Michael Burry just shorted this stock with 49% of his portfolio...
Bravos Research@bravosresearch
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Jun 06, 2025
~4 min read
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Michael Burry just shorted this stock with 49% of his portfolio
This is a BIG move, buckle up.
A thread 🧵
This is a BIG move, buckle up.
A thread 🧵
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2/ Michael Burry just made his biggest move of Q1 2025:
Shorting 900,000 shares of Nvidia through put options
That’s almost 50% of his entire portfolio betting against one of the largest US company
Shorting 900,000 shares of Nvidia through put options
That’s almost 50% of his entire portfolio betting against one of the largest US company
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3/ For context, Nvidia now makes up 6.5% of the S&P 500
And has been one of the biggest drivers of the market over the past 2 years
Just in the last month, it rallied another 20%
So is Burry seeing something the rest of the market is missing?
And has been one of the biggest drivers of the market over the past 2 years
Just in the last month, it rallied another 20%
So is Burry seeing something the rest of the market is missing?
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4/ Zooming out, Nvidia’s still one of the most explosive stories in the market
It’s up 960% from Jan 2023 to its peak in Jan 2025
But earlier this year, the stock began to decline
And 2 major concerns were behind the move
It’s up 960% from Jan 2023 to its peak in Jan 2025
But earlier this year, the stock began to decline
And 2 major concerns were behind the move
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5/ First, DeepSeek, a new large language model, claimed better performance at lower cost, without needing Nvidia chips
Second, the US banned Nvidia’s top AI chips from being exported to China
These fears drove 40%+ correction in the stock
Second, the US banned Nvidia’s top AI chips from being exported to China
These fears drove 40%+ correction in the stock
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6/ Nvidia has since recovered most of those losses, but the concerns haven’t gone away
They could still weigh on future sales
And that’s likely why Burry made his move
So should we be following his lead on this Nvidia short?
They could still weigh on future sales
And that’s likely why Burry made his move
So should we be following his lead on this Nvidia short?
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So far in Q2 2025, we’ve closed 17 winning trades avg. 27.5% profit and only 11 losses avg. 7%
That’s a big outperformance compared to the flat S&P 500
View our track record for FREE at:
bit.ly/BravosResearch
8
8/ Now let’s look at the data
The lines in the chart below shows Nvidia’s sales vs. capital expenditures from Amazon, Google, and Microsoft - the top 3 cloud providers
The correlation is crystal clear
The lines in the chart below shows Nvidia’s sales vs. capital expenditures from Amazon, Google, and Microsoft - the top 3 cloud providers
The correlation is crystal clear
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9/ The capital expenditure surge has been the key driver behind Nvidia’s 941% earnings growth over the last 2 years
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10/ All of this earnings growth is coming from a few tech giants allocating huge capital into AI infrastructure
And this is translating into strong demand for NVIDIA's data center products
Which are essential for AI training
And this is translating into strong demand for NVIDIA's data center products
Which are essential for AI training
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11/ So it makes sense that investors get nervous when new models like DeepSeek suggest AI no longer requires larger models and more computing power
If true, this could threaten Nvidia's earnings
But we believe these fears are overblown
AI-related capital expenditures is still running at record highs
If true, this could threaten Nvidia's earnings
But we believe these fears are overblown
AI-related capital expenditures is still running at record highs
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12/ In fact, spending is ramping up further
In 2025, Amazon plans to spend $100 billion, Microsoft $80 billion, and Alphabet $75 billion
Almost all of it is likely to be focused on AI and cloud infrastructure
In 2025, Amazon plans to spend $100 billion, Microsoft $80 billion, and Alphabet $75 billion
Almost all of it is likely to be focused on AI and cloud infrastructure
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13/ And about 50 analysts project that AI infrastructure spending will keep growing through 2028
So if DeepSeek isn’t a real threat to capital expenditure, what about the export ban of Nvidia's chips to China?
So if DeepSeek isn’t a real threat to capital expenditure, what about the export ban of Nvidia's chips to China?
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14/ After all, China makes up 12% of Nvidia’s revenue
The new export rules could wipe out $15B in sales and add a $5.5B inventory charge
That’s not a small hit
But it’s not Nvidia’s first time dealing with such a situation
The new export rules could wipe out $15B in sales and add a $5.5B inventory charge
That’s not a small hit
But it’s not Nvidia’s first time dealing with such a situation
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15/ Back in Oct 2023, a similar ban hit Nvidia
The company responded by designing a scale down compliant chip for China
And that helped limit the damage
Today, they’re doing the same thing again
The company responded by designing a scale down compliant chip for China
And that helped limit the damage
Today, they’re doing the same thing again
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16/ Jensen Huang, Nvidia CEO, just confirmed a newly designed chip for China, set to ship in the upcoming quarter
In fact, Nvidia’s stock is also showing similar behavior to what it did back in 2023
The stock really just consolidated for months before rallying again on strong earnings
In fact, Nvidia’s stock is also showing similar behavior to what it did back in 2023
The stock really just consolidated for months before rallying again on strong earnings
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17/ On top of that, Nvidia just secured a billion-dollar deal to supply hundreds of thousands of chips to Humain, an AI startup owned by Saudi Arabia's Kingdom Investment Fund
That could completely offset the China impact
That could completely offset the China impact
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18/ With AI data center spending expected to hit $1 trillion by 2029, we’ve been bullish on semiconductors
We see this moment as similar to the early 2000s for software
And Nvidia is still positioned as a top player to take advantage of this structural trend
We see this moment as similar to the early 2000s for software
And Nvidia is still positioned as a top player to take advantage of this structural trend
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19/ So why is Michael Burry betting the other way?
Before jumping to conclusions, remember, 13F filings are delayed
They only show he held that short position as of March 31, 2025
We don’t know what he’s doing today
Before jumping to conclusions, remember, 13F filings are delayed
They only show he held that short position as of March 31, 2025
We don’t know what he’s doing today
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20/ Here’s where Nvidia traded on March 31 - right before Trump’s tariff announcement
That news did spark another 15% drop in the following week
It’s very possible Burry closed his short during that panic
That news did spark another 15% drop in the following week
It’s very possible Burry closed his short during that panic
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21/ In fact, he might’ve even bought the dip
We simply don’t know
13F filings lack the day-to-day detail needed to understand what Burry’s doing right now
We simply don’t know
13F filings lack the day-to-day detail needed to understand what Burry’s doing right now
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We’ve had an avg. win of 16.65% and an avg. loss of just 3.67% in the past year
We just sent out multiple new Trade Alerts to our members that you can access at:
bit.ly/BravosResearch
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23/ Thanks for reading!
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And follow @bravosresearch for more market insights, finance and investment strategies
Bravos Research@bravosresearch
Michael Burry just shorted this stock with 49% of his portfolio
This is a BIG move, buckle up.
A thread 🧵
This is a BIG move, buckle up.
A thread 🧵
