In the last 24 hours, Musk has attempted a coup against Trump. It...

In the last 24 hours, Musk has attempted a coup against Trump. It has failed, and will continue to fail. Every aspect of this power-play has been ill-conceived and poorly executed.

There are lessons. 🧵on Machiavelli, wealth, and power:

Though few of us will be vying for power on the national stage, all of us have to think about influence, relationships, and objectives within our local environments.

The core dynamic at play in this saga is the clash of wealth versus institutional power.

This episode makes a compelling case study; it pits the richest man in history against the most powerful man in the world.

First let’s understand the factors at play: wealth and institutional power.

Wealth is the accumulation of assets and money.

Some assets will be strategically significant in projecting power, like X and SpaceX, while some will not be, like Neuralink and Tesla. More on these momentarily.

The ability to translate money into power is highly contingent.

Money is a medium of exchange, and gains value in the presence of a functioning market. Money only translates into power in the presence of a market in which their are assets or individuals for sale which are strategically significant in generating power.

Money does not have intrinsic value outside of what it can buy; it represents only the potential to own things and people which actually exist.

If there is a shortage of things to buy which are strategically significant, then there is a insurmountable supply-side issue which renders money valueless in generating political power.

Increasing power on short timelines is more difficult still.

At any one moment, there are likely to be few things on the market which buy power.

Examples are media companies, social media platforms, strategically important industries, transport and logistics networks (think Trucker Protest), and the loyalty of key people who are temporarily without a liege.

It is thus essential to be constantly converting liquid capital back into hard assets which have meaning in the real world, because attempting to do this on short order will be difficult due to the infrequency of the availability of these assets, & the fact that it takes time...

…to establish network effects, personal loyalty, and to project stability and strength.

Musk has an actual chip here - SpaceX, upon which programs of national importance depend - but alone this asset is radically insufficient and can be taken by force.

For capital to be a true source of power, two conditions must be met: the sovereign must depend on an external source of financing, and that capital should be independently militarily secured by a third party. Neither is true here.

In fact, Musk’s empire is uniquely vulnerable because it depends on state contracts, subsidies, and clearances, and it is not possible to move abroad.

As Machiavelli advises, “contrary to the vulgar opinion, money is not the sinews of war… but good soldiers; for while gold by itself will not gain you good soldiers, good soldiers may readily get you gold."

Money can be an effective force amplifier, and this was the role that Musk played in Trump’s otherwise well organized and popular campaign. But a force amplifier needs something to attach to - it should never be misconstrued as force in its own right.

Wealth is only one form of capital: others are relationships, loyalties, advantageous laws, conventions, and the capacity for force. In each of these categories, Trump clearly has the upper hand to a degree that it is difficult to overstate.

Trump has the loyalty of the head of every agency in the most powerful country in the world, while the best shows of support that Musk could muster and amplify were from figures like ‘citizen journalist’ Autism Capital and Ian Miles Cheong.

Even if Musk were more popular than Trump on social media (doubtful), a limited number of powerful and relevant loyalties means far more than the diffuse international ‘popularity’ provided by Musk’s social media antics. To be blunt: Indian ‘likes’ count for nothing.

Social media is ineffective at quickly and directly converting to real-world power. Instead it should be understood as a ‘top of funnel’ for potential relationships.

Trump understands this, and strengthens personal loyalty among his online base by converting it into rallies and by generating the real-world effects which they seek.

A lesson: for those of us not playing the national game, the accumulation of strategic assets might target local land, religious and social organizations, important local businesses, billboards and other local messaging vectors, political campaign apparatus, private…

…security, and so forth. If eventual political power is what you seek, don’t delay starting.

Musk, unfortunately, misunderstands the existential game of politics in many more ways. Some standout principles which it is essential for him to internalize:

1) If you publicly attack a powerful opponent, ensure that you defeat him entirely, otherwise he will recover and use his power to crush you mercilessly.

Accusing Trump of being a sexual predator will inevitably result in tremendous pain in return, while barely seeming to have stung Trump at all. Never publicly act from a position of weakness.

2) Don’t run your mouth or you will never again be trusted by important figures.

If they invite you into their inner circle, and you publicly weaponize their secrets after a relatively short honeymoon, never more will inner circles be available to you.

3) Oscillating wildly and erratically will prevent others from trying to build meaningful things with you.

This matters especially when you’re suggesting a path which would throw the nation into chaos (impeachment or other methods to remove the president.)

4) Patience and timing matters. Even if your attack was effective, don’t mount it years before your victim can be dispossessed.

Trump has an incredibly long time to punish you before stepping down.

Machiavelli urges the true king to be both lion and fox: able to project terrifying power while being sensitive to the subtle art of politics.

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