It‘s not one country, it’s two parties.
Balaji@balajis
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Jan 10, 2025
~3 min read
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It‘s not one country, it’s two parties.
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This is a 70 year trend that you can pull right out of Congressional voting records and it’s only accelerated since 2011. vox.com/platform/amp/2…
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It’s visible at the individual level, in social network interactions as well. Here’s the polarization of 2017. cjr.org/analysis/breit…
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Americans no longer marry across tribal boundaries. 96% of Democrats are not married to Republicans.
ifstudies.org/blog/marriages…
ifstudies.org/blog/marriages…
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Americans increasingly don’t hire across tribal boundaries either. For example, in this study >91% of faculty were Democrats, and 808 departments did not employ a single Republican. nas.org/academic-quest…
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As a consequence, blues and reds have partitioned at the level of both network and state.
Blues have built one party Democrat states in Washington and California. Reds are now doing the reverse in places like Texas and Florida.
The sociopolitical divergence is accelerating.
Blues have built one party Democrat states in Washington and California. Reds are now doing the reverse in places like Texas and Florida.
The sociopolitical divergence is accelerating.
Balaji@balajis
Make America States Again?
Noah asks what comes next.
I think it matches his observation.
Blue and red states are diverging.
From each other and DC.
Sanctuary cities vs e-verify.
Gun laws, drug laws, abortion laws.
As different as different countries.
And so they may be.
Noah asks what comes next.
I think it matches his observation.
Blue and red states are diverging.
From each other and DC.
Sanctuary cities vs e-verify.
Gun laws, drug laws, abortion laws.
As different as different countries.
And so they may be.
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Both sides have made attempts to put the country back together on their terms.
Wokism is the Democrat attempt to make Republicans knuckle under by accusing them of being insufficiently anti-racist.
Nationalism is the Republican attempt to make Democrats knuckle under by accusing them of being insufficiently anti-China.
Both of them are based on fundamentally false premises. To even point out those falsehoods means challenging Democrat PC, Republican PC, or both.
But fundamentally, both tribes are trying to psychologically reunify the country under one banner — and the empirical reality is that they are not doing so successfully.
Blue can’t fully flip red now that red has its own states and social networks. Red can’t fully flip blue now that blue controls the federal government and social institutions.
So if neither wokism or nationalism will reunify the country, if the social war is at present an ugly draw, what comes next?
Tribalism.
Wokism is the Democrat attempt to make Republicans knuckle under by accusing them of being insufficiently anti-racist.
Nationalism is the Republican attempt to make Democrats knuckle under by accusing them of being insufficiently anti-China.
Both of them are based on fundamentally false premises. To even point out those falsehoods means challenging Democrat PC, Republican PC, or both.
But fundamentally, both tribes are trying to psychologically reunify the country under one banner — and the empirical reality is that they are not doing so successfully.
Blue can’t fully flip red now that red has its own states and social networks. Red can’t fully flip blue now that blue controls the federal government and social institutions.
So if neither wokism or nationalism will reunify the country, if the social war is at present an ugly draw, what comes next?
Tribalism.
Balaji@balajis
The social war
In 1861, the sides were physically and ideologically separated. So blue's victory condition was simple: invade gray.
By 2016, the blue and red were overlapping in physical space, but disjoint in digital space. So victory meant invading the other side's mind.
In 1861, the sides were physically and ideologically separated. So blue's victory condition was simple: invade gray.
By 2016, the blue and red were overlapping in physical space, but disjoint in digital space. So victory meant invading the other side's mind.
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NETWORK > STATE
Think about the Discord leaks. A 21 year old serviceman was more loyal to his online social network than to the legacy state.[1]
Expect to see much more of that.
That’s the reality of the present day. People will show loyalty to others they know, to their digital network, not to an abstract and hostile state. In a sense it’s just a return to the decentralized 1800s before the federal government was anywhere near as strong. It’s digital localism, in a sense. Though the transition will be messy.
[1]: theintercept.com/2023/04/19/int…
Think about the Discord leaks. A 21 year old serviceman was more loyal to his online social network than to the legacy state.[1]
Expect to see much more of that.
That’s the reality of the present day. People will show loyalty to others they know, to their digital network, not to an abstract and hostile state. In a sense it’s just a return to the decentralized 1800s before the federal government was anywhere near as strong. It’s digital localism, in a sense. Though the transition will be messy.
[1]: theintercept.com/2023/04/19/int…
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WOKISM → NATIONALISM → TRIBALISM
There’s more I can say, but the main point is: it’s not just wokism that’s fake. It’s also US nationalism in the current year. The political divisions go too deep, and anti-China is just not a sufficient basis for being pro-America.
You have to get along with other people in your country to have a country. If you don’t, it’s not a nation, it’s a tribal warzone. And without a nation, without a single high trust social network that everyone belongs to — you can’t have large-scale “nationalism”, only tribalism.
Which may be fine! Do things that don’t scale, as the saying goes…
I leave you with this, where someone with very different premises comes to a similar conclusion.
theatlantic.com/politics/archi…
There’s more I can say, but the main point is: it’s not just wokism that’s fake. It’s also US nationalism in the current year. The political divisions go too deep, and anti-China is just not a sufficient basis for being pro-America.
You have to get along with other people in your country to have a country. If you don’t, it’s not a nation, it’s a tribal warzone. And without a nation, without a single high trust social network that everyone belongs to — you can’t have large-scale “nationalism”, only tribalism.
Which may be fine! Do things that don’t scale, as the saying goes…
I leave you with this, where someone with very different premises comes to a similar conclusion.
theatlantic.com/politics/archi…
