The long-simmering global contest for power & influence has just...
Simon Mikhailovich@S_Mikhailovich
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Jan 08, 2026
~2 min read
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1
The long-simmering global contest for power & influence has just erupted into a full blown war.
Here are some observations (not projections) of the early casualties 🧵
Here are some observations (not projections) of the early casualties 🧵
2
RIP world peace:
Ukrainian war is not about Ukraine; it is a full blown Russian-American war.
Whether it stays hot or cools off, the rupture we are observing in real time is irreparable.
New battle lines have been drawn for decades to come.
Ukrainian war is not about Ukraine; it is a full blown Russian-American war.
Whether it stays hot or cools off, the rupture we are observing in real time is irreparable.
New battle lines have been drawn for decades to come.
3
RIP nuclear security:
All sides understand the risk of mutually assured destruction and, hopefully, will never use the nukes.
Unfortunately, history is filled with devastating wars that got started due to mistakes, miscalculations & misunderstandings.
All sides understand the risk of mutually assured destruction and, hopefully, will never use the nukes.
Unfortunately, history is filled with devastating wars that got started due to mistakes, miscalculations & misunderstandings.
4
RIP globalization:
Radical de-globalization of supply chains & international relations has started.
Geopolitical implications are historic & financial costs are already incalculable.
Radical de-globalization of supply chains & international relations has started.
Geopolitical implications are historic & financial costs are already incalculable.
5
RIP global internet:
W/numerous online services voluntarily de-platforming Russians &/or being banned by Russia, we are watching cardinal disruption of global connectivity, free information flow & global digital commerce.
W/numerous online services voluntarily de-platforming Russians &/or being banned by Russia, we are watching cardinal disruption of global connectivity, free information flow & global digital commerce.
6
RIP the rule of law:
Canada's freeze of fin accts/wallets & confiscation of Russian gov & private assets undermined the foundation of Western law & finance - pres. of innocence, due process, basic property rights, etc.
We took a wrecking ball to the trust in our system.
Canada's freeze of fin accts/wallets & confiscation of Russian gov & private assets undermined the foundation of Western law & finance - pres. of innocence, due process, basic property rights, etc.
We took a wrecking ball to the trust in our system.
7
RIP international intellectual property rights:
How does an information/high tech-based economy prosper w/out ability to enforce international laws on software licencing, patent protection & other intellectual property rights?
How does an information/high tech-based economy prosper w/out ability to enforce international laws on software licencing, patent protection & other intellectual property rights?
8
RIP food & energy security:
It will take years to reorganize the world into self-sufficient regions w/secure energy & food supplies.
In the meantime, expect much higher costs & unreliable supply for a whole lot of stuff we used to take for granted.
It will take years to reorganize the world into self-sufficient regions w/secure energy & food supplies.
In the meantime, expect much higher costs & unreliable supply for a whole lot of stuff we used to take for granted.
9
Each of these "ruptures" will have 2nd & 3rd order effects whose extent & financial impact are as yet unknown.
And what will China & others do about all this? Count on it, they will do something & it won't be cost-free.
We had a really good thing goin'... What a pity...
And what will China & others do about all this? Count on it, they will do something & it won't be cost-free.
We had a really good thing goin'... What a pity...
