@cirnosad: Pepe Escobar has spread a rumo...

Pepe Escobar has spread a rumour given to him by an "Asian source" (read: disguised Israelis :)) making the Israel's virtual attack on Iran as real as it can possibly be:

A nuclear EMP attack carried out using, reportedly, a single F-35.

Is this true? No. I'll explain why. /🧵

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Let's hit this from multiple angles, first the Bayesian one.

Trial #1: Unrealistic # of attacking jets

If you were Israel and you wanted to carry out this sort of attack, would you launch a *single* unprotected jet carrying a single special payload?

What could go wrong? A lot!

Missions of consequences of this magnitude cannot be allowed to fail. You've taken a huge decision, which makes many follow on dependent decisions.

You would at least fly two jets in, owing for the likelihood of one breaking down, the weapon action failing or a shoot down.

In fact, even two aren't enough, depending on the munition type, if the F-35 could only carry one, you would ideally fly four jets and fire TWO MUNITIONS, with EMP, as they will have the same probability distribution:
10% rocket failure
10% weapon fizzle
x% shoot down
And so on.

The exact number of participating jets would be determined through the use of linear programming.

But a mission of this importance wouldn't just require the jets carrying out the attack, it would need a lot of other supporting personnel and units.

Which brings us to trial #2...

Trial #2: Lack of support

An F-35 going into a mission of this magnitude would not be left alone to do it, it would need a lot of support.
Where the hell is the escort for one? Supporting (2 in addition) F-35s and AWACS/ELINT ahead to identify threats is required at minimum.

Refuelling is also going to be an issue. Carrying this kind of play load dramatically reduces range. In fact this is the only point in favour of the story as there was a refuelling KC-135 flying around Iraq during the fake "attack".

These flights happen everyday => Coincidence!

Trial #3: Lack of supporting missions
Carrying out an attack like this is fraught with many risks. You have to take care of the inevitable reply. You have to lower your enemy's guard or misdirect their attention.
You could, for example, carry out a major attack elsewhere: Lebanon

You could, for example, start to carry out terror attacks and redirect the attention of planners and so on. None of these things happened. The only thing we heard of was an extremely stupid DJI drone attack...

Which was over and done with in a matter of seconds.

This only served to direct the Iranian's attention to the AIR and not the ground, which would reveal the F-35 EMP plot.

This is extremely unrealistic, the Israelis are not that stupid. If anything they would carry out *multiple* misdirections during this time.

Trial #4: Lack of allied action

If the Israelis authorised this action, you would be sure the US would know about it, and would ensure it was successful (if not, veto it). This means engaging the Russians, Syrians and other allies of Iran at the same time as the attack.

The story Pepe Escobar proposes has only 3 parties:

Israel
Iran
Russia

And supposedly, Russia came to Iran's aid and the US was AWOL. This is unrealistic. A sortie from Hamimeh would be immediately detected by the US -- at the very least the Israeli mission would be aborted!

Trial #5: EMP technology

There is some confusion about EMPs. Most people think *any* nuclear weapon produces a massive EMP even when detonated on the ground. This is not true! In order to produce a damaging EMP you must detonate a high yield thermonuclear bomb at high altitudes.

You must first detonate the nuclear bomb well into the ionosphere (60km+). Depending on the thermonuclear weapon design, the payload may emit more or less gamma radiation (0.1-0.5% of the yield).

Believe it or not the gamma rays are not actually what produces the EMP effect...

The gamma rays cause the rarified atmosphere (>15km) to ionise to a great degree, creating a huge amount of free electrons. These moving electrons then begin to spin due to the earth's magnetic field, producing INTENSE synchrotron radiation beams that scatter & create a high V/m.

How intense this synchrotron radiation process happens depends greatly on magnetic field strength. This varies from day to day and in geography. The parties most vulnerable to EMPs are actually Russia, the US and Australia (😋). Iran is in between. The area of effect is important

Detonating this weapon, of yield 1-10MT, 400km into the atmosphere would damage equipment in Russia and surrounding countries. This kind of extreme action would have kicked off a nuclear exchange almost immediately afterwards.

So a study would be needed.

Israel would need *just* the right yield at *just* the right altitude to contain most of the damage within Iran. This would also greatly reduce the damage caused to Iran -- it scales. This means most military sites would be protected... this would not degrade Iran's reply ability

Trial #6: Payload

Given you want to produce 50,000V/m on the ground, and Iran's weaker magnetic field, you will want a nuclear bomb of around 2MT. Using the 6MT/T rule and 50% efficiency for a compact warhead, that's a payload of around 700kg. Barely enough room in Blue Sparrow.

But discounting that, no compact warhead of this kind of magnitude has been reported outside of the warhead presumed to be carried on the now-discontinued configuration of the Topol-M, 1x1MT, occupying 100% of the payload and throw weight of 1.2T.
Not impossible, just "unlikely".

Trial #7: Uncertainty and risk

The magnetic field changes everyday, and the effect of EMPs has not been studied thoroughly since above atmospheric has been terminated. We had starfish prime, Hardtack and so on. What if the effect is much greater and Russia gets harmed for e.g.?

What if the effect was too little and Iran is given the ultimate casus belli, and the wide ability, to end Israel?
This would be very unwise.

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Overall, we can discount this entire fantasy as someone's imagination -- but worse, this sounds to me like a PSYOP. A bad one.

Like, why not just launch a Jericho missile and detonate it at high altitude? Fewer moving part, less likelihood of failure. Detonating an EMP doesn't involve any kind of plausible deniability. The entire world will know what happened, so no need to be coy about it.

The purpose of this entire follow up PSYOP is to make this failed PSYOP seem like something much bigger operation, which could only be stopped through the intervention of a much bigger player -- Russia, thus diminishing Iran and its new deterrence equation.

It's so transparent.

Thus I posit, that rather than an "Asian source", Pepe was talking to an Israeli, trying to fool him into doing his dirty work for him -- laundering the most disappointing, failed operation by Israel in its entire history.

Today, Israel is an international laughing stock. /End

Postscript: In case it is deleted, or retracted, this is what I was responding to.