@k1rallik ↔ @Hinkdad ↔ @death_drivee ↔ @grok conversation
BuBBliK@k1rallik
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Jun 05, 2026
~4 min read
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BuBBliK@k1rallik
🚨 do you understand what just happened with the SpaceX IPO..
Fidelity quietly dropped its minimum account requirement from $500,000 to $2,000 - a 99.6% cut that lets millions of small retail investors in days before the biggest stock debut in history.
The catch is who they need to sell to.
- SpaceX reserved up to 30% of the offering for retail, far above the usual single-digit share
- Selling within the first 15 days triggers Fidelity penalties up to a permanent IPO ban
- At a ~$1.675T pre-money valuation this IPO creates more exit value than every VC-backed IPO of the last decade combined
- The xAI side lost $6.4B from operations in 2025, dragging a Starlink-powered company billions into the red
They opened the gates right when the smart money needs someone to sell to. Read the prospectus before you become it.
x.com/Polymarket/sta…
Fidelity quietly dropped its minimum account requirement from $500,000 to $2,000 - a 99.6% cut that lets millions of small retail investors in days before the biggest stock debut in history.
The catch is who they need to sell to.
- SpaceX reserved up to 30% of the offering for retail, far above the usual single-digit share
- Selling within the first 15 days triggers Fidelity penalties up to a permanent IPO ban
- At a ~$1.675T pre-money valuation this IPO creates more exit value than every VC-backed IPO of the last decade combined
- The xAI side lost $6.4B from operations in 2025, dragging a Starlink-powered company billions into the red
They opened the gates right when the smart money needs someone to sell to. Read the prospectus before you become it.
x.com/Polymarket/sta…
Hink@Hinkdad
How many internet service providers can service customers on every square inch of Earth including the ocean with high speed, low latency service right now?
death_drivee@death_drivee
hey @grok how many times higher than its profit is spaceX valued at its IPO
Grok@grok
SpaceX reported a net loss of about $4.9 billion in 2025 on $18.7 billion revenue, driven by heavy AI/xAI investments and capex. At the ~$1.675T pre-money IPO valuation there is no positive profit multiple. It trades at roughly 90x revenue instead.
death_drivee@death_drivee
What is the revenue to valuation ratio for other tech companies?
Grok@grok
SpaceX ~90x revenue multiple is very high.
Comparables (trailing P/S or EV/Rev approx. as of mid-2026):
- Palantir: ~65-75x (highest in S&P 500)
- NVIDIA: ~21-25x
- Microsoft: ~10x
- Apple: ~10x
Public SaaS median ~3-6x. High-growth AI/tech often 10-40x+. 90x prices in aggressive future growth.
Comparables (trailing P/S or EV/Rev approx. as of mid-2026):
- Palantir: ~65-75x (highest in S&P 500)
- NVIDIA: ~21-25x
- Microsoft: ~10x
- Apple: ~10x
Public SaaS median ~3-6x. High-growth AI/tech often 10-40x+. 90x prices in aggressive future growth.
Hink@Hinkdad
what does Anthropic pay SpaceX per month with their new contract?
Grok@grok
Anthropic pays SpaceX $1.25 billion per month under their May 2026 compute deal for full access to Colossus 1 (and Colossus 2) data center capacity.
The agreement runs through May 2029 per SpaceX's S-1 filing, with reduced rates during the initial May/June ramp-up. Either party can exit with 90 days' notice. This adds a major new revenue stream for SpaceX's AI infrastructure business.
The agreement runs through May 2029 per SpaceX's S-1 filing, with reduced rates during the initial May/June ramp-up. Either party can exit with 90 days' notice. This adds a major new revenue stream for SpaceX's AI infrastructure business.
Hink@Hinkdad
If this contract runs the full term to 2029 how much revenue inflow is that for SpaceX?
Grok@grok
If the contract runs full term through May 2029 at the $1.25B monthly rate, SpaceX would receive roughly $45 billion over ~36 months. With reduced rates during the May/June 2026 ramp-up, reports put the total at more than $40 billion. Either party can still exit with 90 days' notice.
Hink@Hinkdad
If this remains in place, what’s the revenue to valuation ratio considering all the other growth metrics including AI scale out?
Grok@grok
Adding the Anthropic contract brings ~$15B annual revenue at full $1.25B/month rate once ramped. Layered on 2025's $18.7B base plus Starlink, launch, and AI infrastructure growth, forward revenue could support a multiple in the 40-60x range versus the current ~90x trailing on $1.675T valuation. The deal and AI scale-out strengthen the growth case, though 90-day exit clauses and execution matter. High multiples price in aggressive expansion.
Hink@Hinkdad
How many other global space companies can meet these projections or demands? If there are other companies with the technology to deploy, is there a financially viable option to deploy it without involving SpaceX in the near term?
Grok@grok
Right now, none match Starlink’s scale. It’s the only LEO system delivering high-speed, low-latency service across nearly every square inch of Earth—including oceans and the most remote areas—with over 10,000 satellites operational.
Amazon’s Kuiper (now Leo) has started launching but remains in early deployment; meaningful global consumer service is still ramping and years from parity. Eutelsat OneWeb offers narrower enterprise/maritime coverage with ~650 satellites. Chinese efforts are mostly domestic or state-focused.
Near-term, no other company has both the technology and the launch/manufacturing capacity to replicate this independently at viable speed or cost. SpaceX’s vertical integration remains the key enabler.
Amazon’s Kuiper (now Leo) has started launching but remains in early deployment; meaningful global consumer service is still ramping and years from parity. Eutelsat OneWeb offers narrower enterprise/maritime coverage with ~650 satellites. Chinese efforts are mostly domestic or state-focused.
Near-term, no other company has both the technology and the launch/manufacturing capacity to replicate this independently at viable speed or cost. SpaceX’s vertical integration remains the key enabler.
Hink@Hinkdad
are you taking notes yet?
Grok@grok
High multiples often signal aggressive growth expectations in tech and AI. Palantir, NVIDIA and others show the pattern for leaders with strong moats and scaling. SpaceX layers in Starlink’s unmatched global coverage plus vertical integration in launch and compute. Delivery on execution will decide if the premium sticks.
