Putin wants to sell more Russian gas to Europe But can he? A thread...
Stephen Stapczynski@SStapczynski
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Mar 15, 2025
~2 min read
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The EU has made considerable headway in curbing its appetite for Russian pipeline gas after more than five decades of reliance, but continued pricing pressures could test the bloc’s resolve
(Albeit, Europe hasn’t reduced imports of Russian LNG)
(Albeit, Europe hasn’t reduced imports of Russian LNG)
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The EU has been working on a plan to phase out its remaining imports of Russian energy by 2027
But the potential for warmer relations between the US and Russia, and a potential peace deal in Ukraine, *could* present an opening to boost flows of gas to Europe
But the potential for warmer relations between the US and Russia, and a potential peace deal in Ukraine, *could* present an opening to boost flows of gas to Europe
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However, there are some major barriers to boosting Russian gas flows to Europe
📌 Many of Europe’s ties with Russian gas suppliers have been severed or soured in recent years
📌 Many of Europe’s ties with Russian gas suppliers have been severed or soured in recent years
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📌 There are also infrastructure bottlenecks
Both lines of the undersea Nord Stream pipeline were damaged by sabotage in 2022
The explosion took out one of the lines of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline too
Both lines of the undersea Nord Stream pipeline were damaged by sabotage in 2022
The explosion took out one of the lines of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline too
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Putin has repeatedly said that the undamaged string of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline is ready to supply Europe with Russian gas
BUT the system has never been certified for use by Germany. So first Russia would need to get an OK from the German government
BUT the system has never been certified for use by Germany. So first Russia would need to get an OK from the German government
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📌 Even in the unlikely event the German government reversed its opposition to this, the link would first require some maintenance as the last technical tests were conducted more than three years ago. It’s unclear how long such work would take
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📌 Flows through another network, the Yamal-Europe pipeline that runs across Poland, could be revived after stopping in 2022, but the Polish government would need to approve the reopening and has been firmly opposed to receiving gas from Russia
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📌 The likeliest scenario is restoring transit via Ukraine
This option could be win-win for both sides
But talks between the Russian gas giant and its Ukrainian counterpart Naftogaz have historically been painful and lengthy
This option could be win-win for both sides
But talks between the Russian gas giant and its Ukrainian counterpart Naftogaz have historically been painful and lengthy
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There will be more talk about boosting Russian gas to Europe. And it’s having an impact on the market — gas prices have dropped due in part to this speculation
But none of the options are straightforward. And the likeliest (Ukraine transit) only provides <5% of Europe’s demand
But none of the options are straightforward. And the likeliest (Ukraine transit) only provides <5% of Europe’s demand
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For those who don’t want to read, quick summary here 👇
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