For what it is worth, few industry leaders, less than a half-dozen...
Ethan Mollick@emollick
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Jul 22, 2025
~1 min read
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For what it is worth, few industry leaders, less than a half-dozen companies & no policy-making bodies are taking actions that suggest that they expect AGI is really a few years away.
This may be because they don’t believe it or they think it won’t matter much in the medium term
This may be because they don’t believe it or they think it won’t matter much in the medium term
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AGI being “a machine better than average humans at every intellectual task” or related concept.
You would expect to see changes in investment patterns & corporate strategy, crash R&D efforts to set up organizations to benefit from early AGI, policy structures put into place.
You would expect to see changes in investment patterns & corporate strategy, crash R&D efforts to set up organizations to benefit from early AGI, policy structures put into place.
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The “it won’t matter much” argument is that AGI will still require huge amount of time and effort to integrate into organizations and workflows, no matter how smart, resulting in years of work & gradual changes.
Needless to say, it also suggests no true AI superintliigence soon.
Needless to say, it also suggests no true AI superintliigence soon.
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In sum, the real world signals of how seriously people are taking AGI differs from the impression you get of the possibility of AGI on X.
Whether that means that people close to AI development know more or that they are vastly overestimating AGI possibilities is the key question
Whether that means that people close to AI development know more or that they are vastly overestimating AGI possibilities is the key question