@Research_FRI

Thread

Is it possible to spot a good forecast by its rationale? We used LLMs to score the reasoning behind 55,000+ forecasts and test the link between forecast accuracy and written rationales. We found that: • Causal reasoning is much more prevalent than statistical argumentation • It's easier to identi...

@samueljmcd

Article

<i>Loop engineering is the new label. The hard part is the one it has always been. Verification.</i>...

@putrategar2709

Thread

List statistik yang seharusnya alias yang diharapkan ada di bulu tangkis: - rata-rata kecepatan smash tiap pemain - persentase poin terbanyak dal satu game (misal netting 20 persen, smash 10 persen, drive 10 persen, dropshot 10 persen unforced error lawan 50 persen) - rata-rata pukulan dalam satu...

@eng_khairallah1

Article

You read maybe two hundred articles this year. A few dozen papers. Hundreds of threads....

@pmarca

Article

By @mikemcg0 and myself...

@AndrewCurran_

Article

If you used Fable while it was available, you know it is special in ways that will not show up on benchmarks. I post benchmarks all the time because they matter to many people, but for a long time they have not mattered to me at all. I only care about a benchmark that is not measured in numbers. It ...

@mattepstein

Article

Have you seen any of the launches below on your timeline? (you probably have).....

@ericosiu

Article

The best engineers in the world have stopped prompting AI and started building loops....