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History is REPEATING Buckle up. A thread 🧵
2/ June 2009, June 2020, and June 2025 have each kicked off V-shaped recoveries for stocks In all 3 cases, the S&P 500 surged more than 20% in just 55 trading days Something that hasn’t occurred at any other point in the last 15 years
3/ In both 2009 and 2020, the rally didn’t stop there The S&P 500 added another 20% in the following 80 days So far, 2025 is shaping up to be another strong year for us
4/ At Bravos Research, we’ve been riding this bull market with our members Locking in multiple double-digit wins on tech trades While keeping drawdowns minimal Here’s our Q2 2025 track record Find our entire track record at: <a target="_blank" href="https://bit.ly/BravosResearch" color="blue">bit.ly/BravosResearch</a>
5/ When we overlay the 2009 V-shaped recovery onto today’s market rally, the resemblance is uncanny If 2025 continues to follow the script of 2009 or 2020, it could make the returns we've had year-to-date look like child's play
6/ These are the conditions where our trading strategy can provide incredible returns Before we dive deeper into what could unfold next, I want to wish you all a Happy 4th of July As always, we’re running a major sale to celebrate
7/ That means a 30% DISCOUNT (expiring today) to access all our trades and our week-by-week trading blueprint If you’ve been thinking about joining, now’s the time Because if this trend continues, the opportunity could be massive <a target="_blank" href="https://bit.ly/BravosResearch" color="blue">bit.ly/BravosResearch</a>
8/ Let’s begin by revisiting the panic we saw during the April 2025 crash The S&P 500 volatility index spiked above 40 This is the highest level since the market’s reaction to Trump’s tariff announcement
9/ This level of volatility hadn’t been seen since 2020, and before that, 2009 In both of those, extreme fear preceded powerful V-shaped recoveries
10/ But while volatility reached similar levels in 2025, it didn’t spike as high as it did in 2009 or 2020 And there’s another key difference: Unlike those years, the US wasn’t in a recession in April 2025
11/ Back in 2009 and 2020, unemployment shot above 10% And the Fed responded with 0% interest rates and aggressive quantitative easing to jumpstart the economy That policy backdrop played a major role in fueling those rallies
12/ In contrast, the 2025 unemployment rate is just 4.2% - low by historical standards And although the Fed has eased a bit over the past year, rates remain elevated to prevent inflation from roaring back
13/ On top of that, the Fed has been shrinking its balance sheet via quantitative tightening since 2022 So draining liquidity from the system instead of flooding it like in 2009 and 2020 his makes today’s macro environment much different
14/ Still, different macro conditions don’t rule out similar results In recent weeks, S&P 500 earnings have seen multiple sharp upward revisions This comes after 15 consecutive weeks of downside earnings revisions fueled by tariff fears
15/ But overall it seems US corporations are actually coming out on the other side of these fears stronger This is the largest streak in upwards S&P 500 earnings revisions since 2020 and 2021 Which helped drive exceptional stock market performance back then
16/ The same was true in 2009 Earnings revisions surged after the financial crisis and fueled a V-shaped stock market recovery The revisions we're seeing today are a strong foundation for continued gains into year-end
17/ But it’s unlikely we’ll see something as intense as 2020 or 2009 S&P 500 earnings are growing at about 10% annually Which is healthy and supportive of good market returns
18/ But, in 2009 and 2020, earnings reached an annual growth rate of 30 to 40% Back then, corporations were recovering from severe declines in their earnings during the recession And were also benefiting from easy financial conditions by the Fed
19/ So during those past recoveries, the market benefited from 3 to 4 times more earnings growth than we’re seeing today That’s why, despite the similar rallies, the underlying environment today is clearly different and those cases aren’t ideal forward models
20/ But there is one historical episode that does match, and that’s 1998 That year, the market also suffered a sharp drop followed by a fast recovery With the S&P 500 gaining over 20% in just 55 trading days, just like today
