Brad Setser (@Brad_Setser)

It isn't exactly a secret that I view the US pharmaceutical trade deficit as a bit of a Rorschach test -- it tests whether folks form their opinion on trade issues by listening to interest groups, the President (now) or by looking at the actual trade data 1/ ...

A useful fact for all participants in the current debate about the dollar and Trump and the global economy -- US exports of manufactures and agricultural goods (using the SITC data) are back at their levels (v GDP) of the early 1980s -- before much "globalization" 1/ ...

To state the obvious, a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada and a 10% tariff on China, if sustained, would be a massive shock -- a much bigger move in one weekend than all the trade action that Trump took in his first term 1/x ...

So much for reports by April 1, and a deliberative process -- President Trump is a true believer "“The tariffs are going to make us very rich and very strong" -- 1/ ...

Appreciate the quick response to my paper with Sander Tordoir from @lugaricano -- there does seem to be a real consensus that Germany is now facing a China shock, even if there is still a healthy debate on the right response. A few reactions: (1/many) <a target="_blank" href="https://www.siliconc...

Just a reminder: there isn't a single definition of the yen carry trade. It was many things -- foreign speculators borrowing yen, but also Japanese investments underhedging the foreign assets they hold v yen liabilities. 1/ <a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/jameslavish/status/1831140417...