a few thoughts on the state of the VP stakes so far… so i’ve...

7 views Aug 06, 2024 ~3 min read

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a few thoughts on the state of the VP stakes so far…

so i’ve studied political history for yrs & was one of <10% of Americans to correctly predict Trump would win in 2016

i believe the Dems VP pick is pivotal in this election & here’s why🧵

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first,no one should be under any illusions. this is still, in my assessment, a toss up race. why? 

yes,the enthusiasm is currently all on the Dem side, poll numbers showing big increases

but we’re still in a ‘honeymoon stage,’ w/the Dems yet to face an onslaught of attack ads..

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my concern lies with the overconfidence i see reflected in the Dem party

Hillary lost in 2016, in part, bc she took her base for granted, ignoring the schisms on the Left & focusing her campaign almost wholly on moderate Repubs & the illusive swing voter

i see parallels here

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which is why, in my analysis,the VP pick remains pivotal to this race. Dems continue to underestimate the number of voters-esp WW & WM-who will vote for Trump(again)

this election won’t be won by raging at these voters; it may feel good in the moment but it doesn’t win elections

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the Dems urgently need someone in the VP slot w/an ability to articulate a positive vision of America powerful enough to push back the fear mongering & incoming attacks of the right—the ‘performative utterances’ that give Americans permission to give in to their bleakest impulses

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i’ve made clear my analysis of Dems’ best picks for VP—Walz or Buttigieg; + Beshear

both Walz & Buttigieg are speaking of Dem policies in ways that are revolutionary—crafting deeply persuasive new arguments on Dem principles like school lunches, women’s privacy, health care, etc

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for yrs, the Dem party has appeared from the outside to be stuck in a perpetually reactive state of gridlock—always reacting to any & every manufactured culture war or seemingly ceding ground to the Republican or conservative outrage of the week/month/year

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Walz, Buttigieg & Beshear represent a strong departure from thistype of reactive politics—instead each appearing to offer positive,assertive visions ofan America where govt is focused not on perpetual beltway outrage/gridlock but on tangible ways to improve Americans’ daily lives

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and i believe it is these kinds of persuasive, positive visions of (& arguments for) America that are a necessary complement to Kamala’s pragmatic leadership style—and will be equally appealing to American voters in november

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the Dems imo need to avert what they appear to be on the verge of—which is a proxy battle between the old zombie politics of Clintonian triangulation (ie, appealing to swing voters & independents by pushing offthe Left) & a modern inclusive Dem politics that energizes the base

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my assessment of things as they stand now is that if the Dems stick w/this strategy of unifying their base (+ the Left), they will actually draw swing voters & independents to them & have a better chance at successfully creating a winning map

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but, more than that, as we look at the horrible hate crimes occurring in the UK & America, and the global atrocities being committed in the Middle East & around the world rn, a deeply positive & forward looking vision for America offers Dems (& the US) a unique opportunity…

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it’s an opportunity not only to push back on a rising tide of right wing fascism &bigotry but to offer generations of Americans akind of reset—an assertive vision ofAmerica that doesn’t derive from what we fear but from differences we can appreciate & values that bind us together

a few thoughts on the state of the VP stakes so far… so i’ve...

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