GW12 HELPDESK 📌 The Best Gabriel Replacements 📌 ⁠Enzo: Keep or...

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GW12 HELPDESK

📌 The Best Gabriel Replacements
📌 ⁠Enzo: Keep or Sell?
📌 Top midfield picks for the next 5 GWs
📌 ⁠Man City: Opp or Trap?
📌 ⁠Best Budget Defensive Options

A thread 🧵

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The Best Gabriel Replacements

We’re pretty sure that you would’ve read plenty of content by now on the hottest topic that’s come out of this int’l break, which is about choosing the best replacement for Gabriel, who is rumoured to be out for at least a month. Here’s our picks:

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The most obvious switch will be to Van Dijk. LIV have decent fixtures till GW19 and despite their shaky defensive form this season, we expect them to consolidate their defensive numbers over this period. He has no xMins risk & at 5.9m, owned by 23.7%, he’s a good option.

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If you’re inclined to sticking with an Arsenal defender then moving to Timber makes the most sense. He is owned by 26.2% managers and at 6.2m, his attacking threat from RB with very impressive ICT index rankings, makes him one of the top options that helps to keep the flow.

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Senesi is a DEFCON monster as we all know and at 5.0m, he offers to free up some money that can be invested elsewhere too. BOU despite their recent slump, have decent fixtures coming up vs WHU, SUN, EVE and we expect them to regain the form we had seen earlier in the season.

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A relatively short-term switch you can consider is a move to get Matty Cash. Villa have been in sparkling form with 5 wins in their last 6 PL games, and face LEE, WOL and BHA in their next three games. He’s a differential option with just 5.8% ownership, and is priced at 4.6m.

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The cheapest replacement option is from one of the PL’s top performing defences in Crystal Palace, and it’s Richards. At 4.5m, he offers solidity & the rotation risk is very minimal despite European football. His underlying numbers are decent, despite lesser bonus points so far.

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Enzo: Keep or Sell?

With just 9 points from the last 5 GWs, managers are starting to grow impatient with Enzo and with rumours that he may also be injured, here’s what we think of the situation:

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Among PL midfielders this season, Enzo ranks 1st for through passes completed, npxG + xA, Shots on Target, Pre-assists and is 2nd for passes to the penalty box. Despite this, he is also among the Top 5 for xGI underperformance this season. Owned by 13.7% and priced at 6.7m, he

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has a terrific GW12 fixture vs BUR, and only the ARS fixture in GW13 among the next five, where he could be benched for your FPL teams.

Despite his underperformance, we’re inclined to keep him for now, and re-evaluate around GW16 when the AFCON transfers scenario comes up.

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Top midfield picks for the next 5 GWs

With another int’l break coming to an end, a lot of the FPL discussion has been centred around the ideal midfield picks for the upcoming GWs, and here’s who we think you shouldn’t miss out on:

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Gakpo (7.5m) is a great option with LIV’s terrific fixtures till GW19. He already has 5 G+A & is owned by just 13% managers. Despite playing significantly lesser minutes than Salah, Gakpo’s key attacking metrics like number of shots and key passes are on par with those of Salah.

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Saka is firmly back on everyone’s radar after GW11, and we’d be keeping him for the next few GWs as Arsenal despite some tricky fixtures vs TOT, CHE & BRE coming up. He has been underperforming his xGI (4.67) by just getting 3 goals so far, but could turn around his form soon.

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Mbeumo is one player who’ll be heading off to AFCON in December, but his fixtures in the coming GWs, makes him a top choice. He’s priced at 8.5m and owned by 33.3% managers and the underlying numbers prove why. Infact, he has superior shots & xA numbers than Bruno too.

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Despite rumours of his unavailability for GW12, we’re persisting with Semenyo (7.8m) as his underlying numbers show the potential of why he can turn around his form. BOU have decent fixtures coming up, and we’d expect Semenyo to shine before he heads off to the AFCON.

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Palace are in the Top 4 for xG & big chances this season and are in the Top 6 for xG over the last 5 games too. Sarr, still only owned by 13.2% managers is in the Top 3 for xGI among midfielders under 7m, and his next three fixtures are against bottom-5 xGC teams.

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Man City: Opp or Trap?

With 5 wins in their last 6 PL games, Man City have well and truly found their rhythm and while we’re sure of having Haaland in our teams, here’s our take on some of the other FPL options that are being discussed:

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O’Reilly has been taking up very attacking positions from LB & he is a differential worth considering at his ownership of just 2.3%. His two assists in the last 5 GWs is impressive for a 5.0m defender for a top team. The only downside is that he could be rotated with Ait Nouri.

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Gvardiol, on the other hand, is more secure in terms of xMins, after his return from injury. He has started in each of City’s last 5 PL wins at CB, and at an ownership of just 5.1%, he could offer a differential alternative, incentivised by his set-piece threat.

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Foden, despite his return to the team, has not been in the best of form and his underlying numbers are testament to the same. While he occupies very attacking positions in play, he has just amassed an xGI of 2.81 from 8 starts this season. We’ll avoid Foden for now.

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After his stellar performance vs Liverpool, Doku has come into the limelight. He’s priced at 6.4m and owned by 5.9% managers. With City’s upcoming fixtures, we believe he can be considered as a differential from GW13 but rotation risk with Marmoush being fit again is a risk.

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The Bois Picks:

Haaland (of course) > Gvardiol > O’Reilly > Doku

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Best Budget Defensive Options

With a lot of flags throwing a wind of uncertainty, FPL managers have been on the look out for some budget defensive options (5.0m and lesser) to slot into their teams. Here are some of the options:

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Palace’s defence has been solid, ranking top 4 for xGC in the league, and their next 3 of 4 fixtures are against bottom-5 xGC sides. Lacroix now adds to that appeal with 2CS in a row and Defcon returns in 6 matches this season.

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If you’re looking for a cheaper option from the Palace defence, Richards at 4.5m is worth considering. He’s also picked up Defcon points in 6 games so far, and with Palace’s strong defensive numbers, he offers solid value

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O’Reilly is going under the radar at just 2.3% ownership. He carries attacking threat with 2 assists in his last 5 games & City’s defence has been strong, top 2 for xGC with 3 CS in their last 5. With the next five fixtures looking good on paper, he’s a good budget differential.

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De Ligt offers secure xMins, having played every game this season. A budget differential with strong aerial threat, especially with United dangerous on set pieces. With good fixtures until GW21, if United build momentum, more clean sheets should follow.

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GW12 HELPDESK 📌 The Best Gabriel Replacements 📌 ⁠Enzo: Keep or...

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