Brad Setser (@Brad_Setser)

You can sort of see why folks talk about a China shock - Very clear swing in Europe's trade balance in autos, engines and batteries with China The first inflection point isn't the pandemic but rather the summer of 21, the second is in 2024 ... 1/ ...

There is a lot of talk -- not the least from the US Administration -- about the windfall from Venezuela's oil. It is worth doing a bit of (boring) quantification. Bottom line: it isn't going to pay for everything ... 1/ ...

The latest IMF analysis of China (The staff report/ Article IV) highlights that China's export driven growth has come at the expense of its trading partners. That is welcome, and very necessary message 1/many ...

China's premier says China wants to be a market for the world, not just a source of supply. He might want to get get started. China exported over 7m passenger cars in 2025, and the pace of growth accelerated at the end of the year 1/ many ...

Japan should announce a plan where it uses the interest income on the MoF's considerable holdings of US assets (in their reserve portfolio) to buyback the long end of the Japanese curve. 1/ <a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/johnarnold/status/2013729494528307522" color="blue">x.com/johnar...

"Traders estimated that Secretary Scott Bessent’s Treasury sold more than US$200 million (of dollars) during the trading session Friday, with roughly half coming in the final 10 minutes" Total US purchases of pesos last week must be above $300m, perhaps approaching $500m? 1/...

Large economies do not generally rely heavily on foreign demand, tis true. That is what makes China recent heavy reliance on foreign demand significant -- the soaring goods surplus and the unusually large contribution from net exports highlight how China is still relying on exports to offset domest...

Chinese investment has stalled out in the third quarter. Real estate investment continues to fall, and infrastructure and manufacturing investment have stopped growing .... with one notable exception: autos 1/ ...

European exports to China continue their slow march down -- trend is super clear. European exports to the US are still rising, but obviously inflated by American pharmaceutical companies producing in Europe to avoid US tax 1/ ...