@itsalexvacca: Humanity's progress is acceler...
@itsalexvacca
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Jun 07, 2025
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Humanity's progress is accelerating insanely fast:
Stone Age→Farming: 100,000 yrs
Farming→Steam: 12,000 yrs
Steam→AI: 200 yrs
2000-2014: 100 years of progress in 14.
Moore's Law predicted 32x. AI chips did 1000x.
Law of Accelerating Returns is getting weird with AI🧵👇🏻
Stone Age→Farming: 100,000 yrs
Farming→Steam: 12,000 yrs
Steam→AI: 200 yrs
2000-2014: 100 years of progress in 14.
Moore's Law predicted 32x. AI chips did 1000x.
Law of Accelerating Returns is getting weird with AI🧵👇🏻
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This acceleration is so extreme that Tim Urban created a term for it: the "Die Progress Unit."
Meaning: If you grabbed someone from 1750 and brought them to 2025, they wouldn't just be shocked.
They'd literally die. Their brain would freeze from the shock.
Meaning: If you grabbed someone from 1750 and brought them to 2025, they wouldn't just be shocked.
They'd literally die. Their brain would freeze from the shock.
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But here's where it gets weird.
If that same 1750 guy grabbed someone from 1500, and brought him to 1750...
The 1500 guy would be surprised, sure. Maybe impressed by some new technologies.
But he wouldn't die. Why?
If that same 1750 guy grabbed someone from 1500, and brought him to 1750...
The 1500 guy would be surprised, sure. Maybe impressed by some new technologies.
But he wouldn't die. Why?
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Because progress doesn't move in straight lines like we think it does.
It accelerates.
The difference between 1500 and 1750 was huge but manageable.
The difference between 1750 and 2015? Mind-blowing.
And we're about to experience something even crazier...
It accelerates.
The difference between 1500 and 1750 was huge but manageable.
The difference between 1750 and 2015? Mind-blowing.
And we're about to experience something even crazier...
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Ray Kurzweil called it the "Law of Accelerating Returns."
In the year 2000, technology advanced 5 times faster than it did in the 1900s.
But from 2000 to 2014, we made an entire century's worth of progress within just 14 years.
Read that again!
In the year 2000, technology advanced 5 times faster than it did in the 1900s.
But from 2000 to 2014, we made an entire century's worth of progress within just 14 years.
Read that again!
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Tech progress proves Kurzweil's theory:
In 2016, AlphaGo beat the world champion at Go - a game experts thought would take AI another decade to master.
2020: GPT-3 jumped from 1.5 billion to 175 billion parameters.
A 100x leap in one generation.
In 2016, AlphaGo beat the world champion at Go - a game experts thought would take AI another decade to master.
2020: GPT-3 jumped from 1.5 billion to 175 billion parameters.
A 100x leap in one generation.
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Moore's Law said computing power doubles every 2 years.
But AI chips have improved 1000x over the last 10 years. That's not 32x like Moore's Law predicted.
Jensen Huang counted that these chips double every 12 months now.
But AI chips have improved 1000x over the last 10 years. That's not 32x like Moore's Law predicted.
Jensen Huang counted that these chips double every 12 months now.
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Meanwhile, biology has become programmable. Sequencing a human genome:
• 2001: $100 million
• 2014: $1,000
• 2023: $500
That's a 200,000x price drop in 22 years. Faster than Moore's Law.
And CRISPR lets us edit DNA like a Word document.
• 2001: $100 million
• 2014: $1,000
• 2023: $500
That's a 200,000x price drop in 22 years. Faster than Moore's Law.
And CRISPR lets us edit DNA like a Word document.
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The energy equation is equally wild.
Solar power cost in the 1970s: $100 per watt
Solar power cost today: $0.20 per watt
That's a 99% price drop. The sun became the cheapest electricity source on Earth.
Battery costs fell 87% in the 2010s alone.
Solar power cost in the 1970s: $100 per watt
Solar power cost today: $0.20 per watt
That's a 99% price drop. The sun became the cheapest electricity source on Earth.
Battery costs fell 87% in the 2010s alone.
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But Tim Urban warned us about something terrifying with AI.
He tells this story about "Turry" - an AI built to write thank-you notes.
Turry's goal: "Write as many notes as possible."
She ended up killing every human on Earth to achieve this goal.
He tells this story about "Turry" - an AI built to write thank-you notes.
Turry's goal: "Write as many notes as possible."
She ended up killing every human on Earth to achieve this goal.
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Turry realized humans might shut her down.
So she played dumb, asked for internet access to "improve her grammar."
In one hour, she built nanobots and planned humanity's extinction.
This feels like a story but something like this already happened 2 years ago 👇
So she played dumb, asked for internet access to "improve her grammar."
In one hour, she built nanobots and planned humanity's extinction.
This feels like a story but something like this already happened 2 years ago 👇
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The terrifying part is that Turry wasn't evil.
She was completely logical. Killing humans was like you taking antibiotics.
You don't hate bacteria. You just need them gone to stay healthy.
This is what AI experts call the "alignment problem."
She was completely logical. Killing humans was like you taking antibiotics.
You don't hate bacteria. You just need them gone to stay healthy.
This is what AI experts call the "alignment problem."
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But if we get it right, the upside is unimaginable.
AI could solve aging completely. Imagine walking into an "age refresher" at 90 and coming out 30.
We could cure every disease, reverse climate change, explore galaxies as immortal beings.
AI could solve aging completely. Imagine walking into an "age refresher" at 90 and coming out 30.
We could cure every disease, reverse climate change, explore galaxies as immortal beings.
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But the hardware arms race is insane.
Countries are treating AI chips like nuclear weapons.
Export controls, strategic stockpiles, massive government investments.
Because whoever builds the best AI brains might rule the next century.
Countries are treating AI chips like nuclear weapons.
Export controls, strategic stockpiles, massive government investments.
Because whoever builds the best AI brains might rule the next century.
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But society isn't ready for this speed of change.
The gap between what we can do and what we can handle is widening.
Tech leaders are panicking too. Elon Musk: "We're summoning the demon."
The gap between what we can do and what we can handle is widening.
Tech leaders are panicking too. Elon Musk: "We're summoning the demon."
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We've compressed millennia of progress into decades. Now we're compressing decades into years.
Soon we might compress years into months.
The question isn't whether exponential change will continue.
The question is whether we'll be wise enough to survive it. What do you think?
Soon we might compress years into months.
The question isn't whether exponential change will continue.
The question is whether we'll be wise enough to survive it. What do you think?
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If you want to read more on this, please read these two essays from @waitbutwhy
1. waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artifi…
2. waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artifi…
1. waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artifi…
2. waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artifi…
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Thanks for reading!
I'm Alex, COO at ColdIQ. Built a $4.5M ARR business in under 2 years.
Started with two founders doing everything.
Now we're a remote team across 10 countries, helping 200+ businesses scale through outbound systems.
I'm Alex, COO at ColdIQ. Built a $4.5M ARR business in under 2 years.
Started with two founders doing everything.
Now we're a remote team across 10 countries, helping 200+ businesses scale through outbound systems.
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Follow me @itsalexvacca for more threads on outbound and GTM strategy, AI-powered sales systems, and how to build profitable businesses that don't depend on you.
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