As we move into the second month of the year, Frontelligence...
Tatarigami_UA@Tatarigami_UA
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Feb 04, 2025
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As we move into the second month of the year, Frontelligence Insight has prepared an early assessment report covering recent developments on the frontlines and within both Ukrainian and Russian military forces. Below are some key highlights from the report.
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1/ 🧵Thread:
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2/ The frontline dynamics for Ukraine remain challenging, with setbacks in Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Kupyansk, and Toretsk. While leadership is working to address organizational and recruitment issues, it will take time for these changes to be implemented and impact the battlefield.
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3/ Russian forces are facing high losses, with tens of thousands of AWOL cases and a significant depletion of armored vehicles, which are being replaced by civilian transport. Nevertheless, they continue advancing in areas where Ukrainian defenses are stretched with few people
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4/ Ukraine has arguably achieved firepower parity with Russia in several frontline areas, primarily due to the extensive use of drones. However, despite this parity, Ukraine continues to lose ground, as a shortage of manpower on defensive positions enables Russian advances
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5/ Russia is focused on securing control over the T0504 highway, which runs through Pokrovsk, Kostyantynivka, and Bakhmut. Despite ongoing logistical problems, morale issues, and command competency, their advances are unlikely to slow down significantly in the immediate term
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6/ The final phase of Chasiv Yar's defense is nearing completion, and full occupation of the city appears imminent. While Chasiv Yar was a key barrier to Slovyansk, and Kramatorsk, the russians failed to break through defenses, and the defensive line simply shifted further
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7/ Russian forces in the Toretsk area, including units from the 51st CAA, are focused on gaining full control of the town and surrounding settlements. We expect them to push towards Kostyantynivka and advance north from Toretsk to hit the rears of Ukrainian units near Kurdyumivka
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8/ We assess that capturing Pokrovsk remains a key objective for Russian forces in 2025. This is evident in the intensity of the attacks and the significant concentration of forces, including units from the 90th Tank Division, 2nd and 41st CAA's, strengthened by additional units.
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9/ According to our sources on the ground, Russian forces have already begun making inroads into Zvirove, a outskirts settlement at the edge of Pokrovsk. Given the dense, continuous urban stretch from Zvirove to Pokrovsk, the two areas essentially form one large town.
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10/ Ukraine lacks effective countermeasures against gliding bombs, and FPV drones connected via fiber optic cables. The situation mirrors Avdiivka's last year but with much larger drone numbers. An estimated 7,000 civilians remain in the town, without access to basic necessities.
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11/ Velyka Novosilka, recently seized by Russian forces, was an important defensive and logistical node, particularly during Ukraine's summer of 2023 and the following year. However, its fall is unlikely to significantly alter the overall dynamics in the Donetsk sector.
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12/ The situation near Dvorichna in the Kupyansk area remains complicated for Ukrainian defenders. Russian forces have not only crossed the Oskil River but have also established a foothold on its right bank near Dvorichna, advanced into the settlement, and south&north of Zapadne
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13/ Given the concentration of forces near the Kupyansk area, including elements of the 1st Tank Army, our team assesses that russians are planning to assault the town itself. The scale of the buildup suggests that securing Kupyansk is a high-priority goal for the Russian command
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14/ We noted that during the construction of ammo and drone storage sites, Russians have improved construction methods to enhance resilience against attacks. This is likely due to the success of Ukrainian drone strikes on depots, airfields, and warehouses across Russia
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15/ Here we can see the construction of reinforced hangars at the Krymsk airfield in Krasnodar Krai, about 300 km from the frontline. While these structures will help conceal jets and provide protection, the continuous countermeasures also add to Russia's financial war burden
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16/ In summary, our team maintains a cautiously pessimistic view of Ukraine’s short-term battlefield outlook. However, we are monitoring positive key changes, including the shift to corps-level formations, halting new brigade formations, and improving training systems.
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17/ Both Ukraine and Russia lack the resources to achieve their strategic goals at the moment, and the high rates of AWOL on both sides suggest neither is prepared to sustain the war for another 3-4 years. Russian advances remain slow, while Ukraine struggles with recruitment
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18/ If you found this thread insightful, please like and share the first message to help increase its visibility. For a more detailed version of our report, visit our website:
frontelligence.substack.com/p/frontline-dy…
frontelligence.substack.com/p/frontline-dy…
