History is REPEATING Buckle up. A thread 🧵
Bravos Research@bravosresearch
106 views
Jul 09, 2025
~4 min read
Advertisement
1
History is REPEATING
Buckle up.
A thread 🧵
Buckle up.
A thread 🧵
2
2/ June 2009, June 2020, and June 2025 have each kicked off V-shaped recoveries for stocks
In all 3 cases, the S&P 500 surged more than 20% in just 55 trading days
Something that hasn’t occurred at any other point in the last 15 years
In all 3 cases, the S&P 500 surged more than 20% in just 55 trading days
Something that hasn’t occurred at any other point in the last 15 years
3
3/ In both 2009 and 2020, the rally didn’t stop there
The S&P 500 added another 20% in the following 80 days
So far, 2025 is shaping up to be another strong year for us
The S&P 500 added another 20% in the following 80 days
So far, 2025 is shaping up to be another strong year for us
4
4/ At Bravos Research, we’ve been riding this bull market with our members
Locking in multiple double-digit wins on tech trades
While keeping drawdowns minimal
Here’s our Q2 2025 track record
Find our entire track record at:
bit.ly/BravosResearch
Locking in multiple double-digit wins on tech trades
While keeping drawdowns minimal
Here’s our Q2 2025 track record
Find our entire track record at:
bit.ly/BravosResearch
5
5/ When we overlay the 2009 V-shaped recovery onto today’s market rally, the resemblance is uncanny
If 2025 continues to follow the script of 2009 or 2020, it could make the returns we've had year-to-date look like child's play
If 2025 continues to follow the script of 2009 or 2020, it could make the returns we've had year-to-date look like child's play
6
6/ These are the conditions where our trading strategy can provide incredible returns
Before we dive deeper into what could unfold next, I want to wish you all a Happy 4th of July
As always, we’re running a major sale to celebrate
Before we dive deeper into what could unfold next, I want to wish you all a Happy 4th of July
As always, we’re running a major sale to celebrate
7
7/ That means a 30% DISCOUNT (expiring today) to access all our trades and our week-by-week trading blueprint
If you’ve been thinking about joining, now’s the time
Because if this trend continues, the opportunity could be massive
bit.ly/BravosResearch
If you’ve been thinking about joining, now’s the time
Because if this trend continues, the opportunity could be massive
bit.ly/BravosResearch
8
8/ Let’s begin by revisiting the panic we saw during the April 2025 crash
The S&P 500 volatility index spiked above 40
This is the highest level since the market’s reaction to Trump’s tariff announcement
The S&P 500 volatility index spiked above 40
This is the highest level since the market’s reaction to Trump’s tariff announcement
9
9/ This level of volatility hadn’t been seen since 2020, and before that, 2009
In both of those, extreme fear preceded powerful V-shaped recoveries
In both of those, extreme fear preceded powerful V-shaped recoveries
10
10/ But while volatility reached similar levels in 2025, it didn’t spike as high as it did in 2009 or 2020
And there’s another key difference: Unlike those years, the US wasn’t in a recession in April 2025
And there’s another key difference: Unlike those years, the US wasn’t in a recession in April 2025
11
11/ Back in 2009 and 2020, unemployment shot above 10%
And the Fed responded with 0% interest rates and aggressive quantitative easing to jumpstart the economy
That policy backdrop played a major role in fueling those rallies
And the Fed responded with 0% interest rates and aggressive quantitative easing to jumpstart the economy
That policy backdrop played a major role in fueling those rallies
12
12/ In contrast, the 2025 unemployment rate is just 4.2% - low by historical standards
And although the Fed has eased a bit over the past year, rates remain elevated to prevent inflation from roaring back
And although the Fed has eased a bit over the past year, rates remain elevated to prevent inflation from roaring back
13
13/ On top of that, the Fed has been shrinking its balance sheet via quantitative tightening since 2022
So draining liquidity from the system instead of flooding it like in 2009 and 2020 his makes today’s macro environment much different
So draining liquidity from the system instead of flooding it like in 2009 and 2020 his makes today’s macro environment much different
