WARNING: Housing defaults have skyrocketed
This is unlike anything we’ve seen in a decade
A thread 🧵
2/ The Fed had been on an unprecedented hiking cycle
Taking rates from near 0% to 5.5% in just 1.5 years
Ensuring tight monetary policy in the process
Taking rates from near 0% to 5.5% in just 1.5 years
Ensuring tight monetary policy in the process
3/ High rates have negatively impacted the housing market
Given the high rate sensitivity of the sector
Given the high rate sensitivity of the sector
4/ During the recent hiking cycle, 30-year mortgage rates broke out a key downtrend line
It rose from 2.65% to a high of around 8%
And is still around 7%
It rose from 2.65% to a high of around 8%
And is still around 7%
5/ Elevated rates made the housing market very unaffordable
Homebuyer affordability fell to the lowest levels in 35 years
And still remains at very low levels
Homebuyer affordability fell to the lowest levels in 35 years
And still remains at very low levels
6/ Mortgage demand also plummeted
As high borrowing costs caused demand destruction
As high borrowing costs caused demand destruction
7/ Rising unaffordability + high inflation put pressure on consumers
Who have started defaulting rapidly
Delinquency rate for multifamily housing has hit levels unseen in a decade
Who have started defaulting rapidly
Delinquency rate for multifamily housing has hit levels unseen in a decade
8/ Even now, people don’t feel like buying homes
Buying conditions have collapsed, reaching levels only seen 2 times since 1960:
- 1974
- 1981
Buying conditions have collapsed, reaching levels only seen 2 times since 1960:
- 1974
- 1981
9/ Until rates become cheaper again or consumers' financial conditions improve, housing pressure is likely to remain
At Bravos Research, we’re staying patient
We want to see real bottoming signals before we add trades in the Real Estate sector
At Bravos Research, we’re staying patient
We want to see real bottoming signals before we add trades in the Real Estate sector
10/ You can follow all our trades at Bravos Research
Check out our homepage to see our full track record
In 2024, we locked in a 60% annual return
That’s 2x that of the S&P 500
Check out our homepage to see our full track record
In 2024, we locked in a 60% annual return
That’s 2x that of the S&P 500
11/ We’ve been guiding our clients through this market volatility
Achieving 85 winning positions (out of 129) in just the last year
With an avg profit of 16.65% and avg loss of just 3.67%
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bit.ly/BravosResearch
Achieving 85 winning positions (out of 129) in just the last year
With an avg profit of 16.65% and avg loss of just 3.67%
Try our service with a 30% DISCOUNT that ends soon!
bit.ly/BravosResearch
12/ Thanks for reading!
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