If you are long $HIMS, as I am, and you are not asking yourself why...
Juan Pablo Montero@jpmontero88
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Jun 21, 2025
~3 min read
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1
If you are long $HIMS, as I am, and you are not asking yourself why is Hims & Hers one of the MOST shorted stock in the S&P 400 despite executing flawlessly? Or... what am I missing?
IMO you might be falling into the trap of over-optimism/confidence
🧵 1/10
IMO you might be falling into the trap of over-optimism/confidence
🧵 1/10
2
There is no doubt that $HIMS is crushing it:
✅ Revenues up 111% YoY
✅ 2.4M+ subscribers
✅ Net income positive
✅ FCF growing
✅ Expanding into GLP-1, mental health, Europe…
Yet short interest is at a record >60M shares (~33% of float)… Why?
🧵 2/10
✅ Revenues up 111% YoY
✅ 2.4M+ subscribers
✅ Net income positive
✅ FCF growing
✅ Expanding into GLP-1, mental health, Europe…
Yet short interest is at a record >60M shares (~33% of float)… Why?
🧵 2/10
3
First, let’s kill the obvious narrative:
❌ No, this isn’t Theranos 2.
❌ No, it’s not overhyped junk.
❌ $HIMS is profitable, growing, and executing better than 90% of its peers.
Now, set aside the usual concerns:
❌ Regulatory risk.
❌ Margin pressure.
❌ Competition.
📉Let’s be honest, there are companies with worse fundamentals, weaker growth, thinner margins, and trading at higher multiples… Yet they don’t carry even half the short interest HIMS does.
IMO, this extreme bearish positioning it’s not about fundamentals… It’s narrative. It’s structure. It’s tactical.
🔎Let’s try analyze the facts
🧵 3/10
❌ No, this isn’t Theranos 2.
❌ No, it’s not overhyped junk.
❌ $HIMS is profitable, growing, and executing better than 90% of its peers.
Now, set aside the usual concerns:
❌ Regulatory risk.
❌ Margin pressure.
❌ Competition.
📉Let’s be honest, there are companies with worse fundamentals, weaker growth, thinner margins, and trading at higher multiples… Yet they don’t carry even half the short interest HIMS does.
IMO, this extreme bearish positioning it’s not about fundamentals… It’s narrative. It’s structure. It’s tactical.
🔎Let’s try analyze the facts
🧵 3/10
4
💎 $HIMS is a retail darling
It has strong support from retail investors (Reddit, X/FinTwit, TikTok…). Unfortunately, many don't even know what they are holding..
That brings 2 side effects:
1️⃣Heavy concentration of small, very bullish holders → poor ability to absorb drawdowns
2️⃣Strong narrative: “the Tesla of health”, “the Netflix of telemedicine”...
....Institutions love shorting euphoric stories with not proven moats
🧵 4/10
It has strong support from retail investors (Reddit, X/FinTwit, TikTok…). Unfortunately, many don't even know what they are holding..
That brings 2 side effects:
1️⃣Heavy concentration of small, very bullish holders → poor ability to absorb drawdowns
2️⃣Strong narrative: “the Tesla of health”, “the Netflix of telemedicine”...
....Institutions love shorting euphoric stories with not proven moats
🧵 4/10
5
🔥 Binary risk + clear catalyst
The FDA decision on compounded semaglutide, a key growth driver, already came, and it wasn’t favorable.
It could hit the core of $HIMS’s recent growth narrative… or simply fuel fear that it might.
No wide moat (yet). High dependency. Visible risk.
Exactly the kind of setup short sellers love to spin into fear.
🧵 5/10
The FDA decision on compounded semaglutide, a key growth driver, already came, and it wasn’t favorable.
It could hit the core of $HIMS’s recent growth narrative… or simply fuel fear that it might.
No wide moat (yet). High dependency. Visible risk.
Exactly the kind of setup short sellers love to spin into fear.
🧵 5/10
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🔁 Some shorts could just be hedges against longs elsewhere
Funds long $TDOC, $CVS, $LLY, $NVO or other bigger Health names might short $HIMS for balance:
> Sector correlation without sectoral strength
>High beta = great volatility buffer
> Uninsured cash-pay model = riskier than insurance-backed players
Not all shorts are “this will go to zero”. Many could just be smart sector hedging.
🧵6/10
Funds long $TDOC, $CVS, $LLY, $NVO or other bigger Health names might short $HIMS for balance:
> Sector correlation without sectoral strength
>High beta = great volatility buffer
> Uninsured cash-pay model = riskier than insurance-backed players
Not all shorts are “this will go to zero”. Many could just be smart sector hedging.
🧵6/10
7
📉 High liquidity + low institutional float = easy to push around
Despite being in the S&P 400:
-> Insiders sold + Retail owns much of the float + Few big funds hold core positions
This makes $HIMS easy to squeeze 📈… but also to crash📉
🧵 7/10
Despite being in the S&P 400:
-> Insiders sold + Retail owns much of the float + Few big funds hold core positions
This makes $HIMS easy to squeeze 📈… but also to crash📉
🧵 7/10
8
📊 “GLP-1 story is pull-forward, not sustainable”
🐻Bears aren’t always saying it’s doomed. They’re saying:
“HIMS front-loaded 3 years of demand into 1. What you call exponential growth, I call unsustainable pull-forward.”
That's a narrative of imminent slowdown, and shorts could be betting the market hasn’t priced it in yet.
🧵 8/10
🐻Bears aren’t always saying it’s doomed. They’re saying:
“HIMS front-loaded 3 years of demand into 1. What you call exponential growth, I call unsustainable pull-forward.”
That's a narrative of imminent slowdown, and shorts could be betting the market hasn’t priced it in yet.
🧵 8/10
9
🧨 High visibility = easy target
Tons of media exposure for a small/mid-cap:
🔊 CNBC, Benzinga, FinTwit love talking about it
🔊 Detailed KPIs & forward guidance
🔊 Heavy attention on earnings and launches
One misstep = amplified effect. Short sellers can plan attacks better.
🧵 9/10
Tons of media exposure for a small/mid-cap:
🔊 CNBC, Benzinga, FinTwit love talking about it
🔊 Detailed KPIs & forward guidance
🔊 Heavy attention on earnings and launches
One misstep = amplified effect. Short sellers can plan attacks better.
🧵 9/10
10
🧠 So… summing it all up, IMO $HIMS is short-friendly for reasons that go far beyond business fundamentals.
This isn’t just about the business model, it’s about:
• Binary risks
• Media spotlight
• Retail hype
✅ What to take from this?
First of all, don’t assume short sellers “know something” we don’t, many could just be hedging volatility.
Secondly, know who you're trading with, lots of weak hands in this stock. So… expect volatility going forward. Don't panic, take advantage
But on the other hand, also be ready:
• High short interest = potential for a sharp squeeze on any upside surprise
🧵 10/10
This isn’t just about the business model, it’s about:
• Binary risks
• Media spotlight
• Retail hype
✅ What to take from this?
First of all, don’t assume short sellers “know something” we don’t, many could just be hedging volatility.
Secondly, know who you're trading with, lots of weak hands in this stock. So… expect volatility going forward. Don't panic, take advantage
But on the other hand, also be ready:
• High short interest = potential for a sharp squeeze on any upside surprise
🧵 10/10