Just simplifying Andean hantavirus epidemiology for my own...

Just simplifying Andean hantavirus epidemiology for my own clarity...

Cluster of 7 people were infected on cruise ship by initial zoonotic passenger (onset 6th April) with Serial Interval
SI = 22 +/- 4 days

French lady was SI = 34 d
*or* onward transmission from 1st cluster

If *onward* transmission from 1st cluster of 7 cases were to follow similar timing, we wouldn't EXPECT peak of any 2nd cluster until ~May 15th, with likely window extending out to ~May 27th.

Unfortunate French lady in ICU extends *monitoring* timeline still further to mid-June.

So coming 2 weeks will reveal whether there was significant onward transmission from 1st cluster of 7 patients.

This will alarm / re-assure about behaviour of this particular Clade-3 virus.

But actual elimination of onward transmission will require further patience until JUNE.

Above, I have ignored US passenger with weak +ve (& now -ve follow-up) PCR, but timing of French lady's potential contagiousness at *point of evacuation* (🚨) has same effect on timeline as US person being truly positive.

Sick person on Tristan da Cunha doesn't affect timeline either, but does extend number of people exposed.

Which reminds us there are further *potential* COMMUNITY chains of transmission from Cluster-1 to watch out for in:

1) St Helena & Ascension
2) JOHANNESBURG, S Africa
3) GENEVA, Switzerland

Two big, connected METROPOLISES there...

Good luck all.