Here's a megathread on the war on Iran that focuses on the deeper...

This is geopolitics for liberation.
- Israel is a genocidal apartheid state
- Trump is an incompetent, corrupt warmonger
- Iran's regime is a brutal, repressive theocracy
God bless and save the people of the region, they're the hope for change.
"Never again be weak, never again be at someone's mercy. The world is a field of danger. We can only be safe if we dominate".
- Do not trust, dominate
- Destroy threats before they arise
- Judge capacity and not intent
Hope that dropping enough bombs will make you safe, and live in a mix of jubilation and terror.
The more isolated it'll get, the more violent it'll become.
The more violent it becomes, the more isolated it'll get.
There's no off-ramp.
Everything else now flows downstream from this reality.
Not because Israel's victory (or defeat) is imminent.
Not because after this war, Israel will find peace.
But because Israel will be in a constant state of war from here on, as a very condition of its existence.
There may be a ceasefire at some point, but Israel will not stop trying to collapse Iran's regime. And the regime rightly sees it as existential.
Or is it not a regime change war and "no democracy building exercise", as Hegseth said?
Or is it to get rid of the missiles and navy, as Rubio said?
You can't win a war if you don't know what you want out of it.
If it's for regime change, you need ground troops. The US doesn't have nearly enough troops in the region for this, and no separatist group in Iran is up to the task.
It seems Trump had envisioned a short war with a highly visible win, something that echoes Venezuela: Take out the top guy, get a ceasefire, declare victory. That clearly didn't work.
Starting with the serious systemic shock if the Straits of Hormuz are closed.
The Houthis, who are much less equipped, shut Red Sea shipping by targeting ships with drones and missiles. Imagine what the IRGC can do.
Long-term closure would trigger a systemic shock and spike global inflation in energy and food. You'll have domino effects reverberating across the world.
It's one thing to achieve your goals at a high cost. It's another to pay a very high cost and still not achieve your goals.
For the US, this is a war with no clear objectives, no upside, and enormous systemic risks - regardless how much they destroy or how many they kill in Iran.
A few are stupid enough to feel they must humiliate themselves and grovel to Trump to keep him on side when it comes to NATO.
Mark Rutte, who once called Trump "daddy", lies out of both sides of his mouth in his attempts to steelman this war.
- This isn't their war
- Degradation of international law is a more serious and lasting a threat to Europe than the Iranian regime ever was
- Getting dragged in can make them a target of Iranian retaliation, including terrorism
The rise in energy prices alone can fully fund his war in Ukraine, at a time when systemic stresses were starting to appear in his war machine.
Disaster for Europe.
Well, because its leadership are low-quality, compromised and beholden to Israel.
This war makes no sense to the US or Europe. This is Israel's war. Netanyahu dog walked Trump into war twice and he'll do it again if he can.
No Western leader dares to say this yet, but Israel is well on its way to becoming a geopolitical liability.
This is Israel's war, and it can still declare victory at the end of it. Everyone else will lose.
The IRGC will fight to the bitter end - even if it means turning Iran into a nightmare for any successor regime.
And hand it over to who, anyway? There's no alternative power center in Iran to hand the reins to.
And so long the IRGC sees the war in existential terms, it has every incentive to escalate, and no incentive to de-escalate. This is not just a function of their ideology, but of their survival impulse
But this is also a taste of the IRGC: If the regime falters, the chaos won't stay within Iran. This isn't a regime built to go out quietly.
This is "mutually assured destruction" by another name - ensure the pain is shared by all.
When that promise is broken, capital flees, talent leaves, real estate devalues, and financial hubs start to look elsewhere.
But there are others who came to make money, raise families, and live in luxury, not to live under the constant threat of drones and missiles.
But what was forever a core promise that you can take for granted, now becomes something questioned and contested. This may not cause an immediate mass exodus, but its damage can compound.
Past the first few weeks, fatigue can start to set in, and can really stress the social makeup of these countries.
The alliance with the US was meant to guarantee security, but it made them targets.
Even in the midst of these events, the US focuses more on protecting Israel.
When the petrodollar system cracks, the entire global system stands to change.
The regime absorbs the blows. The US/Israel cause a lot of damage, but cannot eliminate the system. A ceasefire is declared. The regime survives but is degraded, anxious, less stable, and more beholden to the IRGC.
Israel looks for the next round.
And in case of another round of protests, they won't hesitate to massacre.
The IRGC shifts to low-cost, high-pain harassment: Routine attacks on Gulf shipping, proxy activation, cyber, terrorism.
The US opts for a draw down, despite Israel pushing to continue.
The regime survives degraded but makes the region chronically unstable.
US weapons systems are expensive, and built to fight conventional enemies. IRGC methods and weapons are made for insurgencies and attrition: Cheap, lower tech, sufficient vs soft targets.
This isn't imminent. But long term, repeated degradation cycles can compound pressure to the point that the regime starts to lose coherence.
Separatist movements within Iran start to gain success, drawing in bigger countries: Iraq, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Pakistan.
The IRGC switches into insurgency mode. No successor emerges - instead you get warlordism and fragmentation.
The result is massive civilian suffering, refugee waves, and a long civil war.
Or, this round can transition into a long attrition with no "official" end.
Is there a way out?
This can stop the cycle in its tracks.
Khamenei had a fatwa against nukes, but he's dead, and it's obvious that had Iran had nukes, it wouldn't be under existential threat.
Getting nukes is now the most rational self-preservation move for the regime.
theguardian.com/world/2023/sep…
Publicly, it frames the war as "liberation" and calls Iranians to "rise up", but the truth is, Israel doesn't care about them. Its real aim is to accelerate chaos and block any strong, unified successor.
And it's not exactly thinking long term. It's taking this round by round, and will use whatever opening is available to feel "safer".
In a divided region, Israel can thrive. Unity anywhere is a threat.
The truth is, almost everyone is scared and anxious.
This is also dangerous for everyone else. The IRGC could retaliate in kind across the world.
Yet it retains a loyal support base, especially in rural and conservative areas.
Deep polarization among Iranians doesn't bode well for any post-regime future.
Truth is, the Pahlavi movement is traumatized, dysfunctional, and increasingly toxic.
This has bred anger, dysfunction, and patterns of behavior that alienate many people who want to stand in solidarity.
Do they realize how this looks to the rest of the world? Doing the dance of a pedophile under a genocidal flag?
Looks like Pahlavi didn't learn the lesson from Machado.
Instead of advancing, the Iran freedom cause could regress for years.
Real progress demands slow, strategic, trauma-informed organizing, not shortcuts through collaboration with genociders and predators.
We will never stop believing in a free Iran.
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