Yield curve inversion has already set the stage for a recession...
Bravos Research@bravosresearch
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Nov 19, 2024
~1 min read
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Yield curve inversion has already set the stage for a recession
This had also happened in 1928, 1972, and 2000
All of them ended in a recession
Buckle up 🧵
This had also happened in 1928, 1972, and 2000
All of them ended in a recession
Buckle up 🧵
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2/ Trump has won the Presidential election
A key part of his appeal this year was his emphasis on boosting economic growth
Which resonated with many voters
Following his win, the stock market reacted positively
Fueled by promises of tax cuts and deregulation
A key part of his appeal this year was his emphasis on boosting economic growth
Which resonated with many voters
Following his win, the stock market reacted positively
Fueled by promises of tax cuts and deregulation
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3/ But similar optimism also surrounded the elections of 1928, 1972, and 2000
In each of those cases, US interest rates were near where they are today - around 5%
In each of those cases, US interest rates were near where they are today - around 5%
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4/ Another similarity?
In all 4 instances, short-term interest rates were higher than long-term rates
Which is a setup known as an inverted yield curve
This inversion is rare and often precedes economic recessions
In all 4 instances, short-term interest rates were higher than long-term rates
Which is a setup known as an inverted yield curve
This inversion is rare and often precedes economic recessions
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5/ In each of these historic cases, signs of a recession were present well before the election
Meaning that the incoming presidents had limited control over the economic outcome
Meaning that the incoming presidents had limited control over the economic outcome
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6/ This time we have a similar setup
But for now, the markets remain in a bullish structure
These are some of the key trendlines that we’re watching closely
But for now, the markets remain in a bullish structure
These are some of the key trendlines that we’re watching closely
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7/ View our track record for FREE on our website
Our members have had a solid year
With an avg. win of 17.37% and an avg. loss of just 3.78%
Get real-time Trade Alerts at:
bit.ly/BravosResearch
Our members have had a solid year
With an avg. win of 17.37% and an avg. loss of just 3.78%
Get real-time Trade Alerts at:
bit.ly/BravosResearch
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8/ Thanks for reading!
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And follow @bravosresearch for more market insights, finance and investment strategies
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