Epoch AI (@EpochAIResearch)

We’ve added ECI scores for Gemini 3 Pro, Opus 4.5, and GPT-5.2. ECI is computed from many benchmarks, but it correlates with other benchmarks too. So, we can use it to make predictions! Here’s what we get for METR’s Time Horizons. Gemini 3 Pro: 4.9h GPT-5.2: 3.5h Opus 4.5: 2.6h ...

We’ve identified an Alibaba data center in Zhangbei, China with an estimated 200–500 MW capacity. Roughly half of that predates the AI boom and likely hosts little modern compute. But several newer buildings show a high power density consistent with advanced AI chips. 🧵 ...

In May, OpenAI announced a 1 GW Stargate cluster in Abu Dhabi, with an initial 200 MW expected in 2026. We located this cluster from space and found it will barely make that 200 MW milestone, by end of 2026. Optimistically, the cluster can scale to 1 GW by Q3 2027. See how in 🧵 ...

How big of a paradigm shift was the rise of reasoning models? We dug into the data and found that at least on some benchmarks, reasoning models were likely as large of an algorithmic advance as the Transformer. ...

We have graded the results of @OpenAI's evaluation on FrontierMath Tier 1–3 questions, and found a 27% (± 3%) performance. ChatGPT agent is a new model fine-tuned for agentic tasks, equipped with text/GUI browser tools and native terminal access. 🧵 ...

How do reasoning models solve hard math problems? We asked 14 mathematicians to review o3-mini-high’s raw, unsummarized reasoning traces on 29 FrontierMath problems. Here’s what they found: ...