It's time for a Truck logistic thread on the Russian E105 N-S road...
Trent Telenko@TrentTelenko
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Sep 20, 2024
~4 min read
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It's time for a Truck logistic thread on the Russian E105 N-S road traced on the map below.
Given the RuAF rail traffic seizure into and out of Kursk Oblast.
This road is the logistical "schwerpunkt," or center of gravity, for the Kursk offensive.
Schwerpunkt Blindness🧵
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Given the RuAF rail traffic seizure into and out of Kursk Oblast.
This road is the logistical "schwerpunkt," or center of gravity, for the Kursk offensive.
Schwerpunkt Blindness🧵
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Once the AFU get on the E105, the Belgorod garrison and everything South of it is toast for good logistical reasons.
This is a Kesselschlacht - kettle battle - on an operational scale.
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This is a Kesselschlacht - kettle battle - on an operational scale.
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For reasons I went into in an earlier thread, the partially mechanized AFU truck logistics is lifting twice what Russian trucks can because AFU is using all terrain forklifts and pallets to load trucks.
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Trent Telenko@TrentTelenko
We are now seeing anecdotal evidence of the logistical chaos on the Russian railways behind the front lines in Kherson & Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
RuAF shell usage there is down ~36%.
Russian logistical pipeline🧵
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ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/389…
RuAF shell usage there is down ~36%.
Russian logistical pipeline🧵
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ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/389…
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BLUF:
Mechanized logistics - pallets & forklifts - means manual labor loading time is converted to time the truck is on the road moving supplies.
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Mechanized logistics - pallets & forklifts - means manual labor loading time is converted to time the truck is on the road moving supplies.
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Trent Telenko@TrentTelenko
Vershinin's "Truck beer math" assumed three round trips a day to 45 miles from a rail head, because pallets and forklifts.
Russia uses wooden boxes and conscript backs from trains to trucks.
This is less than 1/3 as productive as US Army mechanized logistics.
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Russia uses wooden boxes and conscript backs from trains to trucks.
This is less than 1/3 as productive as US Army mechanized logistics.
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Top end Western mechanized truck logistics is roughly three times as productive lifting tons of military supplies per truck than RuAF trucks.
This is due to all the "logistical enablers" in the supply chain.
And these enablers are not simply pallets & forklifts.
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This is due to all the "logistical enablers" in the supply chain.
And these enablers are not simply pallets & forklifts.
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I went into great detail about what those enablers were in Feb 2023 - things like forklift loading docks - and how they were literally visible from space for Western intelligence & OSINT types on X, if they cared to look.
No one has.
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No one has.
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Trent Telenko@TrentTelenko
This is going to be a mechanized logistics thread dealing with a frustration I am having with Western intelligence & OSINT analysis of Russian logistics.
We are going to start with this picture to calibrate on what real mechanized logistical infrastructure looks like.
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We are going to start with this picture to calibrate on what real mechanized logistical infrastructure looks like.
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Mechanized logistical enablers aren't a hard thing to see.
If you look closely at the end of the FMTV cargo beds in the post below. The shadows cast by HIAB cranes on FMTV trucks fairly pop out.
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If you look closely at the end of the FMTV cargo beds in the post below. The shadows cast by HIAB cranes on FMTV trucks fairly pop out.
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Trent Telenko@TrentTelenko
This is a US Army M777 Battalion motor pool at Fort Hood, Texas from Google maps (left).
There are several FMTV trucks in the central isle that are equipped with HIAB material handling equipment cranes.
(See the graphic right)
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There are several FMTV trucks in the central isle that are equipped with HIAB material handling equipment cranes.
(See the graphic right)
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When you look at Russian logistical facilities from space after having your eyes calibrated to truck mechanized logistics what you see is...
...19th century archaic.
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...19th century archaic.
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Trent Telenko@TrentTelenko
Now that your eyes have been calibrated to modern mechanized logistics...how strange does this Russian military warehouse infrastructure look?
Only three loading docks/bays in the warehouse & unfilled?
Where are the forklifts, telehandlers & the cranes?
(H/T @defmon)
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Only three loading docks/bays in the warehouse & unfilled?
Where are the forklifts, telehandlers & the cranes?
(H/T @defmon)
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That 19th century archaic logistical look is in every Russian logistical depot wherever you care to buy satellite photos of.
Yet Western Logistical intelligence has "mirror imaged" mechanized logistics on such photos, before spysats, for 80 years .
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Yet Western Logistical intelligence has "mirror imaged" mechanized logistics on such photos, before spysats, for 80 years .
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Stefan 🇺🇦@little7bear
@GlasnostGone @POTUS @VP @JustinTrudeau @EmmanuelMacron @theresa_may @RegSprecher Russia's mil fuel depot in Ilovaisk #Ukraine (B).Russian army fuel trucks there by Feb2015. Large white fuel containers in place by March2016. (A)is rail goods yard used by Russia to bring in fuel & mil supplies.
