@Brad_Setser: So much for reports by April 1...

So much for reports by April 1, and a deliberative process --

President Trump is a true believer "“The tariffs are going to make us very rich and very strong" --

1/

Pharmaceutical imports, especially from low tax jurisdictions, have exploded recently -- they are up about 3x after Trump's tax cuts created a lower de facto tax rate (GILTI, at 10.5%) on offshore than onshore production

2/

Tariffing imported chips (components for US production) but not imported final goods with embedded chips would normally be viewed as a self defeating move -- most chips aren't imported as "chips" but as components of electronics/ autos ...

3/

Maybe there is something sophisticated behind these moves -- but right now they seem likely to show the limits of using tariffs as all all purpose tool for economic and foreign policy ...

4/

wsj.com/politics/elect…

4/

love how the kink in the curve on pharma imports is right at the end of 2017, when the TCJA passed --

One of my better calls was saying from the start that it would increase not reduce the incentive to offshore production

5/5