David (@david_eng_mba)

$80K $BTC. $130K trend. $790K 10-year p10 floor. The Bitcoin Compounding Triangle answers the 3 questions every holder asks: 1. Is now a good entry? Spot: $80,853 Power-law trend: ~$130K PL z-score: -0.73 365d Reward/Pain: 2.36x Translation: Bitcoin is below structural trend. Historically, thi...

Why Bitcoin Explodes at Settlement and Not Adoption (Paper vs Spot) Given this structure, a 5 to 10X Bitcoin settlement squeeze is not just possible, it’s the likely outcome. Most people think Bitcoin rallies on adoption. That’s wrong. Bitcoin reprices when claims are forced to settle. Paper vs...

Wall Street is pricing the apps. The money is in the constraints. Most investors are making a category error. They are chasing the application of intelligence. That is a trap. Software commoditizes to zero. Friction compounds. Here is the First Principles thesis: Invest in the bottlenecks. 1. The...