14
14/ Still, different macro conditions don’t rule out similar results
In recent weeks, S&P 500 earnings have seen multiple sharp upward revisions
This comes after 15 consecutive weeks of downside earnings revisions fueled by tariff fears
In recent weeks, S&P 500 earnings have seen multiple sharp upward revisions
This comes after 15 consecutive weeks of downside earnings revisions fueled by tariff fears
15
15/ But overall it seems US corporations are actually coming out on the other side of these fears stronger
This is the largest streak in upwards S&P 500 earnings revisions since 2020 and 2021
Which helped drive exceptional stock market performance back then
This is the largest streak in upwards S&P 500 earnings revisions since 2020 and 2021
Which helped drive exceptional stock market performance back then
16
16/ The same was true in 2009
Earnings revisions surged after the financial crisis and fueled a V-shaped stock market recovery
The revisions we're seeing today are a strong foundation for continued gains into year-end
Earnings revisions surged after the financial crisis and fueled a V-shaped stock market recovery
The revisions we're seeing today are a strong foundation for continued gains into year-end
17
17/ But it’s unlikely we’ll see something as intense as 2020 or 2009
S&P 500 earnings are growing at about 10% annually
Which is healthy and supportive of good market returns
S&P 500 earnings are growing at about 10% annually
Which is healthy and supportive of good market returns
18
18/ But, in 2009 and 2020, earnings reached an annual growth rate of 30 to 40%
Back then, corporations were recovering from severe declines in their earnings during the recession
And were also benefiting from easy financial conditions by the Fed
Back then, corporations were recovering from severe declines in their earnings during the recession
And were also benefiting from easy financial conditions by the Fed
19
19/ So during those past recoveries, the market benefited from 3 to 4 times more earnings growth than we’re seeing today
That’s why, despite the similar rallies, the underlying environment today is clearly different and those cases aren’t ideal forward models
That’s why, despite the similar rallies, the underlying environment today is clearly different and those cases aren’t ideal forward models
20
20/ But there is one historical episode that does match, and that’s 1998
That year, the market also suffered a sharp drop followed by a fast recovery
With the S&P 500 gaining over 20% in just 55 trading days, just like today
That year, the market also suffered a sharp drop followed by a fast recovery
With the S&P 500 gaining over 20% in just 55 trading days, just like today
21
21/ In 1998, S&P 500 earnings were growing at 10% annually
Unemployment was low
The Fed held rates high
And the internet boom was just starting to accelerate, much like today’s AI boom
Macro and market conditions were remarkably similar
Unemployment was low
The Fed held rates high
And the internet boom was just starting to accelerate, much like today’s AI boom
Macro and market conditions were remarkably similar
22
22/ When we overlay the 1998 price action onto today’s rally, it's also quite an incredible match
23
23/ In the short term, we do expect a minor pullback over the next month
But if the S&P 500 continues to follow the 1998 trajectory, it could reach 7,000 by year-end
But if the S&P 500 continues to follow the 1998 trajectory, it could reach 7,000 by year-end
24
24/ We believe this is a real possibility
We’re positioning ourselves to ride the bull and to outperform the index with our clients
If you want in, don’t miss our 4th of July 30% DISCOUNT expiring today at:
bit.ly/BravosResearch
We’re positioning ourselves to ride the bull and to outperform the index with our clients
If you want in, don’t miss our 4th of July 30% DISCOUNT expiring today at:
bit.ly/BravosResearch
25
25/ Thanks for reading!
If you enjoyed this thread, please ❤️ and 🔁 the first tweet below
And follow @bravosresearch for more market insights, finance and investment strategies
If you enjoyed this thread, please ❤️ and 🔁 the first tweet below
And follow @bravosresearch for more market insights, finance and investment strategies
