23 space predictions for 2026 👇
Jack Kuhr@JackKuhr
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Dec 30, 2025
~3 min read
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23 space predictions for 2026 👇
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1) 6+ major space IPOs.
Vantor (Maxar Intelligence), Sierra Space, York, ICEYE, and SpaceX. Axiom as well, if it moves on in the CLD competition.
Blue Origin 2027 IPO chatter emerges.
Vantor (Maxar Intelligence), Sierra Space, York, ICEYE, and SpaceX. Axiom as well, if it moves on in the CLD competition.
Blue Origin 2027 IPO chatter emerges.
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2) The satellite manufacturing bubble pops.
Too many startups competing for a limited number of Pentagon contracts. Primes still rule this world. And commercial constellations are largely vertically integrated.
Too many startups competing for a limited number of Pentagon contracts. Primes still rule this world. And commercial constellations are largely vertically integrated.
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3) SpaceX’s market cap surpasses a $2.5T market cap in a wild IPO.
Later settles in the $2T range.
Later settles in the $2T range.
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4) A hyperscaler (Microsoft or Google) leads a large Starcloud round.
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5) Matchmaking 💞:
Amazon Leo buys Iridium for spectrum. Rocket Lab buys ULA to bridge Neutron. SpaceX buys Globalstar and cozies up to Apple.
Amazon Leo buys Iridium for spectrum. Rocket Lab buys ULA to bridge Neutron. SpaceX buys Globalstar and cozies up to Apple.
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6) Satellite-enhanced Bluetooth tracking gains traction.
Tracking becomes increasingly important. Even smaller assets, such as FedEx packages or suitcases, will eventually get tracked.
Tracking becomes increasingly important. Even smaller assets, such as FedEx packages or suitcases, will eventually get tracked.
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7) The Pentagon funds directed energy.
Officials bet it could be a better fit for Golden Dome than space interceptors.
Officials bet it could be a better fit for Golden Dome than space interceptors.
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8) Vast, Axiom, and Blue Origin win CLD 2.
Vast emerges as the clear leader after successfully launched the first commercial space station. BO wakes up a dormant Orbital Reef (leveraging Blue Moon and Blue Ring tech). An Axiom and Blue Origin partnership is explored.
Vast emerges as the clear leader after successfully launched the first commercial space station. BO wakes up a dormant Orbital Reef (leveraging Blue Moon and Blue Ring tech). An Axiom and Blue Origin partnership is explored.
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9) Space data centers lift the entire industry.
New funding and launch contracts flow in. The road for companies in SpaceX’s non-core markets (EO, CLD, satellite servicing, tracking, medium-lift launch, and Golden Dome) is further cleared.
New funding and launch contracts flow in. The road for companies in SpaceX’s non-core markets (EO, CLD, satellite servicing, tracking, medium-lift launch, and Golden Dome) is further cleared.
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10) China lands two orbital rocket boosters.
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11) EU space sovereignty fragments into stronger nation-by-nation sovereignty.
Countries push further for their own access to space and satellite assets. The European space startup trade picks up momentum.
Countries push further for their own access to space and satellite assets. The European space startup trade picks up momentum.
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12) AST SpaceMobile nabs a mega DoD contract.
Ends the year with a solid 35 sats in orbit, but short of its 45-60 satellite deployment goal.
Ends the year with a solid 35 sats in orbit, but short of its 45-60 satellite deployment goal.
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13) Falcon 9 launch total surpasses 2025, but only slightly.
2026 marks peak launches for the workhorse rocket.
2026 marks peak launches for the workhorse rocket.
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14) Eutelsat stock has a breakout year.
OneWeb demand further increases across European governments, making it one of the top-performing space stocks.
OneWeb demand further increases across European governments, making it one of the top-performing space stocks.
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15) Maiden flights:
- Neutron nails its maiden flight, launches twice in 2026. Does not land boosters.
- Stoke's Nova launches once. Does not land booster.
- Terran R and Eclipse first flights are pushed to 2027.
- Neutron nails its maiden flight, launches twice in 2026. Does not land boosters.
- Stoke's Nova launches once. Does not land booster.
- Terran R and Eclipse first flights are pushed to 2027.
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16) A European billionaire emerges and helps accelerate a local rocket program.
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17) SpaceX announces the first commercial payload scheduled for deployment on Starship using the Starlink form factor.
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18) The Blue Origin roadmap is revealed.
Bezos delivers a rah, rah, rah presentation, charting a course to the Moon with a crewed MK1 variant. Other non-lunar product lines are announced.
Bezos delivers a rah, rah, rah presentation, charting a course to the Moon with a crewed MK1 variant. Other non-lunar product lines are announced.
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19) New terrestrial data center build-outs hit extreme headwinds, further making the case for putting them in space.
SpaceX launches its first space data center prototype.
SpaceX launches its first space data center prototype.
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20) Rocket Lab makes its data layer pick. Stays clear of Starlink's core markets.
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21) Seed rounds roar back.
Private market funding swings back from mega funding rounds to seed funding as next-gen concepts built on top of new platforms emerge.
Private market funding swings back from mega funding rounds to seed funding as next-gen concepts built on top of new platforms emerge.
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22) Launch and pads are further deregulated.
National security priorities are cited.
National security priorities are cited.
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23) Interest in space/investing goes mainstream with SpaceX’s IPO and Artemis II.
Early SpaceX employees cash out and start/expand space venture funds, increasing $$$ in the industry.
Early SpaceX employees cash out and start/expand space venture funds, increasing $$$ in the industry.
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Let me know what you agree or disagree with!