I'd like to share this text by Oleksiy Kopytko on the significance...
Anton Gerashchenko@Gerashchenko_en
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Jan 21, 2024
~3 min read
I'd like to share this text by Oleksiy Kopytko on the significance of Ukraine shooting down the two aircraft and why Russian "military correspondents" have tried to present this as the case of "friendly fire." (Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief has officially confirmed that the aircraft were shot down by Ukrainian Air Forces).
The text is below:
"The incident" with A-50 and Il-22M aircraft over the Azov Sea is similar to the destruction of the "Moskva" cruiser in terms of the degree of comprehensive damage.
Now Russia is taking desperate measures to downplay the significance of what happened. But it only confirms that something really painful took place.
Russian media are actively spreading the message: the "incident," as a result of which a unique, expensive long-range reconnaissance aircraft was shot down and a flight command post was at least hit, was due to "friendly fire."
The rhetoric typical of Russian propaganda is used. "The system for recognizing friend or foe did not work" is a direct analogue to the "unauthorized descent of an aerial munition" in Voronezh region. As if the ammunition has free will - it decided on its own, it fell down on its own, demolishing half a village. This is done in order to preemptively eliminate responsibility and not to look for the guilty. The equipment failed, the most normal thing to happen.
The "friendly fire" version is thrown as the least evil.
The Kremlin cannot allow the Russians to think about Ukraine's ability to shoot down scarce airplanes deep behind the frontlines. Because this would have a strong demoralizing effect, especially on the occupation troops in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. Technical failure, as well as the military's negligence, is an organic explanation for the Russian Federation.
The trouble for the Kremlin is that these planes are too specific and flew as predictably as possible. That is why Russians themselves are asking in comments what must have happened to make these planes suddenly unrecognizable. Two at once.
By throwing in this version, the Russian government has caused indirect damage - it has reminded everyone what a danger the Russian Army poses to the civilian population of Russia and to itself.
Episodes in Voronezh region and Belgorod, missiles that fell in different regions of the Russian Federation together with yesterday's "incident" show that the Russian Air Force attacks whatever it can, and the Russian Air Defense Forces indiscriminately fire in all directions.
The key point is the damage to the combat potential of Russian troops. There are 7 or 8 long-range radar reconnaissance airplanes left in Russia. Their technical condition is unknown (one of these airplanes was damaged in Belarus last year and was hastily evacuated to Russia). The Russian Federation is not able to produce such airplanes. There is also a question whether they are capable of repairing them. If at least a couple are defective, it is a problem for the scale of the Russian Federation.
Russian propaganda is already trying to balance, massively introducing reports about losses of Ukrainian aviation, the collapse of the frontlines, etc. But the Kremlin's unpleasant message is already living on in the information field: Russia has no safety margin for critical technologies, and the Russian army is suffering irreparable losses of scarce equipment as a result of the attack on Ukraine. The loss of which will be compensated with cannon fodder.
It is likely that in order to divert people's attention, the Russian authorities will demand that the military urgently organize some kind of "victory" or "take" some village. This will lead to an even greater increase in the losses of Russian troops.
✒️: Oleksii Kopytko
📹: Southern Ukrainian Defense Forces, probably the last flight of the A-50 aircraft
twitter.com/Gerashchenko_e…
The text is below:
"The incident" with A-50 and Il-22M aircraft over the Azov Sea is similar to the destruction of the "Moskva" cruiser in terms of the degree of comprehensive damage.
Now Russia is taking desperate measures to downplay the significance of what happened. But it only confirms that something really painful took place.
Russian media are actively spreading the message: the "incident," as a result of which a unique, expensive long-range reconnaissance aircraft was shot down and a flight command post was at least hit, was due to "friendly fire."
The rhetoric typical of Russian propaganda is used. "The system for recognizing friend or foe did not work" is a direct analogue to the "unauthorized descent of an aerial munition" in Voronezh region. As if the ammunition has free will - it decided on its own, it fell down on its own, demolishing half a village. This is done in order to preemptively eliminate responsibility and not to look for the guilty. The equipment failed, the most normal thing to happen.
The "friendly fire" version is thrown as the least evil.
The Kremlin cannot allow the Russians to think about Ukraine's ability to shoot down scarce airplanes deep behind the frontlines. Because this would have a strong demoralizing effect, especially on the occupation troops in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. Technical failure, as well as the military's negligence, is an organic explanation for the Russian Federation.
The trouble for the Kremlin is that these planes are too specific and flew as predictably as possible. That is why Russians themselves are asking in comments what must have happened to make these planes suddenly unrecognizable. Two at once.
By throwing in this version, the Russian government has caused indirect damage - it has reminded everyone what a danger the Russian Army poses to the civilian population of Russia and to itself.
Episodes in Voronezh region and Belgorod, missiles that fell in different regions of the Russian Federation together with yesterday's "incident" show that the Russian Air Force attacks whatever it can, and the Russian Air Defense Forces indiscriminately fire in all directions.
The key point is the damage to the combat potential of Russian troops. There are 7 or 8 long-range radar reconnaissance airplanes left in Russia. Their technical condition is unknown (one of these airplanes was damaged in Belarus last year and was hastily evacuated to Russia). The Russian Federation is not able to produce such airplanes. There is also a question whether they are capable of repairing them. If at least a couple are defective, it is a problem for the scale of the Russian Federation.
Russian propaganda is already trying to balance, massively introducing reports about losses of Ukrainian aviation, the collapse of the frontlines, etc. But the Kremlin's unpleasant message is already living on in the information field: Russia has no safety margin for critical technologies, and the Russian army is suffering irreparable losses of scarce equipment as a result of the attack on Ukraine. The loss of which will be compensated with cannon fodder.
It is likely that in order to divert people's attention, the Russian authorities will demand that the military urgently organize some kind of "victory" or "take" some village. This will lead to an even greater increase in the losses of Russian troops.
✒️: Oleksii Kopytko
📹: Southern Ukrainian Defense Forces, probably the last flight of the A-50 aircraft
twitter.com/Gerashchenko_e…
