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âTwo blockades, two clocks.â Thatâs how Washington is framing the Iran war. Itâs wrong. A century of evidence shows economic pressure alone almost never forces states to concede on core security issues. Hereâs what everyone is missing:
The famous claim: sanctions work ~33% of the time. Reality (after controlling for military force): <5% success rate Most âwinsâ werenât sanctions at allâthey were backed by coups, invasions, or bombing Sanctions donât coerce -- They disguise force
More pain â more concession --Cuba: 60+ years, no regime change. --Iraq: ~50% GDP collapse in the 1990sâno surrender. --Russia (2022â): massive sanctions, no strategic reversal. Why? Because scarcity strengthens regime's control over what's left
Sanctions donât end conflicts. They transform them. The Pattern: Economic pressure -> No results -> Political frustration -> Military escalation Sanctions arenât the alternative to war Theyâre often the on-ramp to it
Iran today = zero-sum stakes. Regime survival vs. U.S. credibility That means: -- No quick âblinkâ -- No short clock (for either) -- Months of disruption, escalation risk rising If you want to understand what happens nextâand what everyone is getting wrong go to substack Escalation Trap Live briefing Sunday 5pm ET