Capital Flows (@Globalflows)
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<i><a target="_blank" href="https://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/p/the-misdirection-play-warsh-and-bessents" color="blue">The global AI arms race relies on two traders: Warsh and Bessent</a></i><a target="_blank" href="https://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/p/the-misdirection-play-warsh-and-bessents" ...
Real interest rates have been driving the pullback in equities and Bitcoin You will notice that 2 year real interest rates have begun to drag up credit spreads, which is a very clear signal about how liquidity is impacting risk assets Here is how to understand this 🧵 ...
THE ILLUSION OF MONEY 🧵 Most people think of money as something concrete, cash in hand or deposits in a bank account. That is an illusion. Money is not a fixed thing. It is a web of asset and liability relationships across the entire financial system....
Intraday Trading Papers: 100% about providing execution liquidity ...
Why Investors Are Forced to Buy Equities: The Macro Constraints That Create Melt-Ups When liquidity rises and growth improves, capital isn’t free to go anywhere—it’s forced into equities by structural constraints. Melt-ups aren’t a choice. They’re a function of flows.🧵👇...
The concerns around recession, inflation, and the Fed frame WHERE equities are going on a cyclical basis. The key is aligning the structural macro drivers with cyclical changes and then executing trades when positioning is offside. Let's break each of these down (Pt1) 🧵👇...
There is a reason for real corporate profits putting pressure on real GDP. We live in a nominal world but when corporate profits are negative in real terms, it needs to be reflected in the tangible components of the economy such as output and employment. ...
We are entering one of the most violent periods in markets but this isn't driven by a recession, it's driven by the credit cycle The sheer amount of money being added to the system right now is creating an environment for equities that is very rare Let's dig in 🧵👇...
Central banks have fallen behind the curve, and we are now approaching a macro inflection point that will squeeze out positioning and cause capitulation across interest rates, equities, and the global economy Let's dig in 🧵👇...