@bravosresearch: Inflation-adjusted S&P 500...
@bravosresearch
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Oct 30, 2024
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Inflation-adjusted S&P 500 is sending a WARNING sign
This won’t end well
A thread 🧵
This won’t end well
A thread 🧵
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2/ The S&P 500 is up over 65,000% since 1918
But when adjusted for inflation, the market's return falls to 5,000%
But when adjusted for inflation, the market's return falls to 5,000%
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3/ This is where the inflation-adjusted chart helps
While the S&P 500 rises over time, it also shows significant declines relative to inflation
Historically, the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 has moved within a relatively stable range
While the S&P 500 rises over time, it also shows significant declines relative to inflation
Historically, the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 has moved within a relatively stable range
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4/ When the S&P 500 hit the top of this range, it marked extremely poor times to invest
This happened in:
- 1913
- 1929
- 1965
- 1999
In each case, the market eventually fell, with at least a 60% drop in inflation-adjusted value
This happened in:
- 1913
- 1929
- 1965
- 1999
In each case, the market eventually fell, with at least a 60% drop in inflation-adjusted value
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5/ Most agree the stock market is overextended on an inflation-adjusted basis
But what does that mean for the actual (non-adjusted) S&P 500?
These are the type insights we regularly cover in our Investment Strategy Videos
And provide actionable Trade ideas at:
bit.ly/BravosResearch
But what does that mean for the actual (non-adjusted) S&P 500?
These are the type insights we regularly cover in our Investment Strategy Videos
And provide actionable Trade ideas at:
bit.ly/BravosResearch
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6/ Just because inflation-adjusted returns drop doesn’t mean the S&P 500 itself has to fall
Particularly if inflation runs out of control
Particularly if inflation runs out of control
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7/ For now, US inflation is cooling
Key commodities like wheat, chicken, oil, and natural gas have all dropped in price
Which reduces the risk of a major inflationary surge
Key commodities like wheat, chicken, oil, and natural gas have all dropped in price
Which reduces the risk of a major inflationary surge
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8/ If inflation remains low, stocks could continue to melt up
Resembling periods like the late 1990s, 1980s, and late 1920s—times of low and stable inflation
Each of these melt-ups eventually ended in a crash
And we could be on a similar path this time as well
Resembling periods like the late 1990s, 1980s, and late 1920s—times of low and stable inflation
Each of these melt-ups eventually ended in a crash
And we could be on a similar path this time as well
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9/ Our members are extremely well-positioned for this market rise
With names like $SLV already up double digits since initiation
Find all our Active Trades with their Setups at:
bit.ly/BravosResearch
With names like $SLV already up double digits since initiation
Find all our Active Trades with their Setups at:
bit.ly/BravosResearch
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10/ View our track record for FREE on our website
We’ve had an avg. win of 17.37% and an avg. loss of just 3.78% in 2024
Get real-time Trade Alerts at:
bit.ly/BravosResearch
We’ve had an avg. win of 17.37% and an avg. loss of just 3.78% in 2024
Get real-time Trade Alerts at:
bit.ly/BravosResearch
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11/ Thanks for reading!
If you enjoyed this thread, please ❤️ and 🔁 the first tweet below
And follow @bravosresearch for more market insights, finance and investment strategies
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