why do some teams win and some lose? today, I will explain the...

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why do some teams win and some lose?

today, I will explain the secret behind how the best pros predict & organize their football teams.

this is also how I helped a team gain over 500% ROI on transfer fees in one season!

a master’s thread 🧵/

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There are two main components to a team:

—Balance
&
—Mavericks

“Balance” is the level of your tactical organization, physicality, squad depth, and whether you have the right players in the right spots.

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Balance can be thought of as your team’s floor: the lowest level of performance you can expect from them.

Balance affects teams in different ways, depending on things like injuries or the type of the game.

Arsenal are the highest balance team among the elite; Barca the lowest.

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“Mavericks” are players with unstoppable game-swinging qualities. These players determine the ceiling of the potential outcomes of your team.

The qualities to determine whether a player is a maverick are different from position to position.

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For attackers, there are three main qualities they can possess. 2/3 would qualify you to be a maverick.

—Speed
—Creativity
—Box Impact

Speed is the pace on/off the ball to exploit large spaces.

Creativity is the ability to unlock situations.

Box Impact is direct G/A capacity.

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Both Speed and Creativity are innate.

You either have them naturally or not.

Box Impact can be developed & refined if you have:

—Persistent movement
—Good shooting mechanics
—Ability to manufacture space on the ball
—Setpieces
—Stamina

The more traits, the more you can score.

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Do you now realize why Real Madrid paid so much for 16-year-old Vinicius Junior?

He had Speed and Creativity right from birth!

Very few players in world history have this profile!

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Bradley Barcola has speed, but little creativity and underdeveloped box impact.

However, he has persistent movement to repeatedly get into good positions.

1/3 with modest potential to develop one more.

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Jeremy Doku does not have Speed or Box Impact, but he has Creativity.

It doesn’t often show up in his tally but everyone knows he unlocks situations for Manchester City. 

In terms of Box Impact, he has some ability to manufacture space on the ball but not much else.

1/3

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It should be mentioned that these traits all work together and help one another.

If you have good speed + movement, you will get into more positions than someone with just good movement.

And if you have good shooting mechanics, you can convert more of those opportunities.

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Also these qualities are subdivided into traits.

Speed: On the ball (Prime Messi)/Off the ball (Mane)

Creativity: 1v1s, Pausa, Creative Passing, Deliveries, Release Efficiency, Balance & Angles, Quick Feet, etc

Box Impact: Already discussed.

Players can have more or less.

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Mohammed Salah is an example of a Full Maverick who was above average at 3/3 qualities.

Box Impact: had everything.
Speed: both on/off the ball.
Creativity: Pausa, Balance & Angles, Release Efficiency, Deliveries

A genuine unicorn of a player.

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Vinicius Junior is another example of a Full Maverick who has Speed, Creativity and Box Impact.

So is Ousmane Dembele.

2/3 is enough to be qualified as a Maverick.

Saka, Mahrez, Palmer, Sterling, are examples of some 2/3 mavericks.

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Box Impact is qualified differently for strikers.

In fact, you can replace it with Box Dominance.

Haaland has Speed & Box Dominance.

Kane has Creativity & Box Dominance.

Both are special mavericks.

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For midfielders, the category changes somewhat.

Defending
Distribution
Box Impact

Remember — it takes 2/3 to be a maverick.

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Defending: Spatial awareness, intelligence, legs for defensive transition, static duels, 1v1s, etc

Distribution: Pausa, creative passing, global range, release efficiency, shielding, ball-carrying, balance & angles.

A player can be

Subpar
Somewhat
Decent
Good
Great

at these.

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Let’s rank some players!

Jude Bellingham: good Defending, decent Distribution, great Box Impact. 3/3

Declan Rice: great Defending, good Distribution, great Box Impact. 3/3.

Pedri Gonzalez: subpar defending, best distribution, somewhat Box Impact. 1/3.

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Elliot Anderson: decent Defending, good distribution, good Box Impact. 2/3

Joao Neves: decent Defending, good distribution, good Box Impact. 2/3

Bruno Guimaraes: decent Defending, great distribution, good Box Impact. 2/3

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Rodrigo Hernandez: good Defending, great distribution, good Box Impact. 3/3

Enzo Fernandez: subpar Defending, good distribution, great Box Impact. 2/3

Moises Caicedo: good Defending, good Distribution, somewhat Box Impact. 2/3.

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What about defenders?

1. Defending:

—Lockdown 1v1 defender
—High recovery/speed
—Massive build to pressure and in aerials

Examples: Antonio Rudiger, William Saliba, VVD

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2. Ball Progression

—Role versatility
—Ball carrying
—Global range

Classic example is Trent Alexander Arnold or Oleksander Zinchenko

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3. Box Impact

—Deliveries
—Persistent movement
—Good shooting mechanics
—Setpieces
—Ability to manufacture space on the ball

Classic examples are Achraf Hakimi and Trent Alexander Arnold.

Trent is a 2/3 maverick.

Hakimi is a 2/3 maverick.

Nuno Mendes is a 2/3 maverick.

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All that said, you can now rank teams by their

—Balance
&
—Mavericks

Let’s take a look at some of the greatest modern teams from this perspective.

Klopp’s Liverpool (18-22)

Balance: Very high.
Mavericks: Allison, Van Dijk, Trent, Salah (4).

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Pep’s City (18-23)

Balance: Very high.
Mavericks: Rodri, Gundogan, KDB, Mahrez, Sterling/Haaland (4).

Zidane’s Madrid (16-18)

Balance: High
Mavericks: Kroos, Modric, Ronaldo, Benzema, Bale (5)

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Pep’s Barca (9-12)

Balance: Very High
Mavericks: Pique, Alves, Toure, Xavi, Iniesta, Busquets, Messi, Cesc, Eto/Ibrahimovic, Henry, Alexis (11)

The highest concentration of mavericks in football history at a peak of 9.

Never before seen & Never to be seen again.

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Now, let’s take a look at modern teams!

Enrique’s PSG:

Balance: Very high
Mavericks: Nuno Mendes, Achraf Hakimi, Joao Neves, Dembele (4)

Arteta’s Arsenal

Balance: Very High
Mavericks: Saliba, Rice, Bruno Guimaraes, Saka (4)

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Mourinho’s Madrid:

Balance: Good
Mavericks: Trent, Jude, Vinicius, Mbappé, Courtois (5)

Kompany’s Bayern:

Balance: Very high
Mavericks: Kimmich, Kane, Olise (3)

Maresca’s Manchester:

Balance: High
Mavericks: Gvardiol, Enzo, Anderson, Haaland (4)

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Other things come into play such as injuries, suspensions and absences that can swing games but this simple heuristic can help you predict the outcomes of teams.

I used this methodology to recruit for an American MCO and within one year, we saw a 500% ROI!

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The methodology is all completely documented and now available for head of departments, directors, owners and ownership group to take advantage of.

Complete clarity in squad planning & building that allows you to out-maneuver the market!

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Thank you all for reading my thread 🧵 🙏🏽

Inquiries inbox are welcome. There’s so much more detail left to share.

why do some teams win and some lose? today, I will explain the...

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