Summary of Sams new blogpost > AGI within reach > economic growth...
Chubby♨️@kimmonismus
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Feb 17, 2025
~3 min read
1
Summary of Sams new blogpost
> AGI within reach
> economic growth right before us
> AGI will have great impact of capital and labor
> scientific is going through the roof
> the cost of intelligence is dropping by 10x / year and more
its coming.
"Systems that start to point to AGI* are coming into view, and so we think it’s important to understand the moment we are in.
AGI is a weakly defined term, but generally speaking we mean it to be a system that can tackle increasingly complex problems, at human level, in many fields."
"In some sense, AGI is just another tool in this ever-taller scaffolding of human progress we are building together. In another sense, it is the beginning of something for which it’s hard not to say “this time it’s different”; the economic growth in front of us looks astonishing, and we can now imagine a world where we cure all diseases, have much more time to enjoy with our families, and can fully realize our creative potential.
In a decade, perhaps everyone on earth will be capable of accomplishing more than the most impactful person can today.
It appears that you can spend arbitrary amounts of money and get continuous and predictable gains; the scaling laws that predict this are accurate over many orders of magnitude
The cost to use a given level of AI falls about 10x every 12 months, and lower prices lead to much more use
. We will find new things to do, new ways to be useful to each other, and new ways to compete, but they may not look very much like the jobs of today.
We expect the impact of AGI to be uneven. Although some industries will change very little, scientific progress will likely be much faster than it is today; this impact of AGI may surpass everything else.
The price of many goods will eventually fall dramatically (right now, the cost of intelligence and the cost of energy constrain a lot of things), and the price of luxury goods and a few inherently limited resources like land may rise even more dramatically.
In particular, it does seem like the balance of power between capital and labor could easily get messed up, and this may require early intervention. We are open to strange-sounding ideas like giving some “compute budget” to enable everyone on Earth to use a lot of AI, but we can also see a lot of ways where just relentlessly driving the cost of intelligence as low as possible has the desired effect.
Anyone in 2035 should be able to marshall the intellectual capacity equivalent to everyone in 2025; everyone should have access to unlimited genius to direct however they can imagine. There is a great deal of talent right now without the resources to fully express itself, and if we change that, the resulting creative output of the world will lead to tremendous benefits for us all.
x.com/sama/status/18…
> AGI within reach
> economic growth right before us
> AGI will have great impact of capital and labor
> scientific is going through the roof
> the cost of intelligence is dropping by 10x / year and more
its coming.
"Systems that start to point to AGI* are coming into view, and so we think it’s important to understand the moment we are in.
AGI is a weakly defined term, but generally speaking we mean it to be a system that can tackle increasingly complex problems, at human level, in many fields."
"In some sense, AGI is just another tool in this ever-taller scaffolding of human progress we are building together. In another sense, it is the beginning of something for which it’s hard not to say “this time it’s different”; the economic growth in front of us looks astonishing, and we can now imagine a world where we cure all diseases, have much more time to enjoy with our families, and can fully realize our creative potential.
In a decade, perhaps everyone on earth will be capable of accomplishing more than the most impactful person can today.
It appears that you can spend arbitrary amounts of money and get continuous and predictable gains; the scaling laws that predict this are accurate over many orders of magnitude
The cost to use a given level of AI falls about 10x every 12 months, and lower prices lead to much more use
. We will find new things to do, new ways to be useful to each other, and new ways to compete, but they may not look very much like the jobs of today.
We expect the impact of AGI to be uneven. Although some industries will change very little, scientific progress will likely be much faster than it is today; this impact of AGI may surpass everything else.
The price of many goods will eventually fall dramatically (right now, the cost of intelligence and the cost of energy constrain a lot of things), and the price of luxury goods and a few inherently limited resources like land may rise even more dramatically.
In particular, it does seem like the balance of power between capital and labor could easily get messed up, and this may require early intervention. We are open to strange-sounding ideas like giving some “compute budget” to enable everyone on Earth to use a lot of AI, but we can also see a lot of ways where just relentlessly driving the cost of intelligence as low as possible has the desired effect.
Anyone in 2035 should be able to marshall the intellectual capacity equivalent to everyone in 2025; everyone should have access to unlimited genius to direct however they can imagine. There is a great deal of talent right now without the resources to fully express itself, and if we change that, the resulting creative output of the world will lead to tremendous benefits for us all.
x.com/sama/status/18…
2
This is the important stuff
