EXPLAINER POST ON WHAT IS HAPPENING IN GERMANY RIGHT NOW, WHY IT IS...
eugyppius@eugyppius1
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Jan 28, 2025
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EXPLAINER POST ON WHAT IS HAPPENING IN GERMANY RIGHT NOW, WHY IT IS A HUGE DEAL, AND SO ON
If you want details and links, please see my substack pieces. Here I will write simply about what is happening.
1. German politics are stuck. They have been stuck in the same place for over a decade. This is largely because the populist opposition – Alternative für Deutschland – are excluded from power by the so-called cordon sanitaire. All the self-appointed 'democratic parties,' but especially the CDU, agree not to enter any coalitions and not to achieve anything, ever, with AfD votes.
2. Over time, the AfD has gained strength. They are now the second-strongest party in Germany, and by far the strongest in the east Germany. The cordon sanitaire, originally a tactic to keep voters from defecting from the CDU to the AfD ("if you vote for the bad guys you might as well throw your ballot in the trash"), has grown in significance. It now basically props up the entire traditional party system of Germany. All those old parties don't have to change, adopt new policies, or anything, because the cordon sanitaire keeps the AfD out. They get to do their little aquarium pantomime of democracy among themselves as if the AfD never existed.
3. Breaching the cordon sanitaire is the biggest tabu in German politics. In 2019, the state CDU in Thüringen elected a minister president from the FDP with AfD votes. That's all they did! They did not even elect an AfD minister president or anything crazy, they just achieved an outcome with AfD assistance. The CDU lost their minds. Merkel lost her mind. It was a weeks-long scandal. The FDP minister president was forced to resign. That's how serious the cordon sanitaire is.
4. The cordon sanitaire splits the right, empowers the left parties, and prevents the CDU from doing anything their voters actually want. Since the knife murders in Aschaffenburg, a huge majority of Germans – 66% – basically want a total stop to 'irregular' migration. Even among left voters, huge numbers want this.
5. The CDU has been promising up and down to do something about mass migration, but their promises lack credibility, because in the Bundestag right now there is already a simple majority in favour of anti-migration legislation. The CDU simply refused to use it, because that majority would require AfD votes, and that would violate the cordon sanitaire.
6. Aschaffenburg was the straw that broke the camel's back. The CDU have been stagnating in the polls for months. On Friday, Friedrich Merz – CDU chancellor candidate – said he would introduce anti-migration legislation to the Bundestag and bring it to a vote, regardless of who supported it. Just like that, and perhaps without even realising it, he had violated the tabu of the cordon sanitaire.
7. There was blowback, Merz reversed himself, then he reversed his reversal – realising that, once you have violated a tabu, it is pointless to reverse course. Today he agreed to bring an old piece of legislation to the Bundestag, for a vote on Friday. The CDU had proposed this law already in September, but two months later they tabled it, in fear that it would pass with AfD votes. Now they will bring it again and hope that it does pass with AfD votes.
8. If all goes well on Friday, AfD votes will be used to pass a new law. Should that happen it will be an historic event. The cordon sanitaire is not totally gone yet, but there is a relentless logic to what Merz has done that makes it hard to believe it can last much longer. It has become not a tabu, but a negotiable thing – something the CDU can disregard in the right circumstances, to overcome Green/SPD recalcitrance, and to give their voters what they demand.
9. Think of what Merz has done like a chain reaction. Each step in this reaction brings new, previously unthinkable possibilities within reach, and it may even make these new possibilities unavoidable. At the end of this chain, the cordon sanitaire might not be the only thing that is gone. It is conceivable that CDU ultimately take a huge hit, losing right-leaning voters to a newly legitimised AfD. This possibility has been feared within CDU ranks for a long time. As the AfD moves onto the political stage, the Green Party would be made largely irrelevant. The entire traditional party system of Germany might be upended. That's why this matters so much.
If you want details and links, please see my substack pieces. Here I will write simply about what is happening.
1. German politics are stuck. They have been stuck in the same place for over a decade. This is largely because the populist opposition – Alternative für Deutschland – are excluded from power by the so-called cordon sanitaire. All the self-appointed 'democratic parties,' but especially the CDU, agree not to enter any coalitions and not to achieve anything, ever, with AfD votes.
2. Over time, the AfD has gained strength. They are now the second-strongest party in Germany, and by far the strongest in the east Germany. The cordon sanitaire, originally a tactic to keep voters from defecting from the CDU to the AfD ("if you vote for the bad guys you might as well throw your ballot in the trash"), has grown in significance. It now basically props up the entire traditional party system of Germany. All those old parties don't have to change, adopt new policies, or anything, because the cordon sanitaire keeps the AfD out. They get to do their little aquarium pantomime of democracy among themselves as if the AfD never existed.
3. Breaching the cordon sanitaire is the biggest tabu in German politics. In 2019, the state CDU in Thüringen elected a minister president from the FDP with AfD votes. That's all they did! They did not even elect an AfD minister president or anything crazy, they just achieved an outcome with AfD assistance. The CDU lost their minds. Merkel lost her mind. It was a weeks-long scandal. The FDP minister president was forced to resign. That's how serious the cordon sanitaire is.
4. The cordon sanitaire splits the right, empowers the left parties, and prevents the CDU from doing anything their voters actually want. Since the knife murders in Aschaffenburg, a huge majority of Germans – 66% – basically want a total stop to 'irregular' migration. Even among left voters, huge numbers want this.
5. The CDU has been promising up and down to do something about mass migration, but their promises lack credibility, because in the Bundestag right now there is already a simple majority in favour of anti-migration legislation. The CDU simply refused to use it, because that majority would require AfD votes, and that would violate the cordon sanitaire.
6. Aschaffenburg was the straw that broke the camel's back. The CDU have been stagnating in the polls for months. On Friday, Friedrich Merz – CDU chancellor candidate – said he would introduce anti-migration legislation to the Bundestag and bring it to a vote, regardless of who supported it. Just like that, and perhaps without even realising it, he had violated the tabu of the cordon sanitaire.
7. There was blowback, Merz reversed himself, then he reversed his reversal – realising that, once you have violated a tabu, it is pointless to reverse course. Today he agreed to bring an old piece of legislation to the Bundestag, for a vote on Friday. The CDU had proposed this law already in September, but two months later they tabled it, in fear that it would pass with AfD votes. Now they will bring it again and hope that it does pass with AfD votes.
8. If all goes well on Friday, AfD votes will be used to pass a new law. Should that happen it will be an historic event. The cordon sanitaire is not totally gone yet, but there is a relentless logic to what Merz has done that makes it hard to believe it can last much longer. It has become not a tabu, but a negotiable thing – something the CDU can disregard in the right circumstances, to overcome Green/SPD recalcitrance, and to give their voters what they demand.
9. Think of what Merz has done like a chain reaction. Each step in this reaction brings new, previously unthinkable possibilities within reach, and it may even make these new possibilities unavoidable. At the end of this chain, the cordon sanitaire might not be the only thing that is gone. It is conceivable that CDU ultimately take a huge hit, losing right-leaning voters to a newly legitimised AfD. This possibility has been feared within CDU ranks for a long time. As the AfD moves onto the political stage, the Green Party would be made largely irrelevant. The entire traditional party system of Germany might be upended. That's why this matters so much.
