Have immersed myself in Iranian official media as well as X,...
Sohrab Ahmari 🇺🇸@SohrabAhmari
44 views
Sep 08, 2026
~3 min read
Advertisement
1
Have immersed myself in Iranian official media as well as X, TikTok, Instagram, etc. Broad observations:
1) The religious feel they've lost control of the veil issue. And yes, in upscale urban cores, you see clothes so tight and revealing, you can't believe this is Islamic Iran.
1) The religious feel they've lost control of the veil issue. And yes, in upscale urban cores, you see clothes so tight and revealing, you can't believe this is Islamic Iran.
2
2) Meanwhile, the system and the public are hotly debating the next step in the war. Rouhani has emerged as a strong voice for the diplomatic path, and as a lightning rod for the segments of the population and the officialdom that yearn for more confrontation and "resistance."
3
3) The resistance camp truly transcends divides over personal freedom, women's dress and makeup, etc. There are probably elements of both on both sides: There are women with lip filler, yoga pants, and acrylic claws who insist upon "revenge."
4
4) The reform-pragmatic camp led by Rouhani claims the state broadcaster has shut them out. The state-TV pundits are punching back hard, in part by claiming that in Rouhani's time, it was they who were shut out.
5
5) The real debates aren't between reformists and hard-liners (outmoded categories). It's between different flavors of IRGC hawks.
6
5, cont'd) Between those who see diplomacy and kinetic action as two sides of the same pursuit; and those who think there's no point in talking until Tehran dramatically raises the price of aggression for Washington.
7
6) More generally, even as individual freedoms are opening up --- I mean, they host outdoor raves where the men are shirtless and the women twerk in tight dresses --- the political atmosphere is tight and tightening. It's IRGC-stan (with outdoor raves).
8
7) The inflation situation is awful for the class of people who can't afford botox and raves, which is to say, for most. So many of the videos are about how to stretch grocery budgets, or just showing how little the Iranian rial buys.
9
8) The system is aware of this. Another key debate, mirroring the one in America, is how long each side can last: How long can Trump tolerate plunging approval rates and Democratic gains: How long can Iran withstand economic pressure without internal revolt?
10
9) Pahlavism is eroding. Videos are proliferating of the movement's lower-middle-class base abroad bickering among each other over God-knows-what, some former supporters openly questioning Reza Pahlavi's commitment and seriousness, etc., and some recanting.
11
10) You see clearly that the core of Pahlavism are recent migrants to the West who are struggling to make it. These are not like earlier generations in the diaspora: the stereotypical Iranian plastic surgeon or BMW dealer. They're scraping by as cabbies, day laborers, maids, etc.
12
10 cont'd) I'm not saying that's the whole of the movement, but it's a core base. They have no way back to Iran --- because the Islamic Republic is unforgiving --- but they're also struggling here. Some of the activists beg their followers for donations.
13
10 cont'd) This aspect of the story truly broke my heart. What has Iran done to its middle class? Yes, sanctions are part of the story. But corruption, mismanagement, and repression --- combined with Western aspiration --- have created a bloc of desperate, damaged people.
14
11) I've watched maybe 10,000 videos of Pahlavi-supporting young men and women --- neck tattoos de rigueur --- screaming into phone cameras. Just primal screams: JAKESH KHAR-KOSDEH KHAR MADARETO MIGAM PEDAR SAG KESAFAT KIRAM TU RUHET. [Persian obscentities]
15
11 cont'd) After a while, it isn't even clear whom they're targeting. Often, it's not the regime itself, but some other segment of the Pahlavi opposition that has accused our protagonist of secretly being on the regime's payroll (or whatever).
16
12) My 48 hours of scrolling Iranian social media was, above all, depressing.
17
PS --- My other general observation: Iranians, even the most strident secularists, are deeply, deeply religious. And have a profound, all-powerful sense of purity versus contamination. There's a reason why Mani, the founder of Manichaeism, emerged in baptist context in Iran.
