@FRHoffmann1 ↔ @ischinger conversation
Fabian Hoffmann, PhD@FRHoffmann1
18 views
Sep 24, 2025
~2 min read
Advertisement
Fabian Hoffmann, PhD@FRHoffmann1
Russia would likely begin a war against NATO at extremely high intensity.
Knowing it cannot win in the long term, Russia's goal would be to inflict as many casualties as possible along the frontline, even at the cost of much higher losses on its own side, in the hope that Western societies would not tolerate such casualty figures and would grow war weary quickly.
Germany and NATO should therefore absolutely prepare for this scenario and plan their hospitalization capacities accordingly.
Knowing it cannot win in the long term, Russia's goal would be to inflict as many casualties as possible along the frontline, even at the cost of much higher losses on its own side, in the hope that Western societies would not tolerate such casualty figures and would grow war weary quickly.
Germany and NATO should therefore absolutely prepare for this scenario and plan their hospitalization capacities accordingly.
GeoInsider@InsiderGeo
BREAKING: Germany’s armed forces are planning for up to 1,000 wounded troops per day in a potential NATO-Russia conflict, with hospital trains, frontline stabilization, and expanded medical services. This comes after France revealed hospitals are preparing for 10,000–50,000 casualties by 2026
Wolfgang Ischinger@ischinger
Likely?? If you are not so sure do not scare the hell out of a public which is already scared to death. Whose intentions do you believe you are advancing?
Fabian Hoffmann, PhD@FRHoffmann1
Personally, I'm pretty certain, but I don't have a crystal ball.
We may differ in our views here, but my assumption is that the best we can do for our societies is to be frank and prepare them for the worst-case scenario.
We may differ in our views here, but my assumption is that the best we can do for our societies is to be frank and prepare them for the worst-case scenario.
Wolfgang Ischinger@ischinger
Governments need to prepare for the worst case, indeed! The public, however, needs to be reassured the worst will not happen because government spends huge amounts to continue to provide for credible and functioning deterrence.
Fabian Hoffmann, PhD@FRHoffmann1
In my view, there can be no societal resilience without an informed public, or at least it becomes significantly harder to achieve.
I recently gave a three-day intensive seminar to an interdisciplinary group of German students on nuclear strategy and nuclear war. Afterwards, I asked whether they felt more or less fearful now that they understood how a nuclear war might unfold and what considerations shape decision-making.
Without exception, every student said they felt better because they felt informed. I have no control group for the topic above, but I am quite certain the effect would be the same.
I recently gave a three-day intensive seminar to an interdisciplinary group of German students on nuclear strategy and nuclear war. Afterwards, I asked whether they felt more or less fearful now that they understood how a nuclear war might unfold and what considerations shape decision-making.
Without exception, every student said they felt better because they felt informed. I have no control group for the topic above, but I am quite certain the effect would be the same.
Wolfgang Ischinger@ischinger
Academic Deep Dive : YES, of course. Urgent. Public Discourse: make sure you dont feed the crocodile. . .
