🧵As I watch the Iranian attack on Israel, it is becoming clear that...
Andrew A. Michta@andrewmichta
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Apr 14, 2024
~1 min read
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🧵As I watch the Iranian attack on Israel, it is becoming clear that we are less and less able to deter our adversaries. Russia, Hamas, Houthis and now Iran. It’s time to ask ourselves why revisionist state and non-state actors believe they can attack and get away with it. 1/6
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Rhetoric not backed by action is just talk. Could it be that over the past three decades of “peace dividend” we forgot the basics of hard power? Could it be that each time our self-deterring approach when it comes to dealing with aggression only encourages our adversaries? 2/6
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We have wrongly assumed that our enemies are “rational actors,” in part because we understand less and less other cultures, and seem to be enamored with our own normative platitudes. But what we consider rational escalation management is seen as timidity by our adversaries 3/6
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The “speak softly and carry a big stick” approach to int’l relations has atrophied across the West. We have lived through three decades of the “triumph of the institutionalists,” who told us that properly crafted institutions can transform cultures, build democracies/nations.4/6
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When it comes to war, we forgot that no amount of strategic finesse can make up for numbers and mass, and most of all for strategic foresight and courage. So we’ve been shooting at arrows, not archers, signaling to the adversaries that we are unwilling or unable to persevere. 5/6
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If you ask yourself why deterrence is failing across multiple regional theaters, at least consider that it is not just about capabilities but about intent and sheer determination unequivocally communicated to our adversary—not through words but through hard power and action. 6/6
