, so their number increased by 226, eventhough the base has no garages.

13

13/ We discussed this while recounting together this base and came to the conclusion that footage of this storage base is always so mind-shattering that, although the spots we identified as more BMPs can't be certainly identified as such, we rather overcount equipment than undercount it. This picture is proof enough to understand what I mean by that:

14

14/ There has been speculation that Russia has been buying armor from Central Asian countries and that the increase in BMPs in the 349th, being so near from the Kazhak border, could be due to that.

15

15/ However, a new article from Vishun proved that Kazakhstan's stored equipment is still there since 2022, so maybe it's just that Russia (understandably) is consolidating part of their stored equipment:

⚡️ Vishchun Military ⚡️@Vishun_military

⚡ Exploration of 🇰🇿Kazakhstan's storage bases

Soviet Legacy in Kazakhstan: From Arsenal Vaults to Modern Challenges. Analysis and Perspectives on Military Equipment.

vishchun.com/post/doslidzhe…

16

16/ All in all, the number of BTRs in the 349th in October 2023 decreased from 276 to 259, and the number of BMPs increased from 316 to 600 (284 more BMPs in total). Once again, consider what I said about us being unsure of our figures of this base due to the bad quality of satellite imagery.

17

17/ Next is the 103rd/2546th base. The equipment stored in this one, like in the 349th, looks pretty rough already some years ago.

18

18/ In the case of this storage depot, in October 2023 the amount of BMPs decreased from 613 to 359, or 254 BMPs less. The number of BTRs apparently increased in 7 units, from 162 to 169. Some sections of the base are almost entirely empty after removing so many BMPs (and tanks).

19

19/ Now that the two main bases featuring on this thread have been shown, let's take a quick look at other interesting ones. Let's start with the 94th arsenal, with footage from January 2024. In this huge artillery base the number of PRP-3s and BTR-60 1V18/1V19s (unsure if the IDs are correct) has barely shifted. Just 26 less PRPs and, coincidentally, also 26 less 1V18/19s.

20

20/ No surprise here, as I already said in one of my first threads, these outdated vehicles are almost useless in a modern battlefield.

21

21/ Omsk also hosts another two storage yards inside the city, both holding more BTR-60s and 70s. Not a single one has been retrieved from these:

22

22/ I think I found some more specialized BTR-60 AND BMP-based vehicles at other artillery arsenals, such as the Sverosovkhoz or the 216th:

23

23/ With both the 349th-103rd/2546th and artillery bases covered, now let's first see a bit of the decline of BMPs stored at minor bases. First, the former Ukrainian depot near Sevastopol.

Jompy@Jonpy99

14/ Now, let's take a look at some bases to see actual drops in storage. First, the Sevastopol base, where there were only BMP-2s: prewar vs June 2022.

24

24/ I recently found footage of this one thanks to @waffentraeger. This base now only stored a bunch of cannibalized and totally broken BMP-2s, MT-LBs and BTR-70s, although there were still 8 apparently well preserved BTR-70s here as of September 2023.

25

25/ Another one is the 245th. Here there were only 31 BMPs left in July 2023, compared to 148 before the war:

26

26/ Another interesting base is the one at Novaya Stanitsa, in the outskirts of Omsk. This one could possibly be a training ground. Both BTRs and BMPs went down here. Here’s a good in detail analysis of said base:

OSINT Military Depot@OSINTdepot_i

In questo video si vedono ZIL-131, BTR-70, D-30, BRDM-2 e forse anche BMP-1.
Il deposito vicino #NovayaStanitsa (RU: Новая Станица), #Omsk, Russia l'ho diviso in cinque aree a cui ho assegnato un diverso colore e in cui sono presenti mezzi simili.
1⃣

27

27/ One final minor BMP storage base, and then we jump to BTRs: the 247th. Here they dropped from 50 to 14 by November 2022, including 3 clearly broken:

                            28
                        
28/ Now let’s see the situation regarding BTR-60/70/80s. First, as you can see in my table, most of the stored BTRs are 70s. 60s appear to be mostly specialized versions, as they are almost exclusively stored at artillery depots.

