Gallup, the famous analytics firm known for its public opinion...

Gallup, the famous analytics firm known for its public opinion polls, recently released a study titled "Half of Ukrainians Want Quick, Negotiated End to War." The data might sound controversial, with many citing the headline without delving deeper into the survey. 🧵Thread:

2/ According to the latest survey, conducted in August and October 2024, an average of 52% of Ukrainians now favor a swift, negotiated resolution to the war. This a notable increase from 2023, when only 27% expressed this sentiment, reflecting a 25% increase in just one year

3/ At first glance, it might seem as though Ukrainians are giving up. However, the phrase "negotiated end to the war" is ambiguous: many, including myself, want peace and negotiations, but without capitulation. This nuance becomes clearer in the follow-up question of the poll.

4/ Of those who supported a negotiated end to the war, only 52% agreed that Ukraine should make territorial concessions as part of a peace deal. This suggests that the actual number of Ukrainians willing to negotiate and cede territory is closer to 27% of the total respondents.

5/ The poll also suggests that Ukrainians who favor a negotiated peace tend to prefer a larger role for the EU and the U.K. over the U.S. in the process. This shift is not surprising, considering the growing tensions and distrust between Kyiv and Washington over the past year.

6/ The bottom line is that no one wants this war in Ukraine - it was not Ukraine that launched the invasion. Everyone, including myself, is seeking peace and an end to the war. The problem, however, is that Moscow-driven negotiations are more about capitulation than negotiations

7/ This fact is often misrepresented in the media, and the narrative suggests that Putin is seeking peace while Zelensky is pushing for war. In reality, the situation is exactly the opposite. Zelensky is seeking a just peace, while Putin is pushing for war and capitulation

8/ As this poll shows, when you ask specifically whether people support negotiations or negotiations with territorial concessions, the responses differ significantly. If the question were framed around agreeing to capitulation, the "yes" numbers would likely be even lower.