Now is a turbulent time in our economy. My eldest son just started...
Michael Girdley@girdley
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Apr 14, 2025
~3 min read
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Now is a turbulent time in our economy.
My eldest son just started college.
He asked me what careers to pursue, and what to avoid.
Here’s what I told him:
My eldest son just started college.
He asked me what careers to pursue, and what to avoid.
Here’s what I told him:
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First, look at what trends are going on in the world.
- Globalization of workforce
- Reindustrialization of USA
- Shrinking birth rate
- Emergence of AI
- Increasing size of US gov’t spend
So what do you do with this knowledge?
First, what to AVOID:
- Globalization of workforce
- Reindustrialization of USA
- Shrinking birth rate
- Emergence of AI
- Increasing size of US gov’t spend
So what do you do with this knowledge?
First, what to AVOID:
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❌ Software Developers
Nobody is hiring American programmers anymore.
Even the elite engineering jobs are going overseas.
So that, plus a massive recession in tech plus AI, is bad news for much of coding.
Top 1% devs will be fine. The rest are getting automated.
Nobody is hiring American programmers anymore.
Even the elite engineering jobs are going overseas.
So that, plus a massive recession in tech plus AI, is bad news for much of coding.
Top 1% devs will be fine. The rest are getting automated.
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❌ Accounting / tax prep
This is the low hanging fruit for AI and offshore.
We will need fewer people to work on it.
Again, senior CPAs and strategists will be fine. But entry level/low/mid are in trouble.
An offshore computer programmer will build apps to do your taxes.
This is the low hanging fruit for AI and offshore.
We will need fewer people to work on it.
Again, senior CPAs and strategists will be fine. But entry level/low/mid are in trouble.
An offshore computer programmer will build apps to do your taxes.
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❌ Graphic design
Tools like Canva already let anybody do graphic design.
Illustration is getting eaten by AI too.
People will still need storytelling though:
Strategic marketing will stick around.
Tools like Canva already let anybody do graphic design.
Illustration is getting eaten by AI too.
People will still need storytelling though:
Strategic marketing will stick around.
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❌ Customer service / simple sales
If a person sitting at a desk in the Phillippines can do it.
You’re screwed.
Don’t start.
(To some extent, the offshore folks are also in trouble – AI is coming for these jobs.)
If a person sitting at a desk in the Phillippines can do it.
You’re screwed.
Don’t start.
(To some extent, the offshore folks are also in trouble – AI is coming for these jobs.)
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❌ Lawyers
I think lawyering firms are going to look more and more like modern CPA firms:
One or two people + offshore labor + AI.
It used to be 30 people in an office. Those days are gone.
I think lawyering firms are going to look more and more like modern CPA firms:
One or two people + offshore labor + AI.
It used to be 30 people in an office. Those days are gone.
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OK.. enough depression.
Instead, here are five GOOD options:
Instead, here are five GOOD options:
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✅ Anything tied to government contracts
There are tons of programmers and cybersecurity jobs that any private co would have pushed overseas.
But the government is always going to employ Americans.
Also: our govt-owned utilities only buy American equipment.
There are tons of programmers and cybersecurity jobs that any private co would have pushed overseas.
But the government is always going to employ Americans.
Also: our govt-owned utilities only buy American equipment.
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✅ Anything involving life or death
There are two approaches to this.
One is healthcare — hands-on careers.
The other is engineering, e.g. aerospace.
Designing your plane overseas is not worth the savings if it falls out of the sky.
There are two approaches to this.
One is healthcare — hands-on careers.
The other is engineering, e.g. aerospace.
Designing your plane overseas is not worth the savings if it falls out of the sky.
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✅ Entrepreneurship
Going into business for yourself has been a highly lucrative career since America was founded.
This is attractive, especially with the shrinking size of Gen Z.
There’s always going to be room for entrepreneurs to be entrepreneurs.
Going into business for yourself has been a highly lucrative career since America was founded.
This is attractive, especially with the shrinking size of Gen Z.
There’s always going to be room for entrepreneurs to be entrepreneurs.
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✅ Anything that touches physical things
Construction, manufacturing, HVAC maintenance, transport…
This is the stuff you can’t offshore.
And AI isn’t taking it over.
Except…
Construction, manufacturing, HVAC maintenance, transport…
This is the stuff you can’t offshore.
And AI isn’t taking it over.
Except…
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Humanoid robots are coming.
Eventually, a robot will drive up and fix your HVAC.
So, avoid any job that a humanoid robot will take.
(What do you think those jobs are?)
Eventually, a robot will drive up and fix your HVAC.
So, avoid any job that a humanoid robot will take.
(What do you think those jobs are?)
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✅ Finance/wealth management
Some parts of this are going offshore, no question.
But when it comes to people’s life savings, analyzing a big deal, or working with a bank…
There will be good jobs to have since this business is about trust and psychology.
Some parts of this are going offshore, no question.
But when it comes to people’s life savings, analyzing a big deal, or working with a bank…
There will be good jobs to have since this business is about trust and psychology.
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To recap:
❌ Software / analyst
❌ Accounting / tax prep
❌ Graphic design
❌ Customer service / basic sales
❌ Law / paralegals
✅ Anything government contracts
✅ Anything life and death
✅ Entrepreneurship
✅ Anything physical
✅ Finance / wealth management
❌ Software / analyst
❌ Accounting / tax prep
❌ Graphic design
❌ Customer service / basic sales
❌ Law / paralegals
✅ Anything government contracts
✅ Anything life and death
✅ Entrepreneurship
✅ Anything physical
✅ Finance / wealth management
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So what’s the takeaway?
The good news: globalization is raising the bar for humanity.
The bad news: a Rust Belt 2.0 is coming for many industries.
It’s going to be a wild ride.
The good news: globalization is raising the bar for humanity.
The bad news: a Rust Belt 2.0 is coming for many industries.
It’s going to be a wild ride.
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So that’s what I told my kids.
What have you told yours?
Where am I wrong?
Let me know in the comments!
(And if you found this valuable, likes / retweets / bookmarks are appreciated!)
What have you told yours?
Where am I wrong?
Let me know in the comments!
(And if you found this valuable, likes / retweets / bookmarks are appreciated!)
Michael Girdley@girdley
Now is a turbulent time in our economy.
My eldest son just started college.
He asked me what careers to pursue, and what to avoid.
Here’s what I told him:
My eldest son just started college.
He asked me what careers to pursue, and what to avoid.
Here’s what I told him:
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I think about this kind of thing a lot.
For more like it, subscribe to my free newsletter on all things business!
Business tactics, psychology of work… and occasionally looking into my crystal ball.
girdley.com/newsletter
For more like it, subscribe to my free newsletter on all things business!
Business tactics, psychology of work… and occasionally looking into my crystal ball.
girdley.com/newsletter
