NQ: probability of a double break I'm customizing the initial...

NQ: probability of a double break

I'm customizing the initial balance breakout report to see how often NQ breaks one, both, or neither side of the first 30m, 1h, 1.5h etc. of RTH

"Break" criteria is defined with a wick (not a close), and I'm using a lookback period of 3 years (772 trading days)

First 30m (9:30-10:00):
- single break: 61.92%🔵
- double break: 37.69%⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫
- no break: 0.39%⚪

First 1h (9:30-10:30):
- single break: 75.78%🔵🔵🔵🔵
- double break: 21.24%⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫
- no break: 2.98%⚪⚪

First 1.5h (9:30-11:00):
- single break: 77.33%🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
- double break: 14.64%⚫⚫⚫⚫
- no break: 8.03%⚪⚪⚪

First 2h (9:30-11:30):
- single break: 77.2%🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
- double break: 9.84%⚫⚫⚫
- no break: 12.95%⚪⚪⚪⚪

First 2.5h (9:30-12:00):
- single break: 74.35%🔵🔵🔵
- double break: 6.61%⚫⚫
- no break: 19.04%⚪⚪⚪⚪⚪

First 3h (9:30-12:30):
- single break: 70.73%🔵🔵
- double break: 5.05%⚫
- no break: 24.22%⚪⚪⚪⚪⚪

Though as you could imagine, the size of these ranges can surely be a key factor in how often they breaks

Using the first 1h range as an example, these are the probabilities when filtered by range size:

0-0.2% (14 days fit this criteria):
- single break: 92.86% 🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
- double break: 0% ⚫
- no break: 7.14%

0.2-0.39% (78 days fit this criteria):
- single break 65.39%🔵
- double break: 33.33% ⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫
- no break: 1.28% ⚪⚪

0.4-0.59% (186 days fit this criteria):
- single break: 69.89% 🔵🔵
- double break: 30.11% ⚫⚫⚫⚫
- no break: 0% ⚪

0.6-0.89% (274 days fit this criteria):
- single break 78.11%🔵🔵🔵
- double break 20.07% ⚫⚫⚫
- no break: 1.82% ⚪⚪⚪

>0.9% (220 days fit this criteria):
- single break: 80.46% 🔵🔵🔵🔵
- double break: 12.27% ⚫⚫
- no break: 7.27% ⚪⚪⚪⚪

Any questions about reports/timeframes etc. feel free to lmk - DMs are open, replies are on "verified only" bc of bots

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