News/Politics thread by @SunBeltPolitics

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Well folks, it's the first of the month, the Saturday before the election. It is time for my final predictions.

Buckle up, this is going to be quite a lengthy thread with some hot takes, but it's time. 🧵[1/]

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First of all, I made a short video entailing all my predictions. It is less of an election night video, and more just a summary of my predictions in a quick slideshow-type video. Links at the top of threads seemingly get less traction, so here it is [2/]
youtube.com/watch?v=y-v6Ie…

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Firstly is New Jersey Governor. This is somewhat the expected outcome, I think Sherrill underperforms Harris, but only by ~1%. She hasn't run a really strong race, her focus is much more federal, and Jack is a fair candidate. Polls have it about here (average) and I agree [3/]

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Virginia is always the show stopper of off-year elections, no different here. I expect Spanberger to win fairly handily, around 2017 and 2020 President. Sears has run a fairly lacking campaign, Trump proves unpopular in VA, and turnout boosts Spanberger [4/]

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Polls have had the Lt. Governor race extremely close, and I'm not sure I see it. Hashmi underperforms the top due to downballot lag and little coverage, but not super close. This is not the race where I see there being an extreme split. Fair win, just over Harris 24. [5/]

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This is the heat of the prediction and will be what I cover strongly. I have seen enough data within the past few days to honestly believe Miyares can win. If anything blows up on me, this is it. However, the scandal has damaged Jones and his numbers hit a low floor. [6/]

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Miyares leads the average, but I'm not sure he finishes that strong. However, the average of averages I have has Spanberger +9.5 and Miyares +1.3, a 10.8% split. In polls where Spanberger is up by over 10%, there's an 11% split with AG. He can do it, but it's CLOSE [7/]

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New York City's Mayoral race is one area I'm not very certain on outside Zohran winning. I think it could be different if this was a true one-on-one, but a Cuomo/Sliwa split allows Zohran to win by a healthy margin. Not sure on boroughs, just looked at the primary really.

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And last, but certainly not least, is Prop 50 in California. It passes fairly easily, just barely underperforming Harris. UC Berkeley, whose polls are a good standard to my understanding, has it +22, 60-38. I see it a tad bit under, nothing special here. [9/]

                            10
                        
And, well, that's the end of the thread.  Not sure if anybody will actually read through all of this, but here it is.  Obviously Virginia's AG race is the tough spot.  However, polls have generally shown Miyares can do it.

I appreciate a like, retweet, and follow if you can!!

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@EarthoOS The average of polls that have Spanberger winning by >10% that are since the scandal (besides Roanoke) have her +11.4 or so and Jones +0.2.  I don't think she wins by THAT much and therefore think Miyares is at slight favor.

Only tough part is that polls still have 9% undecided.

Well folks, it's the first of the month, the Saturday before the...

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