@bravosresearch: History is REPEATINGBuckle u...

History is REPEATING

Buckle up.

A thread 🧵

2/ June 2009, June 2020, and June 2025 have each kicked off V-shaped recoveries for stocks

In all 3 cases, the S&P 500 surged more than 20% in just 55 trading days

Something that hasn’t occurred at any other point in the last 15 years

3/ In both 2009 and 2020, the rally didn’t stop there

The S&P 500 added another 20% in the following 80 days

So far, 2025 is shaping up to be another strong year for us

4/ At Bravos Research, we’ve been riding this bull market with our members

Locking in multiple double-digit wins on tech trades

While keeping drawdowns minimal

Here’s our Q2 2025 track record

Find our entire track record at:

bit.ly/BravosResearch

5/ When we overlay the 2009 V-shaped recovery onto today’s market rally, the resemblance is uncanny

If 2025 continues to follow the script of 2009 or 2020, it could make the returns we've had year-to-date look like child's play

6/ These are the conditions where our trading strategy can provide incredible returns

Before we dive deeper into what could unfold next, I want to wish you all a Happy 4th of July

As always, we’re running a major sale to celebrate

7/ That means a 30% DISCOUNT (expiring today) to access all our trades and our week-by-week trading blueprint

If you’ve been thinking about joining, now’s the time

Because if this trend continues, the opportunity could be massive

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8/ Let’s begin by revisiting the panic we saw during the April 2025 crash

The S&P 500 volatility index spiked above 40

This is the highest level since the market’s reaction to Trump’s tariff announcement

9/ This level of volatility hadn’t been seen since 2020, and before that, 2009

In both of those, extreme fear preceded powerful V-shaped recoveries

10/ But while volatility reached similar levels in 2025, it didn’t spike as high as it did in 2009 or 2020

And there’s another key difference: Unlike those years, the US wasn’t in a recession in April 2025

11/ Back in 2009 and 2020, unemployment shot above 10%

And the Fed responded with 0% interest rates and aggressive quantitative easing to jumpstart the economy

That policy backdrop played a major role in fueling those rallies

12/ In contrast, the 2025 unemployment rate is just 4.2% - low by historical standards

And although the Fed has eased a bit over the past year, rates remain elevated to prevent inflation from roaring back

13/ On top of that, the Fed has been shrinking its balance sheet via quantitative tightening since 2022

So draining liquidity from the system instead of flooding it like in 2009 and 2020 his makes today’s macro environment much different

14/ Still, different macro conditions don’t rule out similar results

In recent weeks, S&P 500 earnings have seen multiple sharp upward revisions

This comes after 15 consecutive weeks of downside earnings revisions fueled by tariff fears

15/ But overall it seems US corporations are actually coming out on the other side of these fears stronger

This is the largest streak in upwards S&P 500 earnings revisions since 2020 and 2021

Which helped drive exceptional stock market performance back then

16/ The same was true in 2009

Earnings revisions surged after the financial crisis and fueled a V-shaped stock market recovery

The revisions we're seeing today are a strong foundation for continued gains into year-end

17/ But it’s unlikely we’ll see something as intense as 2020 or 2009

S&P 500 earnings are growing at about 10% annually

Which is healthy and supportive of good market returns

18/ But, in 2009 and 2020, earnings reached an annual growth rate of 30 to 40%

Back then, corporations were recovering from severe declines in their earnings during the recession

And were also benefiting from easy financial conditions by the Fed

19/ So during those past recoveries, the market benefited from 3 to 4 times more earnings growth than we’re seeing today

That’s why, despite the similar rallies, the underlying environment today is clearly different and those cases aren’t ideal forward models

20/ But there is one historical episode that does match, and that’s 1998

That year, the market also suffered a sharp drop followed by a fast recovery

With the S&P 500 gaining over 20% in just 55 trading days, just like today

21/ In 1998, S&P 500 earnings were growing at 10% annually

Unemployment was low

The Fed held rates high

And the internet boom was just starting to accelerate, much like today’s AI boom

Macro and market conditions were remarkably similar

22/ When we overlay the 1998 price action onto today’s rally, it's also quite an incredible match

23/ In the short term, we do expect a minor pullback over the next month

But if the S&P 500 continues to follow the 1998 trajectory, it could reach 7,000 by year-end

24/ We believe this is a real possibility

We’re positioning ourselves to ride the bull and to outperform the index with our clients

If you want in, don’t miss our 4th of July 30% DISCOUNT expiring today at:

bit.ly/BravosResearch

25/ Thanks for reading!

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