29

29/ BTR-80s were almost exclusively stored at the 22nd, and they are well on their way to extinction:

Jompy@Jonpy99

9/ It might look like this one also isn't that close to depletion either, but there are caveats. For starters, you cann that they unmothballed all their BMP-3s and almost all their BTR-80s. Of the latter ones, only 90 remain, 39 of them completely rusted, compared to over 429 by 2021.

30

30/ So, let’s now take a look at some minor storage bases that hold BTRs. Let’s start with the one at Saigrajewo: all 198 BTR-70s stored here were cannibalized at some point during this war. x.com/Jonpy99/status…

31

31/ This points to what I’ve said multiple times: BTR-70s are increasingly in use in the rear due to the increasing lack of more modern armor to replenish losses:

Jakub Janovsky@Rebel44CZ

#UkraineWar: Overview of Russian equipment losses added on 04/05/2024

Full list: oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack…

32

32/ Another interesting base is the 4998th. Here all 33 BTRs (some BTR-70s but mostly BTR-60 BTR-60 R-145BM) were gone by May 2022.

33

33/ Another BTR storage depot is the one near Rzhanitsa. 114 BTR-70s were stored here before the war, and all but one remained there by 2023 (Yandex doesn’t specify the date).

34

34/ At the 245th the number of BTR-70s also went down from 49 to just 2.

Jompy@Jonpy99

25/ Another one is the 245th. Here there were only 31 BMPs left in July 2023, compared to 148 before the war:

35

35/ One final base to look at and then let’s jump to the conclusion of this thread: the one near Yekaterimburg. Here the number of BTR-70s also stayed mostly the same: 58 before the war, 57 in September 2023.

36

36/ Here’s a table with the total count of all AFVs:

                            37
                        
37/ As I already said in my previous thread on BMPs and BTRs analyzing Vishun's footage, the rate of BMP cannibalization and removal from storage has gone up recently. massivhttps://x.com/Jonpy99/status/1784523892167414122

38

38/ Even with most footage in this thread being a lot older than Vishun's, you can see BMPs decreased in total from 6021 before the war to 4325 in the most recent footage. 1696 less BMPs in storage in a little over two years.

39

39/ And a huge share of what remains are broken vehicles or specialized versions which aren't useful in combat. And BMP-2s are almost gone, with most of what remains being BMP-1s.

40

40/ In the case of BTRs, BTR-80s are too almost entirely gone from storage facilities, and BTR-70s have slowly started to appear in the frontlines, though IMHO it'll still take for them to arrive in big numbers.

41

41/ With over 1500 BTR-70s in storage as of latest footage, they can still replenish losses with these for a long time, although it remains to be seen how many can be converted to the modernized BTR-70M version, with BTR-80 rear hull section and turret and a diesel engine, far better than the baseline BTR-70.

42

42/ I doubt we'll see BTR-60s ever, not in significant amounts. Maybe at some point we'll see some here and there, but that's it. They're too old, not as many as BTR-70s and probably mostly broken and/or cannibalized for spare parts to export to BTR-60 user countries.

43

43/ And after this and the recent BTRZ update thread, that's it for the counting and analysis of Russian AFV storage bases! Next and final thread should be about the odds of the Russian war effort in the medium/long term, based on how their industry will be able to cope with ever mounting losses and a smaller pool of replacement armor and spare parts and the like.

44

44/ Wrt this table, remember what I said in my MT-LB thread: a lot of footage is pretty low, numbers are probably much lower now (I estimate 300-500 in the case of MT-LBs).

Jompy@Jonpy99

36/ Here’s a table with the total count of all AFVs:

45

45/ I'm sooooorry, I messed some numbers. For example, I forgot to correct the prewar MT-LB number. Here you have them fixed, plus differentiating between working and broken armor in storage in recent footage.
Remember that at some bases like the 349th and the 103rd/2546th most things are probably broken, but the footage is too blurry to prove it.

1/ It's time to show the rest of BMPs and BTRs left in Russian...

Actions

What You Can Do

Actions

What You Can Do

More in Science & Research

More from @Jonpy99