Forecasting Research Institute (@Research_FRI)

Is it possible to spot a good forecast by its rationale? We used LLMs to score the reasoning behind 55,000+ forecasts and test the link between forecast accuracy and written rationales. We found that: • Causal reasoning is much more prevalent than statistical argumentation • It's easier to identi...

We completed the most comprehensive study of how economists and AI experts think AI will affect the U.S. economy. They predict major AI progress—but no dramatic break from economic trends: GDP growth rates similar to today's and a moderate decline in labor force participation. However, when asked ...

What do experts and superforecasters think about the future of AI research and development? In Wave 4 of the Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP), we asked top AI experts to forecast progress in AI R&D, hiring, company valuations, data center buildout, and more. Here’s what you need to know 🧵...

🏆 In October, we invited external teams to submit to ForecastBench, our AI forecasting benchmark. The challenge? Beat superforecasters—using any tools available (scaffolding, ensembling, etc). The result? External submissions are now the most accurate models on our leaderboard—though superforecast...