Speaker: Sanjay Kumar Elangovan @sanjaylangval, ithought PMS...
Arthon Advisors@ArthonAdvisors
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Aug 09, 2026
~3 min read
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Speaker: Sanjay Kumar Elangovan @sanjaylangval, ithought PMS
Company: Shilpa Medicare
#IAS2026 @ias_summit
Company: Shilpa Medicare
#IAS2026 @ias_summit
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Shilpa Medicare quietly rebuilt itself: from an oncology API maker into a 6-vertical platform - API, formulations, peptides, polymers, biologics, ADCs. India's first commercial ADC + solid-phase peptide setup. Revenue doubled in a "lost decade" - but the stock went nowhere.
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Why: founder Vishnukant Bhutada kept doing CapEx ahead of the curve. A 2017 profile called him a "master innovator" - right as the stock topped out. Post-2010, everything he built sat on the balance sheet, invisible in the P&L. That's now starting to change.
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The scale of the bet: an estimated 2,000cr of CapEx across 4 new divisions over 10 years (speaker's own estimate, not disclosed by mgmt). Net block is up 8-10x. Even at just 1x asset turn, that's 2,000cr of incremental revenue at 30-50% margins - vs ~450-500cr EBITDA today.
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It wasn't smooth: a JV exit, a US FDA import alert (approval expected FY27), and balance-sheet stress bad enough that one fund dumped shares in 2022-23 fearing bankruptcy. Since then, debt is down from a peak of ~1,000cr to ~600cr.
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2017's Navya Biologicals acquisition was the key unlock - fermentation + recombinant biologics tech. Cipla, Alkem and Strides all tried to buy Navya first; Shilpa got there. It fast-tracked their entire biologics push.
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Six verticals: Onco-API (20-30% share in 5 products), peptides (India's largest solid-phase capacity, already selling desmopressin, working on semaglutide), polymers (targeting 100cr), and formulations licensed out B2B (150cr income today, could double in 2-3 years).
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Biosimilars: adalimumab already selling, aflibercept approval expected FY27, 4 more biosimilars + 1 ADC in the pipeline via the Navya platform.
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CDMO is the "most underappreciated" piece: 25 active projects across 20 clients, 3 late-stage (1 already commercial, driving 15% API growth last quarter). Another's FDA approval expected FY27 could make FY28 a breakout year.
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The biggest driver: Albumin, $8-10 Bn market today entirely derived from human blood plasma, facing a global shortage. Its building a recombinant - has already outlicensed EU rights to Finland's Orion for 450cr
At Peak utilization, it could do 1200cr Rev at 45% ~ 500cr EBITDA
At Peak utilization, it could do 1200cr Rev at 45% ~ 500cr EBITDA
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That single EU deal alone roughly recovers the ~500cr CapEx spent on the albumin plant - before any US or rest-of-world deal. Capacity is 220KL, bigger than Biocon's Malaysia site or Hetero's India site - among the largest in the world.
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Add it up: today's base business does ~1,600-1,700cr revenue at ~28% EBITDA margin. These newer products alone could triple or quadruple revenue, mostly at 30-50% margins - and management says the heavy investment phase is largely behind them now.
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Risks: valuation is already rich (~50x), FY27 may not clear expectations, and albumin execution is the biggest swing factor - if that story breaks, the speaker says it's a sell. Add partner-dependent licensing, long regulatory timelines and lumpy CDMO revenue.
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Valuation case: speaker expects 20-25% earnings CAGR and a return to 20-25% ROE. Weaker-quality peers trade at 40-50x PAT, CDMO peers at 50-80x. Shilpa's market cap today is ~14,000cr - a re-rating on these numbers over 4-7 years could be large.
Definitely a business to study!
Definitely a business to study!
