Waymo's market share is now equal to Lyft in SF. In just 15 months,...
Hosun Chung@hosun_chung
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Feb 01, 2025
~4 min read
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Waymo's market share is now equal to Lyft in SF.
In just 15 months, they've captured 22% of the rideshare market.
And they did it without a single human driver.
Here's how a Google side project became the future of transportation:
In just 15 months, they've captured 22% of the rideshare market.
And they did it without a single human driver.
Here's how a Google side project became the future of transportation:
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2009: Google launches a secretive self-driving car project.
Most thought it was another moonshot destined to fail.
After all, autonomous vehicles had been "5 years away" for decades.
But Google saw something others missed...
Most thought it was another moonshot destined to fail.
After all, autonomous vehicles had been "5 years away" for decades.
But Google saw something others missed...
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They realized the biggest challenge wasn't the technology.
It was trust.
People needed to believe that a computer could drive better than humans.
So they made a bold decision that would change everything:
It was trust.
People needed to believe that a computer could drive better than humans.
So they made a bold decision that would change everything:
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Instead of rushing to market like their competitors...
They spent years meticulously gathering data:
• 20+ billion miles in simulation
• 20+ million miles on public roads
• 40,000 unique test scenarios
But the real breakthrough came in their approach to safety:
They spent years meticulously gathering data:
• 20+ billion miles in simulation
• 20+ million miles on public roads
• 40,000 unique test scenarios
But the real breakthrough came in their approach to safety:
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Most autonomous vehicle companies focused on matching human performance.
Waymo aimed to surpass it.
The results?
• 84% fewer injury-causing crashes
• 57% fewer police-reported crashes
• 76% fewer property damage claims
Here's how they did it:
Waymo aimed to surpass it.
The results?
• 84% fewer injury-causing crashes
• 57% fewer police-reported crashes
• 76% fewer property damage claims
Here's how they did it:
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They built a sensor suite that makes human senses look primitive:
• LiDAR that sees 300 meters in complete darkness
• Cameras that spot details 500 meters away
• Radar that works in rain, fog, and snow
But the hardware was just the beginning...
• LiDAR that sees 300 meters in complete darkness
• Cameras that spot details 500 meters away
• Radar that works in rain, fog, and snow
But the hardware was just the beginning...
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The real magic? Their AI.
Waymo's system doesn't just see - it predicts.
It processes sensor data in real-time to anticipate the behavior of other road users.
Making thousands of decisions to ensure passenger safety.
Yet something else sealed their success:
Waymo's system doesn't just see - it predicts.
It processes sensor data in real-time to anticipate the behavior of other road users.
Making thousands of decisions to ensure passenger safety.
Yet something else sealed their success:
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Custom mapping.
Before launching in any city, Waymo creates insanely detailed 3D maps.
Every lane marker. Every curb. Every traffic signal.
This gives their AI an advantage human drivers never had:
Perfect knowledge of the road before the trip even starts.
Before launching in any city, Waymo creates insanely detailed 3D maps.
Every lane marker. Every curb. Every traffic signal.
This gives their AI an advantage human drivers never had:
Perfect knowledge of the road before the trip even starts.
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2016: Google spins off Waymo as its own company.
The goal? Commercialization.
But instead of selling cars to consumers (like Tesla), they made another unconventional choice:
Focus solely on ridesharing.
Here's why that decision was genius:
The goal? Commercialization.
But instead of selling cars to consumers (like Tesla), they made another unconventional choice:
Focus solely on ridesharing.
Here's why that decision was genius:
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Each Waymo vehicle costs $100,000 in equipment.
Too expensive for consumers.
But in ridesharing? The math changes completely:
One vehicle can generate revenue 24/7, with no driver to pay.
The economics suddenly made sense.
Too expensive for consumers.
But in ridesharing? The math changes completely:
One vehicle can generate revenue 24/7, with no driver to pay.
The economics suddenly made sense.
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2023: Waymo launches in San Francisco.
The results shocked everyone:
In just 15 months, they matched Lyft's market share.
10,000 trips per day.
No human drivers.
22% market share.
But here's what makes this truly revolutionary:
The results shocked everyone:
In just 15 months, they matched Lyft's market share.
10,000 trips per day.
No human drivers.
22% market share.
But here's what makes this truly revolutionary:
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Waymo's success triggered a fundamental shift:
Their cars aren't just safer - they're more reliable, consistent, and efficient than human drivers.
The implications?
Traditional rideshare companies now face an impossible choice:
Their cars aren't just safer - they're more reliable, consistent, and efficient than human drivers.
The implications?
Traditional rideshare companies now face an impossible choice:
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Either:
• Match Waymo's technology (billions in R&D)
• Or keep losing market share
This explains Uber's recent move:
They've partnered with Waymo to launch in Austin and Atlanta in 2025.
If you can't beat them, join them.
• Match Waymo's technology (billions in R&D)
• Or keep losing market share
This explains Uber's recent move:
They've partnered with Waymo to launch in Austin and Atlanta in 2025.
If you can't beat them, join them.
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But the biggest surprise?
Waymo just announced they're going global:
Testing in Tokyo in 2025.
Why Japan?
• Aging population
• Dense cities
• Tech-friendly culture
The future is clear:
Waymo just announced they're going global:
Testing in Tokyo in 2025.
Why Japan?
• Aging population
• Dense cities
• Tech-friendly culture
The future is clear:
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The autonomous vehicle revolution isn't just about technology.
It's about communication.
Waymo spent years building trust before launching their product.
We've been expecting self-driving cars for years.
This reveals something crucial about innovation:
It's about communication.
Waymo spent years building trust before launching their product.
We've been expecting self-driving cars for years.
This reveals something crucial about innovation:
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The best technology doesn't always win.
The most trusted one does.
This is why forward-thinking founders are focusing on something beyond their product...
The most trusted one does.
This is why forward-thinking founders are focusing on something beyond their product...
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When you're building something revolutionary:
How you communicate about your product becomes as important as your product itself.
You need to be your product's biggest proponent.
Today's best founders are all building in public. The benefits are endless:
How you communicate about your product becomes as important as your product itself.
You need to be your product's biggest proponent.
Today's best founders are all building in public. The benefits are endless:
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In today's world, people buy from people they trust.
Building in public:
• Makes any business goal 10x easier
• Brings your vision into the world
• Builds credibility at scale
Ready to evangelize?
Building in public:
• Makes any business goal 10x easier
• Brings your vision into the world
• Builds credibility at scale
Ready to evangelize?
0:44
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Thanks for reading! A bit about me:
In 2023, I was a banker in London when I found the opportunity of the decade: Personal Branding.
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In 2023, I was a banker in London when I found the opportunity of the decade: Personal Branding.
So, I dropped everything to build @ThoughtleadrX — a premium media agency designed to build personal and company brands.
Follow me for more content like this!
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Key requirements:
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• Location: Must be based in Europe, UK, or Canada
• Time zones: Must align with US Eastern working hours
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