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There are bad careerist reasons for this mirror image failure.
Most senior intelligence types only have room for one idea in their head - the present group-think consensus that is required for promotion - which flies out of their heads the moment they open their mouths.
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Most senior intelligence types only have room for one idea in their head - the present group-think consensus that is required for promotion - which flies out of their heads the moment they open their mouths.
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Once you get a critical mass of careerist groupthink in an institution.
Those who gate keep the groupthink attack and drive out competent people who are willing to look outside the group think.🤦♂️
Real competence is a threat to incompetent group thinkers.🤡
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Those who gate keep the groupthink attack and drive out competent people who are willing to look outside the group think.🤦♂️
Real competence is a threat to incompetent group thinkers.🤡
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The regular "OSINT Jihads" you see on X when the subject of Russian logistics "outside the group think" comes up is another example of this.
I've an impressive list of such 'OSINT Group Think Jihadist' accounts on X.
They are the ones that block me.🤣🤣🤣
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I've an impressive list of such 'OSINT Group Think Jihadist' accounts on X.
They are the ones that block me.🤣🤣🤣
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This behavior is the bureaucratic
"You can't fire us all defense"
...that government bureaucracies often adopt to protect their self-licking ice cream cone/bureaucratic iron rice bowl.
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"You can't fire us all defense"
...that government bureaucracies often adopt to protect their self-licking ice cream cone/bureaucratic iron rice bowl.
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All of this takes us back to the issue of "Schwerpunkt Blindness" about E105's role in AFU's Kursk campaign.
AFU can do two supply truck round trips to Russia's one.
This makes AFU far more operationally agile than RuAF units in a mobile operation.
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AFU can do two supply truck round trips to Russia's one.
This makes AFU far more operationally agile than RuAF units in a mobile operation.
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AFU's logistically superior mobile operations are forcing Russians into mass evacuations of civilians.
Evacuating civilians will block roads used by RuAF reinforcements heading South.
This is a WW2 Wehrmacht tactic used in Poland, the low countries & France in 1939-40.
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Evacuating civilians will block roads used by RuAF reinforcements heading South.
This is a WW2 Wehrmacht tactic used in Poland, the low countries & France in 1939-40.
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OSINT Intuit™@UKikaski
It appears that the AFU has begun entering the #Tetkino area west of the #Seyn River (red outline) while the retreating Russians on the east side appear to be under heavy fire.
Russians sources report that their forces destroyed the railroad and vehicle bridge across the river in #Tetkino.
Russians sources report that their forces destroyed the railroad and vehicle bridge across the river in #Tetkino.
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Civilian evacuations aside, the best Russian game plan is to bug the heck out this natural pocket ASAP.
And despite pro-Russian account's B.S. claims of blowing 3 bridges on the Seym river will stop AFU.
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And despite pro-Russian account's B.S. claims of blowing 3 bridges on the Seym river will stop AFU.
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Only three bridges proximate to the bridge the Ukrainian PSU dropped with a smart bomb are down.
There are many more bridges as you get closer to Kursk city proper, including one Russian army pontoon bridge near the one PSU bombed.
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There are many more bridges as you get closer to Kursk city proper, including one Russian army pontoon bridge near the one PSU bombed.
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When, not if, Ukraine closes the E105 with FPV drone fires or physical occupation. The RuAF position at Belgorod will logistically collapse.
It sure as heck looks like the AFU wants a buffer zone along the Russian border that includes Belgorod.
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It sure as heck looks like the AFU wants a buffer zone along the Russian border that includes Belgorod.
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If the AFU cuts the bridges around Kursk city, the whole Russian force is trapped South of the Seym river in a pocket.
It's one of the reasons why the Biden Administration is blocking the use of both ATACMS and British Storm Shadows inside of Russia.
thetimes.com/world/russia-u…
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It's one of the reasons why the Biden Administration is blocking the use of both ATACMS and British Storm Shadows inside of Russia.
thetimes.com/world/russia-u…
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The top priority of the Escalation Management crowd & associated group thinkers in the USA & Germany is for Russia _NOT TO LOSE_.
Their careers depend on it!
Everything the Scholz and Biden governments do from now on should be looked at in this light.
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Their careers depend on it!
Everything the Scholz and Biden governments do from now on should be looked at in this light.
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The natural barriers for this Ukrainian glacis of captured Russian territory are the Seym river and the Siversky Donetsk River just East of Belgorod City with the E105 as the Schwerpunkt for achieving it.
People like @JakeSullivan46 never saw this coming because the...
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People like @JakeSullivan46 never saw this coming because the...
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...careerist senior Western Logistical intelligence group thinkers told @JakeSullivan46 & the NSC the lies they thought he wanted to hear.
This is the part of the 🧵where I get to throw my head back and laugh at all of them.
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This is the part of the 🧵where I get to throw my head back and laugh at all of them.
22/22 End
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@JakeSullivan46 @threadreaderapp unroll please
