Most of you degens bought $ELMT on the IPO hoping for a quick flip...
Mike@BlackScholesMan
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May 03, 2026
~2 min read
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Most of you degens bought $ELMT on the IPO hoping for a quick flip and sold when it didn't happen. I actually took the time to understand the company and how it just became a critical national security player. Here's what you missed 🧵
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What does $ELMT make?
CMC division: ONLY U.S. vertically integrated maker of engineered tungsten & molybdenum. Raw powder to multiple DOD programs. Zero Chinese supply chain.
EMP division: Radar waveguides, directed energy, fusion reactor components. Up to 60 MEGAWATTS output.
CMC division: ONLY U.S. vertically integrated maker of engineered tungsten & molybdenum. Raw powder to multiple DOD programs. Zero Chinese supply chain.
EMP division: Radar waveguides, directed energy, fusion reactor components. Up to 60 MEGAWATTS output.
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China controls 80% of global tungsten and has been weaponizing it since Feb 2025.
Friday China blacklisted 7 European defense firms from receiving Chinese dual-use materials.
$ELMT's entire supply chain sits outside China. That's not a competitive advantage. That's a national security asset.
Friday China blacklisted 7 European defense firms from receiving Chinese dual-use materials.
$ELMT's entire supply chain sits outside China. That's not a competitive advantage. That's a national security asset.
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$ELMT's tungsten & moly goes into virtually everything that flies, fires, or protects: Missiles, Aircraft, Submarines, Hypersonics, Directed energy, Satellites, Nuclear reactors, Semiconductor fabs
6 major missile programs alone are ramping 2x–10x through 2033. They only disclosed content for ONE of 7+ missile systems in their prospectus. They never disclose any other programs.
6 major missile programs alone are ramping 2x–10x through 2033. They only disclosed content for ONE of 7+ missile systems in their prospectus. They never disclose any other programs.
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No analyst is modeling this
The income statement they IPO'd on was built on PRE-RAMP rates.
At IPO date:
New tungsten furnace not installed yet (Q3 2026)
Spare extrusion press sitting IDLE in storage
EMP running at 50–60% capacity
Defense backlog just surged 76% YoY
The revenue is a lagging indicator. The ramp hasn't hit the P&L yet.
The income statement they IPO'd on was built on PRE-RAMP rates.
At IPO date:
New tungsten furnace not installed yet (Q3 2026)
Spare extrusion press sitting IDLE in storage
EMP running at 50–60% capacity
Defense backlog just surged 76% YoY
The revenue is a lagging indicator. The ramp hasn't hit the P&L yet.
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The math when the ramp hits:
Fixed OpEx ~$29M. Barely moves as revenue scales. Every incremental dollar to $0.20 to operating income.
2027E bull case: Revenue: $350MNet income: ~$40–45M Current market cap: $515M
That's a 12x forward PE on a sole-source defense materials manufacturer with zero non-China competition.
Fixed OpEx ~$29M. Barely moves as revenue scales. Every incremental dollar to $0.20 to operating income.
2027E bull case: Revenue: $350MNet income: ~$40–45M Current market cap: $515M
That's a 12x forward PE on a sole-source defense materials manufacturer with zero non-China competition.
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$USAR trades at $5.6B market cap on $2M revenue. Pre-revenue.
$MP trades at 44x sales. Also not profitable.
$ELMT trades at 2.6x sales. Profitable. In 7+ active missile systems. The catalyst isn't financial. It's narrative. The moment one analyst calls this a critical minerals play instead of an industrial manufacturer the multiple re-rates overnight.
That coverage hasn't started yet.
$MP trades at 44x sales. Also not profitable.
$ELMT trades at 2.6x sales. Profitable. In 7+ active missile systems. The catalyst isn't financial. It's narrative. The moment one analyst calls this a critical minerals play instead of an industrial manufacturer the multiple re-rates overnight.
That coverage hasn't started yet.
